I think New Hampshire, Virginia and even Minnesota (though favourability for the GOP is probably in that order) are all to some extent in play. A loss in any of them and the Dems are done. As for the House, we have yet to make a call as it is so very close and so very complicated. But yes, our guiding star at present is that by a few seats (and it will be a very narrow margin either way) whoever wins the presidency is apt to win the House. We will call the Senate probably next month and the House the month to follow but presently we entirely agree with your thinking Erik
You took me back, Terri, with the Len Barker reference, which I gratefully accept. Yes, the firm has been gong great guns and this debate call is sort of the cherry on the analytical cake. Have a wonderful 4th!
More recent polls bring Trump somewhat towards marginally competitive in Virginia, even in New Hampshire. The average (or Kalman filters) are sluggish.
It may have consequences for the House too as motivated voters for the Presidency will then drop off a ballot for the House too, in those states.
I think New Hampshire, Virginia and even Minnesota (though favourability for the GOP is probably in that order) are all to some extent in play. A loss in any of them and the Dems are done. As for the House, we have yet to make a call as it is so very close and so very complicated. But yes, our guiding star at present is that by a few seats (and it will be a very narrow margin either way) whoever wins the presidency is apt to win the House. We will call the Senate probably next month and the House the month to follow but presently we entirely agree with your thinking Erik
Thanks my friend, here's to the glorious 4th!
You took me back, Terri, with the Len Barker reference, which I gratefully accept. Yes, the firm has been gong great guns and this debate call is sort of the cherry on the analytical cake. Have a wonderful 4th!
More recent polls bring Trump somewhat towards marginally competitive in Virginia, even in New Hampshire. The average (or Kalman filters) are sluggish.
It may have consequences for the House too as motivated voters for the Presidency will then drop off a ballot for the House too, in those states.
Happy 4th July!
Congratulations to you and John Goodnight, the Len Barkers of Geopolitical Risk analysis!