Netanyahu is committed to a perma-war as it secures his political survival.
In the same way Iran is committed to the perma-revolution, which secures the mullahs in place. It justifies their hold on Iranian society and economy without challenge.
Good points Erik. But, surely it is more likely that if this continues there will be no Mullahs left in place at all. That is exactly why Israel is escalating. This is brinkmanship designed to break the perma revolution, not sustain it.
Thou shall not talk Odyssey on Fridays! Thank you for this, John.
The justification for the action, based on claims that Iran is breaching its nuclear obligations, has been building for weeks, but I just don’t buy that the US did not at least tacitly sanction the action. If Israel acted without coordination, that would also seriously undermine US credibility, especially the genuine diplomatic efforts to restart talks in Oman.
My understanding is that Israel already possesses BB munitions, but their use requires US sign off. I think the capability is there, but the political green light clearly was not given. Nasrallah was expertly taken out 60 feet underground! So has the risk of nuclear fuel fallout caused the hesitation?
Yes, your point on readiness seems spot on. Yes Iran’s enrichment is concerning, but a deliverable nuclear warhead, one that is miniaturised and mounted, still seems a long way off. That distinction surely matters.
I completely agree on game theory and Morgenthau 100%. Thank goodness you brought it up. We would fight for the US with courage and guile, even if the reason to do so is one we accept begrudgingly. Look forward to hearing on the developments.
and yes 3) The Israeli Intelligence time frame must be attacked, as US intellectual directly contradicts it. Even if Israel and not the US is right here missile capacity and miniturizing is not a long way off, but 12-18 moths is more than long enough for US to strike if needs be. There is simply no way this is an imminent threat, I totally agree Rather it is driven by the strategic and political imperatives and dangers for Israel that Iran is weak, and the US is increasingly disinterested (rightly) in the region as a primary interest; this is a double edged sword for Israel to dragoon the US back n the region before it completes a genuine pivot to Asia.
No worries John. I can imagine it’s bedlam! Thanks for replying.
1. That is deeply concerning, at least to me.
2. They’ve shown they can use these munitions effectively already, and why have them if not trained to use them.
That said, point taken. No one mad enough has ever used these on a nuclear target. The US is clearly best placed to carry out a strike of that magnitude upon such a sensitive target if it ever had to happen. But surely the fallout risk alone suggests they would not do it unless the threat were truly existential, which, as you say, this is not, at least for now.
So I do not see the US doing it, especially not on someone else’s behalf. There are better ways forward on this one, such as diplomacy. Rubio must be livid. Hospital pass to Witkoff on Sunday.
Still, I wouldn’t underestimate the Israeli Air Force, especially if no sign off is needed. Call me stupid, but dropping a BB on a nuclear installation does not pass the sanity test. Even Putin might squirm at the thought.
Kieran, sorry this is bullets, but as you can guess its a very busy day. A few things:
1) Don’t assume US sign off here; you’d be wrong
2) Israel has some BB capability, but again the key is practicing with it (more than fallout) and here they are not up to snuff yet. They need more than US sign off; they need US active involvement as of now,
Need to correct myself here. Israel does have access to and the proficiency to use BB munitions. I believe a significant delivery from the US was made in April this year.
You are absolutely right, John. Again, of course. The MOP munitions, still the most powerful conventional weapons capable of penetrating that deep, can only be deployed via B2s, which surely are the second coolest thing ever made after the SR71. Israel does not have B2s, so any use of these munitions would have to come directly from the US.
That said, a tactical nuclear strike perhaps could achieve the same result, though with massive fallout costs. Nuclear earth penetrators could neutralise ultra deep bunkers such as Fordow. And Israel most likely has both the means and the capability to carry one out. Here is to hoping that never has to happen.
I say this with the utmost respect… I don’t think the US is implicit in this, rather it’s a shrewd move from Netanyahu…
I am so grateful that we can express ourselves in a respectful manner in this chat. I am really hoping that I can attend an in person gathering of our group.
Side note, my husband has become a HUGE British Premier Soccer League fan…
Newcastle is a fantastic city with incredibly passionate fans. I have been to St James’ Park a few times and it truly feels like a castle rising above the city.
A few years back, shortly after the Saudi takeover of the club, I went to watch them play Brighton, which is closer to where I live. Many Geordies turned up from the other end of the country on a week night wearing bed sheets and waving Saudi flags. For much of the game they chanted, “We’ve got loads of money.” It was completely ridiculous but also genuinely very funny, though more in a surreal, satirical way than anything mean spirited.
Hey Terri. I really hope you are right. Maybe I have become too cynical. Here’s to hoping the complete facts and truth come out to prove I am completely wrong.
That’s great. The premier league has become literally our greatest export!
I think the answer is the Abraham Accords… I ask myself, would there be any reason for the US to support this attack.. there is no reason and supporting this goes against everything Trump stands for.
Life is funny, I tell you about Brian Wilson, today I wake up to this. I will listen on my way to work
Netanyahu is committed to a perma-war as it secures his political survival.
In the same way Iran is committed to the perma-revolution, which secures the mullahs in place. It justifies their hold on Iranian society and economy without challenge.
Good points Erik. But, surely it is more likely that if this continues there will be no Mullahs left in place at all. That is exactly why Israel is escalating. This is brinkmanship designed to break the perma revolution, not sustain it.
What comes after the mullahs?
1960ies London?
Beatnik Teheran?
Twiggy and miniskirts?
I think you are right, but what comes next is not so clear.
Most likely something much more sinister, like history has demonstrated to us.
And here ... I have no clue. It's looking into a cloud.
Maybe. Ask them, we are not taking them out!
Hulsman, Rand, Morgenthau….
I wish Trump would cancel that parade this weekend
Thou shall not talk Odyssey on Fridays! Thank you for this, John.
The justification for the action, based on claims that Iran is breaching its nuclear obligations, has been building for weeks, but I just don’t buy that the US did not at least tacitly sanction the action. If Israel acted without coordination, that would also seriously undermine US credibility, especially the genuine diplomatic efforts to restart talks in Oman.
My understanding is that Israel already possesses BB munitions, but their use requires US sign off. I think the capability is there, but the political green light clearly was not given. Nasrallah was expertly taken out 60 feet underground! So has the risk of nuclear fuel fallout caused the hesitation?
Yes, your point on readiness seems spot on. Yes Iran’s enrichment is concerning, but a deliverable nuclear warhead, one that is miniaturised and mounted, still seems a long way off. That distinction surely matters.
I completely agree on game theory and Morgenthau 100%. Thank goodness you brought it up. We would fight for the US with courage and guile, even if the reason to do so is one we accept begrudgingly. Look forward to hearing on the developments.
and yes 3) The Israeli Intelligence time frame must be attacked, as US intellectual directly contradicts it. Even if Israel and not the US is right here missile capacity and miniturizing is not a long way off, but 12-18 moths is more than long enough for US to strike if needs be. There is simply no way this is an imminent threat, I totally agree Rather it is driven by the strategic and political imperatives and dangers for Israel that Iran is weak, and the US is increasingly disinterested (rightly) in the region as a primary interest; this is a double edged sword for Israel to dragoon the US back n the region before it completes a genuine pivot to Asia.
No worries John. I can imagine it’s bedlam! Thanks for replying.
1. That is deeply concerning, at least to me.
2. They’ve shown they can use these munitions effectively already, and why have them if not trained to use them.
That said, point taken. No one mad enough has ever used these on a nuclear target. The US is clearly best placed to carry out a strike of that magnitude upon such a sensitive target if it ever had to happen. But surely the fallout risk alone suggests they would not do it unless the threat were truly existential, which, as you say, this is not, at least for now.
So I do not see the US doing it, especially not on someone else’s behalf. There are better ways forward on this one, such as diplomacy. Rubio must be livid. Hospital pass to Witkoff on Sunday.
Still, I wouldn’t underestimate the Israeli Air Force, especially if no sign off is needed. Call me stupid, but dropping a BB on a nuclear installation does not pass the sanity test. Even Putin might squirm at the thought.
Kieran, sorry this is bullets, but as you can guess its a very busy day. A few things:
1) Don’t assume US sign off here; you’d be wrong
2) Israel has some BB capability, but again the key is practicing with it (more than fallout) and here they are not up to snuff yet. They need more than US sign off; they need US active involvement as of now,
Need to correct myself here. Israel does have access to and the proficiency to use BB munitions. I believe a significant delivery from the US was made in April this year.
You are absolutely right, John. Again, of course. The MOP munitions, still the most powerful conventional weapons capable of penetrating that deep, can only be deployed via B2s, which surely are the second coolest thing ever made after the SR71. Israel does not have B2s, so any use of these munitions would have to come directly from the US.
That said, a tactical nuclear strike perhaps could achieve the same result, though with massive fallout costs. Nuclear earth penetrators could neutralise ultra deep bunkers such as Fordow. And Israel most likely has both the means and the capability to carry one out. Here is to hoping that never has to happen.
Kieran,
I say this with the utmost respect… I don’t think the US is implicit in this, rather it’s a shrewd move from Netanyahu…
I am so grateful that we can express ourselves in a respectful manner in this chat. I am really hoping that I can attend an in person gathering of our group.
Side note, my husband has become a HUGE British Premier Soccer League fan…
He likes Newcastle
Newcastle is a fantastic city with incredibly passionate fans. I have been to St James’ Park a few times and it truly feels like a castle rising above the city.
A few years back, shortly after the Saudi takeover of the club, I went to watch them play Brighton, which is closer to where I live. Many Geordies turned up from the other end of the country on a week night wearing bed sheets and waving Saudi flags. For much of the game they chanted, “We’ve got loads of money.” It was completely ridiculous but also genuinely very funny, though more in a surreal, satirical way than anything mean spirited.
Hey Terri. I really hope you are right. Maybe I have become too cynical. Here’s to hoping the complete facts and truth come out to prove I am completely wrong.
That’s great. The premier league has become literally our greatest export!
I think the answer is the Abraham Accords… I ask myself, would there be any reason for the US to support this attack.. there is no reason and supporting this goes against everything Trump stands for.
But if something comes out that I am wrong….