Dont overestimate Nuland's import. In bureaucratic political terms she was forced out when Campbell was made Deputy Sec over her. Even for Biden, she and her neocon approach have been wrong too often to promote. (Kurt is much more able anyway)
The larger point is 'miracle weapons' in history almost never move the needle (even the Manhattan Project didn't change the outcome of the war, merely hastened its end); instead those relying on them tend to show they are losing in a more prosaic strategic reality
Yes Erik, but as powerful and pernicious as Nuland is, that has not been the thrust of the Biden people. They don't mind indirectly going after Russia but are much more cautious about it being direct for obvious reasons. Although they are Wilsonians and crucially dont think in national interest priority terms, none of this is worth escalating, particularly with China/Taiwan looming. Don't overbuy a purposive administration approach here. Nuland may want an escalation but the Biden team on the whole do not. That is what makes their giving in over and over in the way I describe such a dangerous calamity.
Old F16 (40-50 years old) have been given. They are just good enough for Ukrainian pilot fighters to kill themselves by crashing into hopefully some farmland. They were so easily given because we don't want to risk our own fighter pilots in them any more. Besides, most have never been upgraded with modern avionics.
The USA will not hand over F35, which are the best quality plane they have right now. Besides, it takes 10 years of training to be a good F35 fighter pilot. Ukraine only has fighter pilots who know how to fly old Soviet Union kit.
This is a war between US/NATO & Russia. Since the start. That was always Victoria Nudelman's intention.
It is obvious that the USA has much infrastructure on the Atlantic and Pacific Coast which is immediately at risk from attack by submarines. Particularly LNG terminals on the Atlantic can be easily taken out by a good Kinzhal. My pipeline, your terminal.
We are early in that premature scenario but intelligent people read the writing on the wall.
Besides, the crucial US strategic interest are an open Atlantic and open Pacific. Beyond that, overstretch.
Dont overestimate Nuland's import. In bureaucratic political terms she was forced out when Campbell was made Deputy Sec over her. Even for Biden, she and her neocon approach have been wrong too often to promote. (Kurt is much more able anyway)
The larger point is 'miracle weapons' in history almost never move the needle (even the Manhattan Project didn't change the outcome of the war, merely hastened its end); instead those relying on them tend to show they are losing in a more prosaic strategic reality
Yes Erik, but as powerful and pernicious as Nuland is, that has not been the thrust of the Biden people. They don't mind indirectly going after Russia but are much more cautious about it being direct for obvious reasons. Although they are Wilsonians and crucially dont think in national interest priority terms, none of this is worth escalating, particularly with China/Taiwan looming. Don't overbuy a purposive administration approach here. Nuland may want an escalation but the Biden team on the whole do not. That is what makes their giving in over and over in the way I describe such a dangerous calamity.
I read your discussions all of the time, so interesting
Old F16 (40-50 years old) have been given. They are just good enough for Ukrainian pilot fighters to kill themselves by crashing into hopefully some farmland. They were so easily given because we don't want to risk our own fighter pilots in them any more. Besides, most have never been upgraded with modern avionics.
The USA will not hand over F35, which are the best quality plane they have right now. Besides, it takes 10 years of training to be a good F35 fighter pilot. Ukraine only has fighter pilots who know how to fly old Soviet Union kit.
So scary
This is a war between US/NATO & Russia. Since the start. That was always Victoria Nudelman's intention.
It is obvious that the USA has much infrastructure on the Atlantic and Pacific Coast which is immediately at risk from attack by submarines. Particularly LNG terminals on the Atlantic can be easily taken out by a good Kinzhal. My pipeline, your terminal.
We are early in that premature scenario but intelligent people read the writing on the wall.
Besides, the crucial US strategic interest are an open Atlantic and open Pacific. Beyond that, overstretch.