On this summer solstice morning, June 20 2025, a time of light and rebirth invites me to focus on a hopeful out come to the Iran situation. The 2 week time frame for negations and possible deal Trump laid out for Iran is a positive step. I remain optimistic. Thanks again John, for all the long hours and your amazing talent in political risk.
The bunker buster (depending on how the tunnels and working areas are drilled) may have to rely on massive hits with seismic/geological displacement of the layers in the mountain. Surely there are sufficient bends in the access tunnels that a direct hit into the internal ateliers is not achievable. Wonder how much kton/Mton is needed for that? It needs to dislodge the geological striata and shake them up, which will collapse the structure at depth.
Technically (and not my area) I’ve asked about this for years and have been told that yes, that is so; what they need are several (3ish) scoring direct hits and landing on top of one another. This is another reason Israel cannot do the job; only the American pilots have (obviously) been trained to do this. It is why I think the President is rightfully hesitating
Have you found out, Erik? I guess the Iranians did, but it is difficult to ascertain the level of damage. Wow, six B2s. That is throwing the kitchen sink at it. If Fordow has been completely destroyed, that sortie will go down in history as legendary in those circles. But what if it has not? No leakage detected yet.
There will not be leakage. The mountain collapses on top of it. It doesn't explode in a fireball but structurally collapses. A displacement of a few meters triggers earthquake-like conditions.
Seismic activity was measured yesterday night, but Iran is unstable and always seismic.
If effective, it is now a tomb for whatever equipment and nuclear materials stored there. It was a factory, it is now a long term geological storage facility. If these bunker busters have delivered.
With the element of surprise now gone, if it takes multiple B2 sorties dropping MOPs in S300 territory to get the job done, it makes the Falklands Vulcan runway mission look like a quick trip to the shops for a pint of milk.
Saudi was forewarned by the USA that Israel was going to attack Iran. How can I be so sure?
Saudi decided to expand oil production in a soft oil market with prices in the $50ies. They were convinced (by Trump) to preemptively flood the market to depress the oil price and limit the flare-up.
One week later, Israel attacked.
It's a leading indicator maybe for spread of intelligence ahead of actual attacks.
So given events, and Trump's stated position on Forever wars, what impact will this have on the MAGA base, have the odds lengthened on them turning out in 2028 to give their vote to Vance or another candidate?
If it is verified that the bunker busters crack deep-seated silos - Trump and the US army have "turned the page".
Not just nuclear factories & assemblies are at risk of destruction, so are the ready intercontinental ballistic missiles wintering in their silos. What before could only be achieved by targeting by other nukes, can now be busted by classical, if massively powerful seismically impacting bunker busters, ripping through and displacing geological striata, using the power of the Earth itself to achieve destruction of a military target.
A working, effective alternative to "mutuality assured destruction".
Here is the deal: Trump masterfully dissimulated but is Reagan's son: Peace through Strength. Reminder - in Europe we all ridiculed Reagan in 1979-1983, but he succeeded beyond imagination.
Really the question is if Trump decides to ignore Netanyahu's pressure to attack, because the Jewish lobbies are racing across DC with threats/promises to withhold/award media & campaign funding to 2026 and 2028 candidates.
Question for John, or any member of the group that might know the answer, and please forgive my naivety on the subject… It’s an important point that having a bomb doesn’t mean the Iranians have the technology to turn it into a nuclear warhead that can be delivered by an ICBM to a long range target. I think John has repeatedly said that they are likely at least 12-18 months away from developing that capability. Is that based on US intelligence, and how confident are we in that intelligence? Further, is it possible for them to be developing that technology in advance of actually having a bomb, or does the bomb need to come first before they can work on the delivery mechanism?
A quick take from me...I am not a nuclear physicist, nor a physicist.
This look at this as basic's, from my understanding
First Uranium enrichment is needed.
Weapon Grade Uranium (HEU)is highly enriched.. Typically 90%
Warhead Fabrication, Conversion to Metal. the enriched UF6 gas is converted back to uranium dioxide, ten to a metal, which is machined into a shape often a sphere.
Assembly, the uranium core is surrounded by a reflector (beryllium) this protects neutron loss, lowering the critical mass needed for a chain reaction. It's encased in physics package with high explosive for implosion. A neutron initatior. sparks the chain reaction releasing massive energy..
Miniaturation, the warhead is compacted to fit a missiles payload bay, the design need to withstand launch and re-entry
Delivery system, the war head is mounted on a ballistic missile.
Hi JJ. John will no doubt correct me, but since Israel is within 2,000 km, Iran does not need an ICBM. The Shahab 3 and Sejjil 2 already cover that range. The key is the nose cone. I believe IAEA files show Iran has worked on nose cone design in the past. But miniaturising the device into a deliverable warhead in this cone is still the hard part. I do not think the process needs to be sequential either. The cone can be designed prior to or alongside the warhead. I think the twelve to eighteen month estimate comes from US intelligence scenario planning. Whether DT listens to the DNI is another matter.
To be fair, it is always difficult for a high-level adviser to know when to push and when not; that is not just due to President Trump. She has decided to tack, to fight again on other key points ahead. Its not just as simple as you resign the first time you disagree with the President, especially when the stakes are (as you say) so very high. I am not encouraging sycophancy; nor did I, when everything was on the line, hesitate from falling only sword. But it is really more complicated than this
I know not every hill is worth dying on. But if you’re going to change course, show the evidence. Others might be literally dying on theirs as a result.
I think splitting the difference (and I’ve been asking after this for fully 20 years) is about right; 12-18 months. As such, its not an immediate crisis, like in Cuba, which is the only real point. The genuine crisis, I fear, was that the negotiations were getting somewhere
I am not sure I should step in here. But the intelligent agency doesn't always know what they are seeing, Iraq. Tulsi is not a physicist or a nuclear weapons expert, maybe? just a maybe more intel experts were brought in to access. You need an intel agency with a broad breath of knowledge. Just my thoughts.
This is good news, John. I suppose the real work now lies in finding a meaningful and lasting compromise that all protagonists can live with. Foreseeing disaster is not the same as preventing it.
Similarly, in the UK’s case, the Chilcot Inquiry revealed that leaders were warned of the chaos, terrorism, and instability that would follow the Iraq War, and they ignored those warnings. It seems today’s warnings about Iran echo the same themes. If we do not learn from history, it will rule us again at terrible cost.
This is veering a little too much towards Wilsonianism I’d say. Power matters here, as it always does; the world is not run as a debating society. While I entirely agree there is a bottom line all have to hew to (as I m notion I think it is the civilian use of nuclear energy question being fudged, which works in a regional supply sort of way) the Iranians have far more stark choices ahead. They must make actual compromises now and quickly or war will destroy them. Just as the Americans and Israelis can overreach I worry about whether revolutionary Iran is capable of seeing their plight as it is
Points taken, John. I hesitate to say it, but theology may be clouding their grasp of the reality needed to avoid the very destruction they fear, if indeed they fear it at all.
Totally agree Kieran; in political risk terms, theology is a form of ideology as any other in terms of the analysis; often the most important as it is so often implacable and must absolutely be factored in
Haven’t listened yet Kieran but here’s some suggestions for the Friday jam: Cat Steven’s Teaser And The Firecat or George Harrison All Things Must Pass. The world needs it right now! Your choice friend…
On this summer solstice morning, June 20 2025, a time of light and rebirth invites me to focus on a hopeful out come to the Iran situation. The 2 week time frame for negations and possible deal Trump laid out for Iran is a positive step. I remain optimistic. Thanks again John, for all the long hours and your amazing talent in political risk.
Thanks so much Dianne, for both your inspiration and support
John, inspiration flows both ways...
I hope we'll all can find it this weekend.
The bunker buster (depending on how the tunnels and working areas are drilled) may have to rely on massive hits with seismic/geological displacement of the layers in the mountain. Surely there are sufficient bends in the access tunnels that a direct hit into the internal ateliers is not achievable. Wonder how much kton/Mton is needed for that? It needs to dislodge the geological striata and shake them up, which will collapse the structure at depth.
Technically (and not my area) I’ve asked about this for years and have been told that yes, that is so; what they need are several (3ish) scoring direct hits and landing on top of one another. This is another reason Israel cannot do the job; only the American pilots have (obviously) been trained to do this. It is why I think the President is rightfully hesitating
We will find out. There were seismic footprints of these bombardments, akin to earthquakes (there are earthquake trackers).
Have you found out, Erik? I guess the Iranians did, but it is difficult to ascertain the level of damage. Wow, six B2s. That is throwing the kitchen sink at it. If Fordow has been completely destroyed, that sortie will go down in history as legendary in those circles. But what if it has not? No leakage detected yet.
There will not be leakage. The mountain collapses on top of it. It doesn't explode in a fireball but structurally collapses. A displacement of a few meters triggers earthquake-like conditions.
Seismic activity was measured yesterday night, but Iran is unstable and always seismic.
If effective, it is now a tomb for whatever equipment and nuclear materials stored there. It was a factory, it is now a long term geological storage facility. If these bunker busters have delivered.
https://x.com/vhp_akr/status/1936687404879954369?s=46
With the element of surprise now gone, if it takes multiple B2 sorties dropping MOPs in S300 territory to get the job done, it makes the Falklands Vulcan runway mission look like a quick trip to the shops for a pint of milk.
surprise may be gone, but Israel increasingly controls the skies, which is another reason to wait; in 2 weeks Iran will have no anti-air left
Yes. But maybe they won’t see them unless they want to be seen.
Saudi was forewarned by the USA that Israel was going to attack Iran. How can I be so sure?
Saudi decided to expand oil production in a soft oil market with prices in the $50ies. They were convinced (by Trump) to preemptively flood the market to depress the oil price and limit the flare-up.
One week later, Israel attacked.
It's a leading indicator maybe for spread of intelligence ahead of actual attacks.
very much worth keeping an eye on, Erik, thanks
Fantastic John!
So given events, and Trump's stated position on Forever wars, what impact will this have on the MAGA base, have the odds lengthened on them turning out in 2028 to give their vote to Vance or another candidate?
Substack to follow Misbah, precisely on this point and the state of the MAGA base
If it is verified that the bunker busters crack deep-seated silos - Trump and the US army have "turned the page".
Not just nuclear factories & assemblies are at risk of destruction, so are the ready intercontinental ballistic missiles wintering in their silos. What before could only be achieved by targeting by other nukes, can now be busted by classical, if massively powerful seismically impacting bunker busters, ripping through and displacing geological striata, using the power of the Earth itself to achieve destruction of a military target.
A working, effective alternative to "mutuality assured destruction".
Here is the deal: Trump masterfully dissimulated but is Reagan's son: Peace through Strength. Reminder - in Europe we all ridiculed Reagan in 1979-1983, but he succeeded beyond imagination.
It’s way too early to say whether the decision to bomb Iran was prudent or not.
Really the question is if Trump decides to ignore Netanyahu's pressure to attack, because the Jewish lobbies are racing across DC with threats/promises to withhold/award media & campaign funding to 2026 and 2028 candidates.
Trump is not on the list but GOPs are...
All I will say here Erik, is that the realists are far better organised than we were over Iraq; and there’s room for hope, quite a lot of it
Question for John, or any member of the group that might know the answer, and please forgive my naivety on the subject… It’s an important point that having a bomb doesn’t mean the Iranians have the technology to turn it into a nuclear warhead that can be delivered by an ICBM to a long range target. I think John has repeatedly said that they are likely at least 12-18 months away from developing that capability. Is that based on US intelligence, and how confident are we in that intelligence? Further, is it possible for them to be developing that technology in advance of actually having a bomb, or does the bomb need to come first before they can work on the delivery mechanism?
Hey JJ,
A quick take from me...I am not a nuclear physicist, nor a physicist.
This look at this as basic's, from my understanding
First Uranium enrichment is needed.
Weapon Grade Uranium (HEU)is highly enriched.. Typically 90%
Warhead Fabrication, Conversion to Metal. the enriched UF6 gas is converted back to uranium dioxide, ten to a metal, which is machined into a shape often a sphere.
Assembly, the uranium core is surrounded by a reflector (beryllium) this protects neutron loss, lowering the critical mass needed for a chain reaction. It's encased in physics package with high explosive for implosion. A neutron initatior. sparks the chain reaction releasing massive energy..
Miniaturation, the warhead is compacted to fit a missiles payload bay, the design need to withstand launch and re-entry
Delivery system, the war head is mounted on a ballistic missile.
Hi JJ. John will no doubt correct me, but since Israel is within 2,000 km, Iran does not need an ICBM. The Shahab 3 and Sejjil 2 already cover that range. The key is the nose cone. I believe IAEA files show Iran has worked on nose cone design in the past. But miniaturising the device into a deliverable warhead in this cone is still the hard part. I do not think the process needs to be sequential either. The cone can be designed prior to or alongside the warhead. I think the twelve to eighteen month estimate comes from US intelligence scenario planning. Whether DT listens to the DNI is another matter.
Thank you both, very helpful!
So Tulsi has changed her mind. It was all the MSM fault. I guess Trump will listen now. It would be funny if blood wasn’t at stake.
To be fair, it is always difficult for a high-level adviser to know when to push and when not; that is not just due to President Trump. She has decided to tack, to fight again on other key points ahead. Its not just as simple as you resign the first time you disagree with the President, especially when the stakes are (as you say) so very high. I am not encouraging sycophancy; nor did I, when everything was on the line, hesitate from falling only sword. But it is really more complicated than this
I know not every hill is worth dying on. But if you’re going to change course, show the evidence. Others might be literally dying on theirs as a result.
And i’ll keep pressing; a good end of the week for realists; something to build on
I haven’t changed my mind.
Never in doubt, John. There can be no change unless there is new, irrefutable evidence to support it.
I think splitting the difference (and I’ve been asking after this for fully 20 years) is about right; 12-18 months. As such, its not an immediate crisis, like in Cuba, which is the only real point. The genuine crisis, I fear, was that the negotiations were getting somewhere
I am not sure I should step in here. But the intelligent agency doesn't always know what they are seeing, Iraq. Tulsi is not a physicist or a nuclear weapons expert, maybe? just a maybe more intel experts were brought in to access. You need an intel agency with a broad breath of knowledge. Just my thoughts.
This is good news, John. I suppose the real work now lies in finding a meaningful and lasting compromise that all protagonists can live with. Foreseeing disaster is not the same as preventing it.
Similarly, in the UK’s case, the Chilcot Inquiry revealed that leaders were warned of the chaos, terrorism, and instability that would follow the Iraq War, and they ignored those warnings. It seems today’s warnings about Iran echo the same themes. If we do not learn from history, it will rule us again at terrible cost.
This is veering a little too much towards Wilsonianism I’d say. Power matters here, as it always does; the world is not run as a debating society. While I entirely agree there is a bottom line all have to hew to (as I m notion I think it is the civilian use of nuclear energy question being fudged, which works in a regional supply sort of way) the Iranians have far more stark choices ahead. They must make actual compromises now and quickly or war will destroy them. Just as the Americans and Israelis can overreach I worry about whether revolutionary Iran is capable of seeing their plight as it is
Points taken, John. I hesitate to say it, but theology may be clouding their grasp of the reality needed to avoid the very destruction they fear, if indeed they fear it at all.
Totally agree Kieran; in political risk terms, theology is a form of ideology as any other in terms of the analysis; often the most important as it is so often implacable and must absolutely be factored in
Haven’t listened yet Kieran but here’s some suggestions for the Friday jam: Cat Steven’s Teaser And The Firecat or George Harrison All Things Must Pass. The world needs it right now! Your choice friend…
I’d always go with George
Terri, George for sure, to me it says.... Liberation, freedom comes from letting go, things move forward.
Loving these Friday jams Terri! I’ll listen to both. Have a good one!