Thanks so much Dianne; yes, trying to slow down ahead of our two upcoming trips (next week and just after the vote) to DC and of course the election itself, which will 'shock' many as you say; but not us!
looking forward to the election night group chat..lots of coffee or tea and hopefully a realism moment in history. Get your grant completed. We are on to better days.
Yes, it should be great fun; and yes, there is a real possibility of a realist vindication after the better part of a generation. Grant is in, so we are just going to talk it through with the donor, but things look good there too. You are so right Dianne; we are onto better days! Speak soon.
I entirely agree, Erik. As I said in today's, sometimes the historical answer is simply no. In my view the only question pertains to the EU's relative or absolute decline; an important point, but a subsidiary of the larger rising power/falling power point.
Germany is broken. It cannot carry itself right now, let stand alone the rest of the EU/Eurozone.
During the good years, it actually never benefitted. German families are dirt poor and have no savings. It went to taxes and to support Greece, France etc.
The mess is hidden in the Target 2 reserves in the Euro system: the Bundesbank is owed massive amounts of debt from other European central banks. I.e. it never got paid for its exports, other than in imaginary fiat money which the rest of Europe still owes Germany.
John, once again realistic and truthful discussion. I am in agreement on all points. Get rest! The next couple of weeks will a be reset for many... Best
The Netherlands (and Flanders) has no interest in teaming up with France. They are the best bit of Germany (mercantilist, own responsibility first) right now. Nor does Luxembourg, their local dialect is a German patois (Letzebuergisch). Wallony has figured out that France is poorer than Flanders & the Netherlands, so they don't want to become French (other than culturally). Why would you merge into an almshouse? (France is truly bust.) Wallony calls itself (Holy Roman) Burgundy, not France.
All Holy Roman Empire really. BeNeLux is more into Germany than France, the ports (Rotterdam, Antwerp) are the port for Germany onto the North Sea and the Atlantic that Germany never had. The rivers, canals, railroads, highways lead to Germany passing through Aachen/Aix-la-Chapelle (Charlemagne's capital - a coincidence?) and Colonia Augusta (Koeln - on the Rhein) and are logistically closer to the German core than German Hansa port Hamburg is. BeNeLux is a supply chain to Germany. The wealthiest Flemish André Leysen, married a German, inherited her family's German shipper Ahlers in Antwerp, became chair of German behemoth Bayer in retirement, led the Patronaat (the business club negotiating wage deals with the trade unions in Belgium). He also did jail as a teenager for collaboration with Hitler (his parents truly), He was in the Hitler Jugend as a child.
The leading indicator for the German economy is the statistics of the Belgian National Bank (a trick most arm chair economists don't know about). German orders show up in Antwerp first. The metric has held up since the 16th century. Peter Paul Rubens, the baroque painter, was born in Giessen (Germany) and moved a child with his dad, a German trader, to Antwerp. He served German-Austrian and Spanish (Habsburg) interests as a diplomat and the tridentine Roman Catholic Church with his art all his life.
[The same reason is why Russia will never give up its claims on the Baltic states. It just won't. It is logistically crucial to the Muscovite economy, so it would be suicide to ignore it. Peter the Great or Stalin or Putin? Does not matter. Obama? Does not matter. Estonia is 35% Russian speaking. It will tumble. Neatest metropole nearby is Leningrad, uh St. Petersburg. Hence East Prussia - Immanuel Kant's Koenigsberg - is now Kaliningrad. All the capital there is Russian. Braudel calls this "la longe durée" - it asserts itself against all vain theory as time is on its side.]
Truly: the European identity is a cultural identity. Politically, people are something else: nationalist (Polish, Greek) or even lower: regionalist (Catalan, Basque, Flemish, Bayrisch, Welsh, Scottish, Lega Nord, Magyar/Hungarian - Zakarpattia in Ukraine -, Polish - Lvov/Lviv in Ukraine - ...) A united Europe cannot be a democratic Europe: it reflects no one's political, economic, historical, linguistic, racial identity. The "subsidiarity" principle (all administration at the lowest suitable level) all but forgotten, political Europe can only decline in popular support, but if that principle is not ignored, it cannot integrate. The solution? There might not be one? Helmut Kohl (Dr. Kohl, with a PhD in history) thought the € might overcome this problem, and it does make a split intractable from here. Maybe we are just stuck.
The USA could not abolish the States either. See: Roe versus Wade. Went back to the States after a 50 year unconstitutional intermezzo. The one success story is Lincoln's Abolition - exceptions (!) shape destiny and topple Braudel's logic.
Thanks so much Dianne; yes, trying to slow down ahead of our two upcoming trips (next week and just after the vote) to DC and of course the election itself, which will 'shock' many as you say; but not us!
looking forward to the election night group chat..lots of coffee or tea and hopefully a realism moment in history. Get your grant completed. We are on to better days.
Best!
Yes, it should be great fun; and yes, there is a real possibility of a realist vindication after the better part of a generation. Grant is in, so we are just going to talk it through with the donor, but things look good there too. You are so right Dianne; we are onto better days! Speak soon.
I entirely agree, Erik. As I said in today's, sometimes the historical answer is simply no. In my view the only question pertains to the EU's relative or absolute decline; an important point, but a subsidiary of the larger rising power/falling power point.
Germany is broken. It cannot carry itself right now, let stand alone the rest of the EU/Eurozone.
During the good years, it actually never benefitted. German families are dirt poor and have no savings. It went to taxes and to support Greece, France etc.
The mess is hidden in the Target 2 reserves in the Euro system: the Bundesbank is owed massive amounts of debt from other European central banks. I.e. it never got paid for its exports, other than in imaginary fiat money which the rest of Europe still owes Germany.
Thank you,
John, once again realistic and truthful discussion. I am in agreement on all points. Get rest! The next couple of weeks will a be reset for many... Best
The Netherlands (and Flanders) has no interest in teaming up with France. They are the best bit of Germany (mercantilist, own responsibility first) right now. Nor does Luxembourg, their local dialect is a German patois (Letzebuergisch). Wallony has figured out that France is poorer than Flanders & the Netherlands, so they don't want to become French (other than culturally). Why would you merge into an almshouse? (France is truly bust.) Wallony calls itself (Holy Roman) Burgundy, not France.
All Holy Roman Empire really. BeNeLux is more into Germany than France, the ports (Rotterdam, Antwerp) are the port for Germany onto the North Sea and the Atlantic that Germany never had. The rivers, canals, railroads, highways lead to Germany passing through Aachen/Aix-la-Chapelle (Charlemagne's capital - a coincidence?) and Colonia Augusta (Koeln - on the Rhein) and are logistically closer to the German core than German Hansa port Hamburg is. BeNeLux is a supply chain to Germany. The wealthiest Flemish André Leysen, married a German, inherited her family's German shipper Ahlers in Antwerp, became chair of German behemoth Bayer in retirement, led the Patronaat (the business club negotiating wage deals with the trade unions in Belgium). He also did jail as a teenager for collaboration with Hitler (his parents truly), He was in the Hitler Jugend as a child.
The leading indicator for the German economy is the statistics of the Belgian National Bank (a trick most arm chair economists don't know about). German orders show up in Antwerp first. The metric has held up since the 16th century. Peter Paul Rubens, the baroque painter, was born in Giessen (Germany) and moved a child with his dad, a German trader, to Antwerp. He served German-Austrian and Spanish (Habsburg) interests as a diplomat and the tridentine Roman Catholic Church with his art all his life.
[The same reason is why Russia will never give up its claims on the Baltic states. It just won't. It is logistically crucial to the Muscovite economy, so it would be suicide to ignore it. Peter the Great or Stalin or Putin? Does not matter. Obama? Does not matter. Estonia is 35% Russian speaking. It will tumble. Neatest metropole nearby is Leningrad, uh St. Petersburg. Hence East Prussia - Immanuel Kant's Koenigsberg - is now Kaliningrad. All the capital there is Russian. Braudel calls this "la longe durée" - it asserts itself against all vain theory as time is on its side.]
Truly: the European identity is a cultural identity. Politically, people are something else: nationalist (Polish, Greek) or even lower: regionalist (Catalan, Basque, Flemish, Bayrisch, Welsh, Scottish, Lega Nord, Magyar/Hungarian - Zakarpattia in Ukraine -, Polish - Lvov/Lviv in Ukraine - ...) A united Europe cannot be a democratic Europe: it reflects no one's political, economic, historical, linguistic, racial identity. The "subsidiarity" principle (all administration at the lowest suitable level) all but forgotten, political Europe can only decline in popular support, but if that principle is not ignored, it cannot integrate. The solution? There might not be one? Helmut Kohl (Dr. Kohl, with a PhD in history) thought the € might overcome this problem, and it does make a split intractable from here. Maybe we are just stuck.
The USA could not abolish the States either. See: Roe versus Wade. Went back to the States after a 50 year unconstitutional intermezzo. The one success story is Lincoln's Abolition - exceptions (!) shape destiny and topple Braudel's logic.