The ten rules governing how our new world really works (Rule 8: The Promised Land Fallacy; Von Tirpitz Disastrously Builds a Navy)
johnhulsman.substack.com
Introduction: The Dangerous Mirage of the Promised Land Fallacy Distantly related to the losing gambler’s syndrome is the promised land fallacy, the naive view that one attribute of power or one strategy is sufficient to overcome the complexity of the world and—in a silver bullet-like fashion—change the terms of the geopolitical game. In essence, it’s a very human effort to falsely manufacture a game-changing strategy rather than recognising that a game-changing event generally happens organically. Political risk analysts throughout the ages, frustrated by the constraints of living in the world as they have found it, are often highly susceptible to dreaming up analysis designed to liberate them from the shackles of reality. Ruinously, reality always wins.
The ten rules governing how our new world really works (Rule 8: The Promised Land Fallacy; Von Tirpitz Disastrously Builds a Navy)
The ten rules governing how our new world…
The ten rules governing how our new world really works (Rule 8: The Promised Land Fallacy; Von Tirpitz Disastrously Builds a Navy)
Introduction: The Dangerous Mirage of the Promised Land Fallacy Distantly related to the losing gambler’s syndrome is the promised land fallacy, the naive view that one attribute of power or one strategy is sufficient to overcome the complexity of the world and—in a silver bullet-like fashion—change the terms of the geopolitical game. In essence, it’s a very human effort to falsely manufacture a game-changing strategy rather than recognising that a game-changing event generally happens organically. Political risk analysts throughout the ages, frustrated by the constraints of living in the world as they have found it, are often highly susceptible to dreaming up analysis designed to liberate them from the shackles of reality. Ruinously, reality always wins.