Very busy as you might guess so pardon the brevity of this. I agree with a good deal of this, but the Baltics are entirely off limits. Don't underestimate the desire for Nato to remain viable to US decision makers or Russia's relative decline. However, I think Putin knows this. The Novorussiya/Black Sea point is well taken and a key to this. It is important to look at this as Putin does. But also, as this piece is about, to look at what is going on in DC between realists around Trump and neocons/Wilsonians clustered around Biden. Thanks as ever for making me think
The Ukrainian demographics is in a tailspin with their population heading to the 15-20 million mark (from 51 million in 1991 when the Soviet Union crashed) and that is pre emigrations and pre Russians living in Ukraine. There are no 20-25 year adults to begin with (collapse of birth rate in 1991). Sending women to the front destroys what birth rate is left.
Besides that, not only is the US not strategically interested, but the rest of us is not economically interested either. The economy in Ukraine is built on participation in the Russian supply and value chains (since ever, since the 18th century). Ukraine and its economy has been built by the Russian Empire (Katharina) and the Soviet Union (Stalin): it is the only times when Ukraine was actually economically well off (irrespective of the nationalist frustrations).
Ukraine will always be just next door to Russia and crucial to the Black Sea, which is crucial to Russia too. Ukraine is valuable to Russia as a gateway to the Middle East, Asia and Africa and worthless to everyone else. War or no war. EU or no EU. NATO or no NATO. Go see Putin and Russia to get it rebuilt after the war, as did Stalin in 1946. Because we will not do it.
I will add another one: Putin (Russia) has more than enough landmass - nobody has more. But he needs logistics, which is seaboard. 24/7/365 seaboard which serves his cities and his economy better. He is far more interested in the Black Sea than in Ukraine.
To some extent the nationalism in Ukraine is a threat to the Russian "empire" with oblasts and autonomous regions with partially other languages and other peoples than Russian. A restive Ukraine is a threat to the internal security of Russia (the game the State Department and the Pentagon have been playing).
But ultimately, Putin needs the Black Sea to develop his southern economy, the Volga region and Novorossiya.
His interest in the Baltics comes from the same origin.
Both are crucial to Belarus: south Belarus needs the Black Sea, north and west Belarus needs safe transfer to and trading from Kaliningrad.
Think about the Baltics: 30% speaks Russian as their first language, and that is before the immigrations from Russia to the Baltics which are ongoing. Now the highest growth in these populations is from Russian speaking folk, the rest of the population is collapsing with a submicroscopic birth rate only to be spotted with quantum physical methods. Putin (or more likely his successor) will not need a war to acquire these.
Your ports and facilities (LNG, refineries) on the Atlantic and the Pacific are at risk if the US approves internal attacks. Your country is not, but your seaboard is.
Subs and 6 Mach Kinzhals are up for it as of today. Being nuclear propulsion they go sub in Archangelsk, up in front of Baltimore and then back sub to Archangelsk. They are shaped to be silent, stealth in the water, and don't communicate to base having been given their orders and a competent commander. It can be done!
Putin will not approve it right now, but the tech is there.
China will have it before 2030, probably already has it.
Hi Erik,
Very busy as you might guess so pardon the brevity of this. I agree with a good deal of this, but the Baltics are entirely off limits. Don't underestimate the desire for Nato to remain viable to US decision makers or Russia's relative decline. However, I think Putin knows this. The Novorussiya/Black Sea point is well taken and a key to this. It is important to look at this as Putin does. But also, as this piece is about, to look at what is going on in DC between realists around Trump and neocons/Wilsonians clustered around Biden. Thanks as ever for making me think
I think the situation is even far worse.
The Ukrainian demographics is in a tailspin with their population heading to the 15-20 million mark (from 51 million in 1991 when the Soviet Union crashed) and that is pre emigrations and pre Russians living in Ukraine. There are no 20-25 year adults to begin with (collapse of birth rate in 1991). Sending women to the front destroys what birth rate is left.
Besides that, not only is the US not strategically interested, but the rest of us is not economically interested either. The economy in Ukraine is built on participation in the Russian supply and value chains (since ever, since the 18th century). Ukraine and its economy has been built by the Russian Empire (Katharina) and the Soviet Union (Stalin): it is the only times when Ukraine was actually economically well off (irrespective of the nationalist frustrations).
Ukraine will always be just next door to Russia and crucial to the Black Sea, which is crucial to Russia too. Ukraine is valuable to Russia as a gateway to the Middle East, Asia and Africa and worthless to everyone else. War or no war. EU or no EU. NATO or no NATO. Go see Putin and Russia to get it rebuilt after the war, as did Stalin in 1946. Because we will not do it.
I will add another one: Putin (Russia) has more than enough landmass - nobody has more. But he needs logistics, which is seaboard. 24/7/365 seaboard which serves his cities and his economy better. He is far more interested in the Black Sea than in Ukraine.
To some extent the nationalism in Ukraine is a threat to the Russian "empire" with oblasts and autonomous regions with partially other languages and other peoples than Russian. A restive Ukraine is a threat to the internal security of Russia (the game the State Department and the Pentagon have been playing).
But ultimately, Putin needs the Black Sea to develop his southern economy, the Volga region and Novorossiya.
His interest in the Baltics comes from the same origin.
Both are crucial to Belarus: south Belarus needs the Black Sea, north and west Belarus needs safe transfer to and trading from Kaliningrad.
Think about the Baltics: 30% speaks Russian as their first language, and that is before the immigrations from Russia to the Baltics which are ongoing. Now the highest growth in these populations is from Russian speaking folk, the rest of the population is collapsing with a submicroscopic birth rate only to be spotted with quantum physical methods. Putin (or more likely his successor) will not need a war to acquire these.
Your ports and facilities (LNG, refineries) on the Atlantic and the Pacific are at risk if the US approves internal attacks. Your country is not, but your seaboard is.
Subs and 6 Mach Kinzhals are up for it as of today. Being nuclear propulsion they go sub in Archangelsk, up in front of Baltimore and then back sub to Archangelsk. They are shaped to be silent, stealth in the water, and don't communicate to base having been given their orders and a competent commander. It can be done!
Putin will not approve it right now, but the tech is there.
China will have it before 2030, probably already has it.
Justification? You can craft one.