Yes Erik I am certain from our talks that the whole GOP tribe (in all its bewildering guises) favours the corporate tax cut that is coming. And yes, what most Europeans dont understand is the incredible resilience of the private sector; fracking was indeed a wildcatter innovation, as are the vast majority on productivity improvements in American economic history. The federal government works poorly; but there is plenty of room (again unlike in Europe) for the private sector to surmount this. That is what we are about to see again
Yes Dianne, that’s just it! Game changer is the point. And historically that is often messy; its the outputs that matter. And we are just starting a very different era. Again, history shows us the way.
All you hear from the left is that tariffs will raise prices, and you hear nothing else. When you hear the whole story I.e it makes such sense!! The corporate tax cuts which will stimulate investments, new American businesses, selling our oil overseas..You have to look at the whole picture.
And is it just me, or does Trump seem a lot calmer? Maybe in some way, having 4 years between his terms will end up being a good thing. It feels that way already
Hi Terri, yes, its the whole picture on inflation that matters; last time around Trump’s admin had a much lower rate of inflation than Biden—you have to add in the de-inflationary aspects of your program as well as the inflationary ones! The tariffs (as we see over yesterday’s shot over the bow with Canada and Mexico) are there to facilitate more than economics (in this case over fentanyl and immigration), that’s the other point.
Yes, he is calmer! I think all that has happened to him has weathered him in a good way. Biography is destiny!
15% corporate tax rate - why would you ever invest anywhere else? (Completely irrelevant, but it is an OECD benchmark that as far as I know, safeguards you from foreign criticism on transfer pricing, i.e. a 15% rate is final and not subject to foreign risk of recapture). I think only Ireland has for its own promotion, the low 15% corporate tax rate (and this has been tolerated by the EU for specific Irish promotion) and there are some special (but contestable) tax treatments in other places such as Malta. But you would not risk jail for 5% in Malta, if the US is only 15% and final. There is a further consequence that transfer pricing etc. favours collecting moneys where there is discretion as to "who owned what where in the world" (such as for royalties, patents, brands etc.) direct in the USA. Apple, Microsoft, Merck etc. like to collect and channel crossborder payments to "coordination centres" in tax havens (Ireland, Malta, Cayman Islands, Panama...) rather than return the money to the US for taxation in the US and ultimately into US dividends or US share buybacks, revitalising the efficient flow of capital instead of clogging the money indefinitely and unproductively in tax havens.
Lowering income taxes for the entry level, low wage, temporary or part time workers, tip income etc. will work deflationary too, or feather off any increase in cost of living for those people in particular. It further extends the grassroots pull of the republicans.
Flipping in tariffs for reducing internal income tax and corporate tax is a priori neither inflationary nor deflationary. This is more Reagan's "supply side" approach. Was flat-out laughed at last time here in Europe but it accelerated the US economy 1980-2000 way beyond Europe. Clinton surfed it for two more terms. Once the growth comes through, Laffer curve pays down fiscal imbalances. It might be a good idea to read up on some of the Paul Craig Roberts stuff of the Reagan era.
Note: the fracking was not "Department of Energy" (nor even the large US oil multinationals) but US independent wildcatters who came up with it. Cheap energy will be deflationary for sure, and further supported by exiting the Paris agreement. It will make the US economy (including manufacturing and agriculture) very competitive. So I would be bearish oil & gas (price) but bullish the rest of the economy which processes from there. Bullish US$ and US equity, we have already seen that play out but there will be a 2nd and a 3rd round.
Yes Erik I am certain from our talks that the whole GOP tribe (in all its bewildering guises) favours the corporate tax cut that is coming. And yes, what most Europeans dont understand is the incredible resilience of the private sector; fracking was indeed a wildcatter innovation, as are the vast majority on productivity improvements in American economic history. The federal government works poorly; but there is plenty of room (again unlike in Europe) for the private sector to surmount this. That is what we are about to see again
Thank you John! I understand so much better now!
Well, I must say "I love messy".. out of chaos come order...And "out put" is one thousand percent correct ! excellent again John
We are on to a game change chapter..........
Yes Dianne, that’s just it! Game changer is the point. And historically that is often messy; its the outputs that matter. And we are just starting a very different era. Again, history shows us the way.
All you hear from the left is that tariffs will raise prices, and you hear nothing else. When you hear the whole story I.e it makes such sense!! The corporate tax cuts which will stimulate investments, new American businesses, selling our oil overseas..You have to look at the whole picture.
And is it just me, or does Trump seem a lot calmer? Maybe in some way, having 4 years between his terms will end up being a good thing. It feels that way already
Hi Terri, yes, its the whole picture on inflation that matters; last time around Trump’s admin had a much lower rate of inflation than Biden—you have to add in the de-inflationary aspects of your program as well as the inflationary ones! The tariffs (as we see over yesterday’s shot over the bow with Canada and Mexico) are there to facilitate more than economics (in this case over fentanyl and immigration), that’s the other point.
Yes, he is calmer! I think all that has happened to him has weathered him in a good way. Biography is destiny!
15% corporate tax rate - why would you ever invest anywhere else? (Completely irrelevant, but it is an OECD benchmark that as far as I know, safeguards you from foreign criticism on transfer pricing, i.e. a 15% rate is final and not subject to foreign risk of recapture). I think only Ireland has for its own promotion, the low 15% corporate tax rate (and this has been tolerated by the EU for specific Irish promotion) and there are some special (but contestable) tax treatments in other places such as Malta. But you would not risk jail for 5% in Malta, if the US is only 15% and final. There is a further consequence that transfer pricing etc. favours collecting moneys where there is discretion as to "who owned what where in the world" (such as for royalties, patents, brands etc.) direct in the USA. Apple, Microsoft, Merck etc. like to collect and channel crossborder payments to "coordination centres" in tax havens (Ireland, Malta, Cayman Islands, Panama...) rather than return the money to the US for taxation in the US and ultimately into US dividends or US share buybacks, revitalising the efficient flow of capital instead of clogging the money indefinitely and unproductively in tax havens.
Lowering income taxes for the entry level, low wage, temporary or part time workers, tip income etc. will work deflationary too, or feather off any increase in cost of living for those people in particular. It further extends the grassroots pull of the republicans.
Flipping in tariffs for reducing internal income tax and corporate tax is a priori neither inflationary nor deflationary. This is more Reagan's "supply side" approach. Was flat-out laughed at last time here in Europe but it accelerated the US economy 1980-2000 way beyond Europe. Clinton surfed it for two more terms. Once the growth comes through, Laffer curve pays down fiscal imbalances. It might be a good idea to read up on some of the Paul Craig Roberts stuff of the Reagan era.
Note: the fracking was not "Department of Energy" (nor even the large US oil multinationals) but US independent wildcatters who came up with it. Cheap energy will be deflationary for sure, and further supported by exiting the Paris agreement. It will make the US economy (including manufacturing and agriculture) very competitive. So I would be bearish oil & gas (price) but bullish the rest of the economy which processes from there. Bullish US$ and US equity, we have already seen that play out but there will be a 2nd and a 3rd round.