My favourite ideational; part of it was him not pulling any punches, and saying to the former ruling elite (correctly in my view) that they absolutely screwed things up..to their faces. The greatest American populist moment ever.
Watching all the highlights with interest. It must of been incredibly uncomfortable for the opposition. What a spectacle! The part about building a colour-blind, merit-based society was a great message. But seriously, what on earth is Elon doing?
Yes I love the rediscovering of good old fashioned messaging of Teddy Roosevelt’s views on meritocracy-the perfect antidote to the woke nonsense. As for Elon, he’s just a little over-excited; soon he’ll be at work on DOGE and Mars!
I’m sure you are right, John. Loose cannon comes to mind. Tesla share price might be of interest to many tomorrow trading. Really hope this doesn’t take the shine off an incredibly important day for democratic values.
Yes Kieran, swamped but just had to write. We are always buying and selling kit from the last era; hence in 1941 everyone at Pearl Harbor thought the loss of the battleships was devastating, overlooking the great good fortune that the carriers were then at sea training. Likewise, now, it is the unsexy but vital asymmetries of mines, drones (above all), and missiles that can relatively quickly transform Taiwan into a porcupine. The good news is that Bridge knows this; now they have to convince the Pentagon!
China is 55% of global steel manufacturing. Obviously it went into construction, transport and equipment manufacturing the past decades, much more than into dumping abroad. Arms are steel and metal slammed into equipment. The USA has 5% of steel capacity (Senator Fetterman can explain to you what happened). This past summer I went to the (ex) Boston shipyard (Charlestown) visit a ship, the USS Cassin Young, built by Betlehem Steel (now defunct) for WW2 Pacific operation. No shortage of ammonia and nitrate for explosives (unlike Europe, which managed to move itself there). China (CSMC) can manufacture basic chips in unlimited quantities and in that sector, today leads the world. The Achilles heel is really the equipment that makes the equipment for making chips (ASML in Eindhoven, NL).
Unfortunately, the US military industry exists for the industry, and not for the military, at least that is its current status. It's a money wheel.
The proximity for supplying any activity is also decisively in favour of China. They don't need aircraft carriers and would hold those away from the Straits until the end, they have hundreds of air bases and thousands of air strips in well under a half hour's flight from Taiwan. They can also store crucial arms, equipment inventory and manufacturing away from the shoreline, deep inland. It would come down to achieving air superiority with fighter planes, drones and air-to-air and ground-to-air offence and a submarine naval blockade first, before any invasion.
Taiwan does have a real army (unlike Europe, even the UK). So does South Korea (at least for now, the demographic collapse - even worse than China - evaporates that strength in 20 years or less). Japan (Okinawa), Guam, Midway and Hawaii are limited supply, good in a cold war, but unknown effectiveness in a hot war. You should seek some footing in Australia and New Zealand, just to secure the Pacific for merchant shipping and navy.
Iraq worked out twice, but against an infinitely inferior enemy and with Saudi support at ten minutes flight away.
For China, the gamble is one about uncertainty and cost versus benefits, compared to other approaches. Such other approaches exist, as they do for Russia in the Baltics. It is a permanent strategic interest for both of them, and they will probe, if not with hot war, then with the next best thing they can lay their hands on. Economic, but also demographic and migratory dwarfing - but China started on the wrong footing demographically, and Russia has at best a relative, rather than an absolute advantage in demographics.
The economic picture looks better for China than most assume, as China is now by any stretch the major partner for trade and investment from and to Taiwan (> 50% and growing). The nearshoring and onshoring will only extend that lead. More of the chips (and any other product) go from Taiwan to China than to anywhere else, and that trend is strengthening.
Taiwan was a Japanese colony about a century ago. It is now Chinese, under an unstable constitutional, diplomatic and economic status. It uses a Chinese dialect and Chinese writing which is even more ancient than the Bei Jing writing (reformed and "simplified" by Mao). The national pride of the "Republic of China" is the Bei Jing Palace Museum in "capital" Tai Bei (stocked by what Chang Kai Shek was able to hurry over). There is a plurality, but not a firm majority in favour of the US ahead of China.
The Baltics are self-extinguishing (birth rates and emigration), only slightly less acutely than South Korea or Ukraine. Trade & investment is laundered Russian origin money (a bit like Singapore/China). Estonia is heading to a Russian speaking majority by birth rates and both immigration & emigration, reason why the local politicians are so hysteric. The Swedish bankers in Vilnius, Riga, Tallinn better speak Russian.
None of these matters are single-front or single-criterion conflicts.
Ultimately, it comes down to the national cohesion and broad social support they can garner for their strategic national projects, which Taiwan and the Baltics definitely are for China and for Russia. What makes a nation? They (Bei Jing and Moscow) want it far more than us (which is rational) so they will be in this game 2025-2099... and beyond. But do China and Russia want it far more than us? The resources and determination and commitment of the countries, the nations are needed for this, the elites on their own plotting scenarios out won't do. Either China takes Taiwan, or the Chinese communist party gets replaced by something else that achieves more (and this is maybe the most likely and the best outcome for us). Can you deflect them to want something else more? Carrot and stick?
What I take from your post Erik, is that the issue of China taking over Taiwan, given its steel production and the chips going to China, is more pressing than most average citizens realize. It infuriates me when people say that Trump is a fascist, especially when a tenured college professor says it. What I have learned from John is that foreign policy is the one arena where the executive branch has the most control. So when Trump says things like buying Greenland or taking over the Panama Canal, it’s because he is trying to protect America and the American way of life. But the main stream media run with the narrative that Trump is a fascist and a threat to our democracy. People need to look at the bigger picture, and they don’t.
I always try and look at both sides of the issues.This morning I watched PBS Democracy Now, all of the People Marches were spouting off about resisting… And I kept thinking…..Resist What?? Who is stopping you?
A lot of women who don’t like Trump is because of the abortion issue. I will say, as a female and a nurse, the Supreme Court should have left it alone. A lot of the “resisters “ would have nothing to say.
This is why I still want the Republican Party needs to add a “Libertarian” vibe to it.
A lot of topics in this reply, but it all connects, at least in my mind!
And 2 cups of coffee later, I am not going to lie, I remember Bethlehem Steel from Mad Men….
John, great point about choosing the right sweets from the military candy shop. If carriers are going the way of the battleship—will piloted fighter jets follow? A big factor is human training— it’s not just about buying the kit but relying on the US to train you to use it properly, giving the US massive influence over global military strategies and capabilities.
Could the rise of drones shift this? Who’s coding them? As expertise moves from piloting to programming, the US could see its 3rd party military control erode. This also brings huge cyber risks—control of software is becoming just as critical as control of hardware. Wonder what Skunk Works has up its sleeve to stay ahead?
Hi Dianne. Maybe the U.S. already has next-gen military technology through black programs and budgets. It could explain all the UAP activity off the East Coast.
Thanks, John. Insightful analysis and strategy on what US needs to do to defend Taiwan and identifying Bridge Colby as being a key contributor to implementing this strategy.
Hey Dianne, yes I love that Churchill quote in particular (almost all of them make one’s life better) because it captures 2 keep facets of America; its ability to be analytically wrong but also its ability to pragmatically correct mistakes. Which is what we are doing precisely at the moment! Yes, Bridge is such great news; a foreign policy realist thinker who is also a policy doer. Our Indo-Pacific policy, the most important single political risk issue in the world, is in very good hands!
An interesting parallel to this situation was the revolt in Brussels against Dutch rule in 1830 leading to the formation of Belgium. France felt she could dominate Belgium but Britain was entirely unhappy with coastal harbours, particularly Antwerp under French sway. It all, finally, leads to the Treaty of London 1839 where the great powers agreed to Belgium's independence, with Britain acting as a security guarantor.
My favourite ideational; part of it was him not pulling any punches, and saying to the former ruling elite (correctly in my view) that they absolutely screwed things up..to their faces. The greatest American populist moment ever.
Watching all the highlights with interest. It must of been incredibly uncomfortable for the opposition. What a spectacle! The part about building a colour-blind, merit-based society was a great message. But seriously, what on earth is Elon doing?
Yes I love the rediscovering of good old fashioned messaging of Teddy Roosevelt’s views on meritocracy-the perfect antidote to the woke nonsense. As for Elon, he’s just a little over-excited; soon he’ll be at work on DOGE and Mars!
I’m sure you are right, John. Loose cannon comes to mind. Tesla share price might be of interest to many tomorrow trading. Really hope this doesn’t take the shine off an incredibly important day for democratic values.
Elon is about his passions...Not politics, move on
Yes Kieran, swamped but just had to write. We are always buying and selling kit from the last era; hence in 1941 everyone at Pearl Harbor thought the loss of the battleships was devastating, overlooking the great good fortune that the carriers were then at sea training. Likewise, now, it is the unsexy but vital asymmetries of mines, drones (above all), and missiles that can relatively quickly transform Taiwan into a porcupine. The good news is that Bridge knows this; now they have to convince the Pentagon!
Cheers John. Enjoy the party!
Can’t wait for the pizza, beer….and celebration
I'm loving it
If only this ends so peacefully, Misbah!
Thanks Matt, I was thinking of you and our many talks as I did my thing; glad it was up to snuff. Enjoy this wonderful day and speak soon!
Blimey, he certainly didn’t pull out of any tackles did he!
Great speech, truly great speech.
China is 55% of global steel manufacturing. Obviously it went into construction, transport and equipment manufacturing the past decades, much more than into dumping abroad. Arms are steel and metal slammed into equipment. The USA has 5% of steel capacity (Senator Fetterman can explain to you what happened). This past summer I went to the (ex) Boston shipyard (Charlestown) visit a ship, the USS Cassin Young, built by Betlehem Steel (now defunct) for WW2 Pacific operation. No shortage of ammonia and nitrate for explosives (unlike Europe, which managed to move itself there). China (CSMC) can manufacture basic chips in unlimited quantities and in that sector, today leads the world. The Achilles heel is really the equipment that makes the equipment for making chips (ASML in Eindhoven, NL).
Unfortunately, the US military industry exists for the industry, and not for the military, at least that is its current status. It's a money wheel.
The proximity for supplying any activity is also decisively in favour of China. They don't need aircraft carriers and would hold those away from the Straits until the end, they have hundreds of air bases and thousands of air strips in well under a half hour's flight from Taiwan. They can also store crucial arms, equipment inventory and manufacturing away from the shoreline, deep inland. It would come down to achieving air superiority with fighter planes, drones and air-to-air and ground-to-air offence and a submarine naval blockade first, before any invasion.
Taiwan does have a real army (unlike Europe, even the UK). So does South Korea (at least for now, the demographic collapse - even worse than China - evaporates that strength in 20 years or less). Japan (Okinawa), Guam, Midway and Hawaii are limited supply, good in a cold war, but unknown effectiveness in a hot war. You should seek some footing in Australia and New Zealand, just to secure the Pacific for merchant shipping and navy.
Iraq worked out twice, but against an infinitely inferior enemy and with Saudi support at ten minutes flight away.
For China, the gamble is one about uncertainty and cost versus benefits, compared to other approaches. Such other approaches exist, as they do for Russia in the Baltics. It is a permanent strategic interest for both of them, and they will probe, if not with hot war, then with the next best thing they can lay their hands on. Economic, but also demographic and migratory dwarfing - but China started on the wrong footing demographically, and Russia has at best a relative, rather than an absolute advantage in demographics.
The economic picture looks better for China than most assume, as China is now by any stretch the major partner for trade and investment from and to Taiwan (> 50% and growing). The nearshoring and onshoring will only extend that lead. More of the chips (and any other product) go from Taiwan to China than to anywhere else, and that trend is strengthening.
Taiwan was a Japanese colony about a century ago. It is now Chinese, under an unstable constitutional, diplomatic and economic status. It uses a Chinese dialect and Chinese writing which is even more ancient than the Bei Jing writing (reformed and "simplified" by Mao). The national pride of the "Republic of China" is the Bei Jing Palace Museum in "capital" Tai Bei (stocked by what Chang Kai Shek was able to hurry over). There is a plurality, but not a firm majority in favour of the US ahead of China.
The Baltics are self-extinguishing (birth rates and emigration), only slightly less acutely than South Korea or Ukraine. Trade & investment is laundered Russian origin money (a bit like Singapore/China). Estonia is heading to a Russian speaking majority by birth rates and both immigration & emigration, reason why the local politicians are so hysteric. The Swedish bankers in Vilnius, Riga, Tallinn better speak Russian.
None of these matters are single-front or single-criterion conflicts.
Ultimately, it comes down to the national cohesion and broad social support they can garner for their strategic national projects, which Taiwan and the Baltics definitely are for China and for Russia. What makes a nation? They (Bei Jing and Moscow) want it far more than us (which is rational) so they will be in this game 2025-2099... and beyond. But do China and Russia want it far more than us? The resources and determination and commitment of the countries, the nations are needed for this, the elites on their own plotting scenarios out won't do. Either China takes Taiwan, or the Chinese communist party gets replaced by something else that achieves more (and this is maybe the most likely and the best outcome for us). Can you deflect them to want something else more? Carrot and stick?
What I take from your post Erik, is that the issue of China taking over Taiwan, given its steel production and the chips going to China, is more pressing than most average citizens realize. It infuriates me when people say that Trump is a fascist, especially when a tenured college professor says it. What I have learned from John is that foreign policy is the one arena where the executive branch has the most control. So when Trump says things like buying Greenland or taking over the Panama Canal, it’s because he is trying to protect America and the American way of life. But the main stream media run with the narrative that Trump is a fascist and a threat to our democracy. People need to look at the bigger picture, and they don’t.
I always try and look at both sides of the issues.This morning I watched PBS Democracy Now, all of the People Marches were spouting off about resisting… And I kept thinking…..Resist What?? Who is stopping you?
A lot of women who don’t like Trump is because of the abortion issue. I will say, as a female and a nurse, the Supreme Court should have left it alone. A lot of the “resisters “ would have nothing to say.
This is why I still want the Republican Party needs to add a “Libertarian” vibe to it.
A lot of topics in this reply, but it all connects, at least in my mind!
And 2 cups of coffee later, I am not going to lie, I remember Bethlehem Steel from Mad Men….
John, great point about choosing the right sweets from the military candy shop. If carriers are going the way of the battleship—will piloted fighter jets follow? A big factor is human training— it’s not just about buying the kit but relying on the US to train you to use it properly, giving the US massive influence over global military strategies and capabilities.
Could the rise of drones shift this? Who’s coding them? As expertise moves from piloting to programming, the US could see its 3rd party military control erode. This also brings huge cyber risks—control of software is becoming just as critical as control of hardware. Wonder what Skunk Works has up its sleeve to stay ahead?
Umm, Kieran... Skunk Works, wooo who are you?
Hi Dianne. Maybe the U.S. already has next-gen military technology through black programs and budgets. It could explain all the UAP activity off the East Coast.
maybe???...
I need to say I enjoy reading comment before I listen to the discussion or podcast. So note to myself... don't comment prior to the entire listening.
Thanks, John. Insightful analysis and strategy on what US needs to do to defend Taiwan and identifying Bridge Colby as being a key contributor to implementing this strategy.
John, somehow I think this quote from Winston Churchill is appropriate.
"Play Americans can always be trusted to do the right thing once all other possibilities have been exhausted"
And another congratulations to your friend Elbridge Colby, Excellent Asset !
Hey Dianne, yes I love that Churchill quote in particular (almost all of them make one’s life better) because it captures 2 keep facets of America; its ability to be analytically wrong but also its ability to pragmatically correct mistakes. Which is what we are doing precisely at the moment! Yes, Bridge is such great news; a foreign policy realist thinker who is also a policy doer. Our Indo-Pacific policy, the most important single political risk issue in the world, is in very good hands!
Agree, And Bridge is absolutely the perfect person for this position and time in history.
An interesting parallel to this situation was the revolt in Brussels against Dutch rule in 1830 leading to the formation of Belgium. France felt she could dominate Belgium but Britain was entirely unhappy with coastal harbours, particularly Antwerp under French sway. It all, finally, leads to the Treaty of London 1839 where the great powers agreed to Belgium's independence, with Britain acting as a security guarantor.
Ah, this particular topic so warms my heart…excellent post.