John, What an extraordinary Visualization this trip to Thailand has given you, and you now have given to the community. Yes, capitalism works.
A stronger relationship between US-Thailand would help the the US in the Asia-Pacific, in the three areas you covered, Military cooperation, Economic ties, and regional influence. Additionally, and most importantly the US needs to understand the culture, ethos of the region and align in a non transactional way to make this pivot successful. John, enjoy the remainder of this Dream Like Vacation/Journey, It is a voyage actually. And, don't loose money in Laos Vegas.
Sounds like an ethereal trip to Thailand, John! My wife spent a year there after the floods, and I’ve got fond memories of Bangkok from my youth. One day I’d love to take the kids. I remember the royal family being spoken of in almost supernatural terms.
I’ve heard poker in Laos Vegas is fairer than most places. Maybe the house isn’t too worried about profit, more of a service industry. Enjoy the rest of the trip!
Excellent Dianne! I have a funny story from my time in Bangkok. It involved a football (soccer) team, lots of tuk tuks in a street race, and table tennis.
To get elected in the US you need to be very focused on the US public opinion. In fact, you do not need to be an expert on anything and that may even disadvantage you. But you need to be an expert in the US public opinion, how to play it, how to play the media etc.
You need to know more about Palestinian activism on the US campuses than about the Palestine in Palestine, the Middle East.
But all of that makes you less than prepared in understanding what is going on abroad. The shades discolour and disfigure reality.
I still wonder. I still think Asia predominance is China's to lose. That doesn't mean they would not manage to do so. The question is: how quickly does the Chinese ruling party learn effective diplomacy?
The Chinese business world does not need to learn this anymore. I was discussing a successful start-up in Singapore yesterday: funded by Tencent (CN) and Temasek (SI but Chinese ethnicity). Singapore is really China away from China (however much they claim it isn't the case). The trading houses in Singapore are Chinese, not Malay.
Same thing Russia/Ukraine: Russia wins this. I just discussed with a lady with a Russian dad and an Ukrainian mother (not unusual at all - this has been going on for centuries). She calls herself Ukrainian but for no particular reason. But the blood creeps where it cannot go.
Russia will take all of the Northern Black Sea seafront. Just a matter of time.
The true problem of either is, demographics. And to be explicit: birth rates (& abortions & LGBTQ - although the final one is virtually unknown over there, it is impacting Europe and North America), not aging per se.
You are acknowledging China’s difficulties Erik, but still underplaying them. The graveyard is full of 20th century autocrats of all sorts who thought they had the ship hand of America only to be wrong (Kaiser, Hitler, Stalin, and yes Mao). I think we perpetually underestimate others problems. Yes, for China the problem is that by bullying the whole of the Indo-Pacific, they have driven much of the region into America’s arms for the present. The culture and the economics are on their side but at the minute we have the numbers in terms of strategic allies. It is all still to play for.
I think the best strategy for China is one of tacit toleration of some limited US soft power in Asia. That keeps the game open while they can build their economy (which is still growing, irrespective), economic ties across the region, diplomatic skill and more military capability.
So, the long game. In other words, we won't know for another 3-4 decades. It's chess, but not a blitz game.
Imagine you are a Chinese strategist right now: do you say, well, John is right, or do you look for a way through the labyrinth?
In terms of settling the horses after stupidly frightening (in no particular order Australia, Japan, India, South Korea Southeast Asia et al) them I’d entirely agree, Erik. Time and steady policy (not words but realist actions) are the way to win over (or at least neutralise) the region’s fears. Then with cultural and economic advantages the game could be yours. So no, I wouldn’t give up (and say John is right, though I think I am) and settle for great power but not ordering power status in the Indo-Pacific, I’d play your long game. The problem with it is that Beijing could well be a peaking power; Demography (getting old before they get rich, and to give you credit you do rightly acknowledge this is their biggest problem by far) is against them; the real estate bubble/local government debt black hole is real; corruption in the armed forces keeps roiling Xi; Xi (unlike a far better strategist Deng) keeps funnelling money to inefficient SOE’s rather than the Chinese private sector et al. America also has a basketful of problems we rightly talk about. But this is the risk a Chinese strategist takes in pursuing your (and mine too) strategy to play the long game. Being here is always fascinating. I just saw upwards of 20 Buddhist temples today, with about a third having a direct Chinese cultural tie. They have great cards here; but the game will be a close run thing
Thank you as always for this refreshing piece John, it is rare to hear such good coverage (if any at all) from this important part of the world. Your wonderful visuals brought me back to a family trip to Bangkok in around 2013, and even then I was struck by how modern and vibrant the city felt.
I wonder what you make of the country’s low fertility rate, however. With less than 1.5 births per women on average in 2024, it seems to be an unfortunate red mark on an otherwise, as you say, remarkable growth story. It seems to be very early in the development cycle for birth rates to decline so markedly, and far below, say, Vietnam at 1.98.
Will this be a significant drag on growth, do you think the effects too far off to worry about for now?
So envious of all your travels John! I will be checking the map!!
So my amateur view of capitalism is yes, it works and lifts people out of poverty.
But I always wonder about having to have a certain profit margin every quarter in publicly traded companies because I feel as those that pushes people to do unscrupulous desperate acts
Bang on Terri. Quarterly reporting drives short term thinking at the expense of the greater good. How do we balance absolute capitalism with building a society we actually want to live in?
I’d say (and I adore you both) not bang on. While you are surely right about capitalism’s (in its western guise) shirt-termism problems, you are vastly underestimating its successes compared with every other economic system that has ever existed. The next will be on the miracle of Milei, which exposes all the moronic excesses of socialism, social democracy and all the rest. Capitalism has freed more people to do more things than any economic system in the history of the world, and has been more fair and socially just (ie meritocratic) than any other economic system as well. Is it perfect? of course not, human made it. Does it have in-built files? Again, of course. But you are over-estimating the downsides in aggregate in the face of the historical miracle we take far too much for granted. Ask Miliei and his people
I love the rocket and I absolutely support capitalism. I just think it creates somewhat of a “pressure cooker” atmosphere sometimes. I see it in my field as well. Quotas. The downside of it is I absolutely cannot rush people through in what I do, there are a few of us in our department (a very specialized nursing) therefore, we end up being the last people out of the office. I wouldn’t have it any other way!
Having said that, I am constantly working on ideas for the industry and working with our innovations department. And if they back any of my ideas…. Show me the money!!!
Thank you and likewise to all Americans! Myself, I am so proud to be an American today and everyday. I don’t take it for granted. Our flag is proudly waving on this beautiful summer day..
John, I agree. Just commenting on the down sides and wondering (from my amateur perch) how could it be better. But let me get a little philosophical here. Just off the top of my head Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and didn’t Facebook get in trouble with the algorithms? So when “average” people like myself, who try to stay informed read about what the global elite are doing, it fosters a feeling of “they don’t follow the rules, why should I?” Now mind you, I do follow the rules but I can see a decay in work ethic, live for today, selfish, lazy energy in American culture.
And I do believe there is a connection. I don’t want it to be that way. I support capitalism, and I love America and American ingenuity.
I hope I am making sense! I haven’t even had coffee yet!
Again, blame the surname, but for me, as with most things in life, it is rarely about absolutes. Capitalism works. Its strength lies in testing ideas in the unforgiving marketplace, exposing failure quickly rather than propping it up, as socialism often does. That said, I have no issue living within a hybrid. After all, I would rather not see the fire brigade chasing profit, though I understand the need to avoid waste.
Quarterly reporting, to me, reflects a misfiring capitalism. It's an example of seeking fast answers to often complex, long term problems and encourages gaming the system, which I doubt is good for society or realistic in the long run.
The good news I guess is that capitalism’s fundamentals still allow for self correction. I just hope the people left with the bar tab were not those who were never invited to the party.
But Big picture choices are binary, Kieran; be the model capitalism, Socialism, or a hybrid (which is destroying Europe bedofre our eyes). Choices have to be made, and a hybrid is just the west managing decline. Capitalism (as Milei has yet again proved) is the only rocket that takes you anywhere, for all its real flaws.
I get your point about decline management. It is a depressingly real issue. But for me, the idea that there is one binary choice for every country is an oversimplification. Some rockets explode, and even the US subsidises farmers. No system operates in ideological purity in the real world.
Is there an argument that capitalism always trends toward a hybrid model in the end? Are these shifts just cyclical? Perpetual growth is hopium.
John, What an extraordinary Visualization this trip to Thailand has given you, and you now have given to the community. Yes, capitalism works.
A stronger relationship between US-Thailand would help the the US in the Asia-Pacific, in the three areas you covered, Military cooperation, Economic ties, and regional influence. Additionally, and most importantly the US needs to understand the culture, ethos of the region and align in a non transactional way to make this pivot successful. John, enjoy the remainder of this Dream Like Vacation/Journey, It is a voyage actually. And, don't loose money in Laos Vegas.
Sounds like an ethereal trip to Thailand, John! My wife spent a year there after the floods, and I’ve got fond memories of Bangkok from my youth. One day I’d love to take the kids. I remember the royal family being spoken of in almost supernatural terms.
I’ve heard poker in Laos Vegas is fairer than most places. Maybe the house isn’t too worried about profit, more of a service industry. Enjoy the rest of the trip!
Thanks Kieran, I’ve never met anyone from China not concerned with profits! Thanks the family is enjoying it (me too)
Hey Kieran, https://open.spotify.com/album/1WvTsFFx5WjKqdusXov73H
One Night In Bangkok From Chess
Excellent Dianne! I have a funny story from my time in Bangkok. It involved a football (soccer) team, lots of tuk tuks in a street race, and table tennis.
Kieran, you need to spill, Interesting set of players involved. I am most certain it's an outstanding, and entertaining story from your past:)
Definitely not for this forum!!!
My song for this weekend ... Brian Ferry, Its all over Baby Blue. comments are appreciated
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oxeurlq7m2k&list=RDVqg4V4BmJj0&index=8
To get elected in the US you need to be very focused on the US public opinion. In fact, you do not need to be an expert on anything and that may even disadvantage you. But you need to be an expert in the US public opinion, how to play it, how to play the media etc.
You need to know more about Palestinian activism on the US campuses than about the Palestine in Palestine, the Middle East.
But all of that makes you less than prepared in understanding what is going on abroad. The shades discolour and disfigure reality.
My goodness, that is so true Erik!!
I still wonder. I still think Asia predominance is China's to lose. That doesn't mean they would not manage to do so. The question is: how quickly does the Chinese ruling party learn effective diplomacy?
The Chinese business world does not need to learn this anymore. I was discussing a successful start-up in Singapore yesterday: funded by Tencent (CN) and Temasek (SI but Chinese ethnicity). Singapore is really China away from China (however much they claim it isn't the case). The trading houses in Singapore are Chinese, not Malay.
Same thing Russia/Ukraine: Russia wins this. I just discussed with a lady with a Russian dad and an Ukrainian mother (not unusual at all - this has been going on for centuries). She calls herself Ukrainian but for no particular reason. But the blood creeps where it cannot go.
Russia will take all of the Northern Black Sea seafront. Just a matter of time.
The true problem of either is, demographics. And to be explicit: birth rates (& abortions & LGBTQ - although the final one is virtually unknown over there, it is impacting Europe and North America), not aging per se.
You are acknowledging China’s difficulties Erik, but still underplaying them. The graveyard is full of 20th century autocrats of all sorts who thought they had the ship hand of America only to be wrong (Kaiser, Hitler, Stalin, and yes Mao). I think we perpetually underestimate others problems. Yes, for China the problem is that by bullying the whole of the Indo-Pacific, they have driven much of the region into America’s arms for the present. The culture and the economics are on their side but at the minute we have the numbers in terms of strategic allies. It is all still to play for.
I think the best strategy for China is one of tacit toleration of some limited US soft power in Asia. That keeps the game open while they can build their economy (which is still growing, irrespective), economic ties across the region, diplomatic skill and more military capability.
So, the long game. In other words, we won't know for another 3-4 decades. It's chess, but not a blitz game.
Imagine you are a Chinese strategist right now: do you say, well, John is right, or do you look for a way through the labyrinth?
In terms of settling the horses after stupidly frightening (in no particular order Australia, Japan, India, South Korea Southeast Asia et al) them I’d entirely agree, Erik. Time and steady policy (not words but realist actions) are the way to win over (or at least neutralise) the region’s fears. Then with cultural and economic advantages the game could be yours. So no, I wouldn’t give up (and say John is right, though I think I am) and settle for great power but not ordering power status in the Indo-Pacific, I’d play your long game. The problem with it is that Beijing could well be a peaking power; Demography (getting old before they get rich, and to give you credit you do rightly acknowledge this is their biggest problem by far) is against them; the real estate bubble/local government debt black hole is real; corruption in the armed forces keeps roiling Xi; Xi (unlike a far better strategist Deng) keeps funnelling money to inefficient SOE’s rather than the Chinese private sector et al. America also has a basketful of problems we rightly talk about. But this is the risk a Chinese strategist takes in pursuing your (and mine too) strategy to play the long game. Being here is always fascinating. I just saw upwards of 20 Buddhist temples today, with about a third having a direct Chinese cultural tie. They have great cards here; but the game will be a close run thing
As practical example, imports & exports China/Taiwan today dwarf imports & exports USA/Taiwan.
Thank you as always for this refreshing piece John, it is rare to hear such good coverage (if any at all) from this important part of the world. Your wonderful visuals brought me back to a family trip to Bangkok in around 2013, and even then I was struck by how modern and vibrant the city felt.
I wonder what you make of the country’s low fertility rate, however. With less than 1.5 births per women on average in 2024, it seems to be an unfortunate red mark on an otherwise, as you say, remarkable growth story. It seems to be very early in the development cycle for birth rates to decline so markedly, and far below, say, Vietnam at 1.98.
Will this be a significant drag on growth, do you think the effects too far off to worry about for now?
So envious of all your travels John! I will be checking the map!!
So my amateur view of capitalism is yes, it works and lifts people out of poverty.
But I always wonder about having to have a certain profit margin every quarter in publicly traded companies because I feel as those that pushes people to do unscrupulous desperate acts
Terri.. George Harrison song, That's the way it goes.
watch this when time permits
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6maMr1TOQic&list=RD6maMr1TOQic&start_radio=1
Bang on Terri. Quarterly reporting drives short term thinking at the expense of the greater good. How do we balance absolute capitalism with building a society we actually want to live in?
I’d say (and I adore you both) not bang on. While you are surely right about capitalism’s (in its western guise) shirt-termism problems, you are vastly underestimating its successes compared with every other economic system that has ever existed. The next will be on the miracle of Milei, which exposes all the moronic excesses of socialism, social democracy and all the rest. Capitalism has freed more people to do more things than any economic system in the history of the world, and has been more fair and socially just (ie meritocratic) than any other economic system as well. Is it perfect? of course not, human made it. Does it have in-built files? Again, of course. But you are over-estimating the downsides in aggregate in the face of the historical miracle we take far too much for granted. Ask Miliei and his people
I love the rocket and I absolutely support capitalism. I just think it creates somewhat of a “pressure cooker” atmosphere sometimes. I see it in my field as well. Quotas. The downside of it is I absolutely cannot rush people through in what I do, there are a few of us in our department (a very specialized nursing) therefore, we end up being the last people out of the office. I wouldn’t have it any other way!
Having said that, I am constantly working on ideas for the industry and working with our innovations department. And if they back any of my ideas…. Show me the money!!!
Thank you and likewise to all Americans! Myself, I am so proud to be an American today and everyday. I don’t take it for granted. Our flag is proudly waving on this beautiful summer day..
Also, happy 4th of July to all my American friends! Wishing you a joyful day of celebration, freedom, and fireworks.
John, I agree. Just commenting on the down sides and wondering (from my amateur perch) how could it be better. But let me get a little philosophical here. Just off the top of my head Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and didn’t Facebook get in trouble with the algorithms? So when “average” people like myself, who try to stay informed read about what the global elite are doing, it fosters a feeling of “they don’t follow the rules, why should I?” Now mind you, I do follow the rules but I can see a decay in work ethic, live for today, selfish, lazy energy in American culture.
And I do believe there is a connection. I don’t want it to be that way. I support capitalism, and I love America and American ingenuity.
I hope I am making sense! I haven’t even had coffee yet!
Sawasdee krub, John!
Again, blame the surname, but for me, as with most things in life, it is rarely about absolutes. Capitalism works. Its strength lies in testing ideas in the unforgiving marketplace, exposing failure quickly rather than propping it up, as socialism often does. That said, I have no issue living within a hybrid. After all, I would rather not see the fire brigade chasing profit, though I understand the need to avoid waste.
Quarterly reporting, to me, reflects a misfiring capitalism. It's an example of seeking fast answers to often complex, long term problems and encourages gaming the system, which I doubt is good for society or realistic in the long run.
The good news I guess is that capitalism’s fundamentals still allow for self correction. I just hope the people left with the bar tab were not those who were never invited to the party.
But Big picture choices are binary, Kieran; be the model capitalism, Socialism, or a hybrid (which is destroying Europe bedofre our eyes). Choices have to be made, and a hybrid is just the west managing decline. Capitalism (as Milei has yet again proved) is the only rocket that takes you anywhere, for all its real flaws.
I get your point about decline management. It is a depressingly real issue. But for me, the idea that there is one binary choice for every country is an oversimplification. Some rockets explode, and even the US subsidises farmers. No system operates in ideological purity in the real world.
Is there an argument that capitalism always trends toward a hybrid model in the end? Are these shifts just cyclical? Perpetual growth is hopium.