There’s a certain irony in the situation: Israel cannot deliver a weapon capable of destroying Iran’s deeply buried nuclear sites, and Iran, even if it builds a bomb, cannot deliver it to Israel.
For me, regime change seems like a dangerously ambitious objective. As you say, attempts to wipe people out often backfire. I just hope someone in the IDF has read Seven Pillars.
John, thanks for the updates on a Sunday and what should have be a restful Fathers Day weekend. In each of these takes on the Israeli attack on Iran " Operation Rising Lion" you clearly lay out more history to the how's and why's this was not a good option. For whats is worth I also heard Netanyahu went around Trump. Israel did not want to be left with a what they assumed was going to be a bad deal. Additionally, The Saudis and Turks wish they could have done what Israel has done.
I remain hopeful Trump will proceed with his Policies, and Gut Instincts in pivoting to the Indo Pacific. Indeed it's making Lemonade now. Thanks again
Speaking of Turkey, Israel wants to remain the only, undeclared, nuclear power in the region but how would it react if Turkey started down the nuclear route? It's going to take active diplomacy for Israel and Turkey not get into conflict in Syria.
Agreed Misbah, both Turkey and Israel have been the strategic beneficiaries of the fall of Assad. Diplomacy is necessary to see as they spread their zone of influence they don’t violently bump into one another. The US is the key player here, as we are allies with both, even as their invective grows.
I think the USA (and others) should allow exporting gas turbines into Iran. With gas, Iran can develop power and industry all it wants. It truly has no use for more complicated and expensive nuclear reactors given the "Pars" (Persian) field has all the gas you would like.
Note: Qatar does what Saddam Hussein complained Kuwait did (rightly), horizontal drilling to extract other folks' oil & gas. It is the Pars field that supplies the LNG terminals in Qatar which now heads to Europe.
Separative Work Units (SWU) are a measure of the effort required to separate isotopes of uranium, specifically uranium-235 (U-235) and uranium-238 (U-238), during the enrichment process for nuclear fuel. SWU quantifies the energy and resources needed to increase the concentration of U-235, the fissionable isotope, from its natural abundance (about 0.7%) to levels suitable for nuclear reactors (typically 3–5% for light water reactors) or weapons (over 85%).
The SWU is not a unit of energy but a measure of the separation work, expressed in kilograms (kg SWU) or tonnes (tSWU, where 1 tSWU = 1,000 kg SWU). It depends on the feed uranium’s initial assay, the desired product assay, and the tails assay (the leftover U-235 concentration). For example, enriching 210 tonnes of natural uranium to produce 25 tonnes of 3.75% enriched uranium for a 1,300 MW reactor requires about 120,000 SWU annually.
Different enrichment technologies, like gaseous diffusion (requiring 2,400–2,500 kWh per SWU) or gas centrifuges (50–60 kWh per SWU), vary in energy efficiency. The cost of enrichment is often priced per SWU, with market rates around $100 per SWU in the early 2020s, though recent reference's suggest spot prices have risen to $190 due to supply disruptions.
It is done in gaseous phase (UF6). The depleted Uranium is used as ultradense shield, e.g. in tanks. It resists impact better than steel. Or for flywheels - they pack more inertial rotational momentum in a smaller wheel, because of the very high density. The enriched bit is for nuclear reactions. Waste U238 turns into Pu239 which can also support nuclear reactions (mixed oxide fuels have been used forever in Belgium).
Hi Erik, thanks for the additional context. You’re correct that uranium enrichment uses UF6 in the gaseous phase, as I noted with gaseous diffusion and centrifuge methods. Depleted uranium (U-238) is indeed valuable for its density in applications like tank armor and flywheels, complementing the enriched U-235 used in nuclear reactions. On the MOX fuel point, Belgium has used mixed oxide fuels since the 1980s in reactors like Doel and Tihange, though not “forever.” The transmutation of U-238 to Pu-239 in reactors is a key part of the fuel cycle, adding another layer to the enrichment process I described. My focus was on the SWU metric and energy efficiency of enrichment—any further insights on how these factors impact nuclear strategy or costs?
I enjoy this engagement.. but I maybe silent for a coupe of days, my mother is having heart surgery tomorrow.
Additionally we are on tangent here.. The Question is Should Iran have nuclear enrichment in some capacity???
The cry for civil nuclear is a hoax. In Iran, natural gas is the cheaper and more straightforward power source. They aim for the brinkmanship, the threat that nukes bring.
Low level is about 3% U-235 for a fuel that will generate enough neutrons in a controlled chain reaction. Below 3%, there are too many neutrons that diffuse out without reproducing equivalent neutrons to keep the nuclear chain reaction going.
I have held such pellets in my own hands, without protection. The level of radiation away from a reactor with moderation (slowing down of neutrons) is negligible.
Erik, none of this really matters geo-strategically; the civilian nuclear argument of Iran has been a smokescreen for their military nuclear programme since the Shah.
I don't do this every day, so it does not matter. People who process fuels carry a tag in their clothing that measures their exposure and lifetime exposure during daily on-site working.
Don't underestimate the hold of Israel/Jewish lobbies on the State Department and the Pentagon. And their hold on US politics through campaign finance. They decide on the basis of core Israeli strategic interests, not US strategic interests, irrespective that their wages are paid by the US tax payer.
There’s a certain irony in the situation: Israel cannot deliver a weapon capable of destroying Iran’s deeply buried nuclear sites, and Iran, even if it builds a bomb, cannot deliver it to Israel.
For me, regime change seems like a dangerously ambitious objective. As you say, attempts to wipe people out often backfire. I just hope someone in the IDF has read Seven Pillars.
I’ll try to trust more John!
John, thanks for the updates on a Sunday and what should have be a restful Fathers Day weekend. In each of these takes on the Israeli attack on Iran " Operation Rising Lion" you clearly lay out more history to the how's and why's this was not a good option. For whats is worth I also heard Netanyahu went around Trump. Israel did not want to be left with a what they assumed was going to be a bad deal. Additionally, The Saudis and Turks wish they could have done what Israel has done.
I remain hopeful Trump will proceed with his Policies, and Gut Instincts in pivoting to the Indo Pacific. Indeed it's making Lemonade now. Thanks again
Speaking of Turkey, Israel wants to remain the only, undeclared, nuclear power in the region but how would it react if Turkey started down the nuclear route? It's going to take active diplomacy for Israel and Turkey not get into conflict in Syria.
Agreed Misbah, both Turkey and Israel have been the strategic beneficiaries of the fall of Assad. Diplomacy is necessary to see as they spread their zone of influence they don’t violently bump into one another. The US is the key player here, as we are allies with both, even as their invective grows.
I think the USA (and others) should allow exporting gas turbines into Iran. With gas, Iran can develop power and industry all it wants. It truly has no use for more complicated and expensive nuclear reactors given the "Pars" (Persian) field has all the gas you would like.
Note: Qatar does what Saddam Hussein complained Kuwait did (rightly), horizontal drilling to extract other folks' oil & gas. It is the Pars field that supplies the LNG terminals in Qatar which now heads to Europe.
Good idea Erik. Maybe then they could use the deep bunkers for CCS instead!
That's a tax on vegetation.
Release all CO2!
My amateur question of the day:
What is the purpose of having a low level uranium enrichment program? What are the benefits, what is it for?
Thanks
Hi Terri, your own civilian nuclear program
Terri, and Erik, This might help..
Separative Work Units (SWU) are a measure of the effort required to separate isotopes of uranium, specifically uranium-235 (U-235) and uranium-238 (U-238), during the enrichment process for nuclear fuel. SWU quantifies the energy and resources needed to increase the concentration of U-235, the fissionable isotope, from its natural abundance (about 0.7%) to levels suitable for nuclear reactors (typically 3–5% for light water reactors) or weapons (over 85%).
The SWU is not a unit of energy but a measure of the separation work, expressed in kilograms (kg SWU) or tonnes (tSWU, where 1 tSWU = 1,000 kg SWU). It depends on the feed uranium’s initial assay, the desired product assay, and the tails assay (the leftover U-235 concentration). For example, enriching 210 tonnes of natural uranium to produce 25 tonnes of 3.75% enriched uranium for a 1,300 MW reactor requires about 120,000 SWU annually.
Different enrichment technologies, like gaseous diffusion (requiring 2,400–2,500 kWh per SWU) or gas centrifuges (50–60 kWh per SWU), vary in energy efficiency. The cost of enrichment is often priced per SWU, with market rates around $100 per SWU in the early 2020s, though recent reference's suggest spot prices have risen to $190 due to supply disruptions.
It is done in gaseous phase (UF6). The depleted Uranium is used as ultradense shield, e.g. in tanks. It resists impact better than steel. Or for flywheels - they pack more inertial rotational momentum in a smaller wheel, because of the very high density. The enriched bit is for nuclear reactions. Waste U238 turns into Pu239 which can also support nuclear reactions (mixed oxide fuels have been used forever in Belgium).
Hi Erik, thanks for the additional context. You’re correct that uranium enrichment uses UF6 in the gaseous phase, as I noted with gaseous diffusion and centrifuge methods. Depleted uranium (U-238) is indeed valuable for its density in applications like tank armor and flywheels, complementing the enriched U-235 used in nuclear reactions. On the MOX fuel point, Belgium has used mixed oxide fuels since the 1980s in reactors like Doel and Tihange, though not “forever.” The transmutation of U-238 to Pu-239 in reactors is a key part of the fuel cycle, adding another layer to the enrichment process I described. My focus was on the SWU metric and energy efficiency of enrichment—any further insights on how these factors impact nuclear strategy or costs?
I enjoy this engagement.. but I maybe silent for a coupe of days, my mother is having heart surgery tomorrow.
Additionally we are on tangent here.. The Question is Should Iran have nuclear enrichment in some capacity???
sending best to all!
Good luck to your Mom!
She text me this morning as my brother was driving her to Temple Hospital in Philadelphia..All surgeries have been canceled today, very strange.
The cry for civil nuclear is a hoax. In Iran, natural gas is the cheaper and more straightforward power source. They aim for the brinkmanship, the threat that nukes bring.
Saudi does everything with otherwise flared gas.
Abu Dhabi has 4 good KEPCOs though.
Egypt is getting ROSATOMs. The construction began about a year and a half ago. Russia will supply the fuel.
Got it, it’s a Nuclear Program, not enough to cause “The China Syndrome “
Terri see below
Low level is about 3% U-235 for a fuel that will generate enough neutrons in a controlled chain reaction. Below 3%, there are too many neutrons that diffuse out without reproducing equivalent neutrons to keep the nuclear chain reaction going.
I have held such pellets in my own hands, without protection. The level of radiation away from a reactor with moderation (slowing down of neutrons) is negligible.
Erik, none of this really matters geo-strategically; the civilian nuclear argument of Iran has been a smokescreen for their military nuclear programme since the Shah.
Obviously.
Just curious also how this translates to the life of an average person… what is it used for. I should know, but I don’t
I don't do this every day, so it does not matter. People who process fuels carry a tag in their clothing that measures their exposure and lifetime exposure during daily on-site working.
Don't underestimate the hold of Israel/Jewish lobbies on the State Department and the Pentagon. And their hold on US politics through campaign finance. They decide on the basis of core Israeli strategic interests, not US strategic interests, irrespective that their wages are paid by the US tax payer.