John, a second order issue in the Middle East theatre, I presume that Saudi Arabia's position is they are quietly backing the Israeli action which keeps the US engaged in the region.
Remember, the House of Saud are a dynasty, they truly have no other way of staying in power than bribing their own population by being marginally better than any other alternative for the time being, and they need to suck up the muslims and Mecca/Medinah to stay in power.
Their leverage is not as large as it seems. They are a historical incident and are by that logic intrinsically conservative.
The enrichment is now no longer the binding constraint.
Think ratios (or entropic logarithmic ratios): 99%/60% or rather ln (99%/60%) to estimate how difficult the final enrichment step is.
Effective explosion is now the crux which starts with an effective implosion: to achieve the compression to good critical densities and enough nuclear chain reaction for a good runaway boom. If it doesn't implode first, it fizzles rather than booms.
I.e. the expertise needed shifts.
A trial im/explosion would surely leave a seismic trace worldwide. Underground does not suppress the seismic waves.
But maybe it is all about the staging, about the stress/threat, about the blackmail capability for Iran. Brinkmanship.
John, Exceptional evaluation. Yes indeed, China is popping the Champs!
Next Book for the group should be "The Godfather Doctrine" timing is everything. You may feel like Odysseus in recent weeks trying to return to Ithaca.
This analysis is immense, John, and incredible value. The more time passes, the more brazen and audacious this operation appears. To put the US and its allies at real risk, potentially including civilians, and to do so without their express consent and coordination (despite Israeli claims of full coordination with the US) is outrageous. I think this point of contention is going to be extremely important going forward.
If this is not a declaration of war on Iran, then what act possibly could be? How does Russia fit into this if Iran now considers itself legally at war with Israel? What does the Arab League do now?
Yes, if the US is drawn in, China could be freer to continue its advance in the Indo Pacific largely unchecked. It is a real shame that the administration’s legitimate, diplomacy driven plan has had the rug pulled out from beneath it. What can Witkoff possibly say of any value over the weekend?
Kieran, You may want to quickly order John's book "The Godfather Doctrine", if you don't already own a copy. It's a darling little blue hardcover, looking rather like a passport:) John clearly outline the differences between the Neocon's Wilsonian's and Realist's, just Brilliant! John's books are incredibly timely...truly aging well as we all can see. At this rate we may get through John's entire collection prior visiting the Greek God's.
I knew you would:) and you should! It would be absolutely priceless. Map it out in you mind, you must. If you can't find the book I will loan you mine, but I must get it back!
Hey, I forgot to complement you son your photography skills as well Kieran. You may have a creative internal calling?
I can just about get away with some music and drawing, but thank you, it was a pleasure trying to take them. I wish I’d taken more video. Maybe next time!
If the administration was fully aware, then it’s at least complicit. You can’t demand a deal unless you helped create the crisis that made it necessary. Impartiality is out the window. This is dangerous stuff.
Kieran, it is sounding as though our administration was alerted yesterday. Trump will hold press conference sometime this morning is what is currently be reported.
Kieran, I hear you and understand, but this was not the course our administration wanted, and I believe that. I have an 11 am conference call with the neocon's.. maybe I will get further insight. I do trust John's take, and insight one zillion %. I can also dig deeper on what the experts know on the scientific evidence on the acceleration on enrichment. As of last dig, John was completely correct.
John, a second order issue in the Middle East theatre, I presume that Saudi Arabia's position is they are quietly backing the Israeli action which keeps the US engaged in the region.
I think in practice you are right Misbah; they condemned the strikes rather tepidly, but are probably not displeased the US stays more engaged.
Saudi is backing Saudi.
Remember, the House of Saud are a dynasty, they truly have no other way of staying in power than bribing their own population by being marginally better than any other alternative for the time being, and they need to suck up the muslims and Mecca/Medinah to stay in power.
Their leverage is not as large as it seems. They are a historical incident and are by that logic intrinsically conservative.
And perhaps vulnerable.
The enrichment is now no longer the binding constraint.
Think ratios (or entropic logarithmic ratios): 99%/60% or rather ln (99%/60%) to estimate how difficult the final enrichment step is.
Effective explosion is now the crux which starts with an effective implosion: to achieve the compression to good critical densities and enough nuclear chain reaction for a good runaway boom. If it doesn't implode first, it fizzles rather than booms.
I.e. the expertise needed shifts.
A trial im/explosion would surely leave a seismic trace worldwide. Underground does not suppress the seismic waves.
But maybe it is all about the staging, about the stress/threat, about the blackmail capability for Iran. Brinkmanship.
John, Exceptional evaluation. Yes indeed, China is popping the Champs!
Next Book for the group should be "The Godfather Doctrine" timing is everything. You may feel like Odysseus in recent weeks trying to return to Ithaca.
Thanks Dianne, I agree about The Godfather next, given all that is going on. We will eventually get to Ithaca!
This analysis is immense, John, and incredible value. The more time passes, the more brazen and audacious this operation appears. To put the US and its allies at real risk, potentially including civilians, and to do so without their express consent and coordination (despite Israeli claims of full coordination with the US) is outrageous. I think this point of contention is going to be extremely important going forward.
If this is not a declaration of war on Iran, then what act possibly could be? How does Russia fit into this if Iran now considers itself legally at war with Israel? What does the Arab League do now?
Yes, if the US is drawn in, China could be freer to continue its advance in the Indo Pacific largely unchecked. It is a real shame that the administration’s legitimate, diplomacy driven plan has had the rug pulled out from beneath it. What can Witkoff possibly say of any value over the weekend?
Kieran, You may want to quickly order John's book "The Godfather Doctrine", if you don't already own a copy. It's a darling little blue hardcover, looking rather like a passport:) John clearly outline the differences between the Neocon's Wilsonian's and Realist's, just Brilliant! John's books are incredibly timely...truly aging well as we all can see. At this rate we may get through John's entire collection prior visiting the Greek God's.
Hey Dianne. I will have a look. Would love to do a bike touring trip to Corleone too!
I knew you would:) and you should! It would be absolutely priceless. Map it out in you mind, you must. If you can't find the book I will loan you mine, but I must get it back!
Hey, I forgot to complement you son your photography skills as well Kieran. You may have a creative internal calling?
I can just about get away with some music and drawing, but thank you, it was a pleasure trying to take them. I wish I’d taken more video. Maybe next time!
If the administration was fully aware, then it’s at least complicit. You can’t demand a deal unless you helped create the crisis that made it necessary. Impartiality is out the window. This is dangerous stuff.
Kieran, it is sounding as though our administration was alerted yesterday. Trump will hold press conference sometime this morning is what is currently be reported.
Hi Dianne. That sure is the official story, but I find it extremely difficult to buy into all that carry on though. Sorry!
Kieran, I hear you and understand, but this was not the course our administration wanted, and I believe that. I have an 11 am conference call with the neocon's.. maybe I will get further insight. I do trust John's take, and insight one zillion %. I can also dig deeper on what the experts know on the scientific evidence on the acceleration on enrichment. As of last dig, John was completely correct.