Spot on, John. I hope the administration is taking note. Saying ‘no’ is a distinct kind of strategic power, and few truly have the strength or independence to wield it. I guess in the end it is not just the refusal that matters, but how it is delivered and what is offered in its place.
The more I think about it, the clearer it becomes, though I appreciate I could be mistaken. The rewards of a direct strike on Fordow are not commensurate with the risk for the US. Even with B2s, there is no guarantee of success. The defences are serious, and the target may lie beyond even the reach of the MOP. Imagine the implications of a failed US mission.
Hey Dianne. Yes, they may just go deeper, so taking them out is only a temporary fix. Whack-a-mole. Better to remove the need for nuclear power entirely. Erik’s point about offering Western gas turbine tech could help, especially as they have the fuel readily available domestically.
I understand the Israeli view. If the enrichment were innocent, why the underground complexes? But there’s little talk about what comes next.
Correct, Absolutely Iran is not innocent, but with proper supervision and unified strategy with all in the region, not just Israel alone... with this could have taken a better course, and a better outcome for ALL.
Erik has excellent point and logical thinking. But what is playing out just strengthens Iran's resolve. I understand Israels problem with Iran having nuclear weapons but this path wasn't the best approach.
I listed my thoughts below on the backlash I see going forward . And John has also laid this out flawlessly.
So IF, its an "If", that Israels end game is a regime change in Iran, how did that work out when in 1953 with the CIA back the coup that overthrew Prim Minister Mohammad Mossadegh, Netanyahu , knows history... 1979 happened!!! Insanity.
I am in shock as to how this appears to be playing out
Intervention in the 50s to the Ayatollahs gaining power in '79 wasn't a straight path. There was already a revolution in the works in the 70s with a planned change of leadership, but unfortunately the religious clergy hijacked it and put themselves at the top of the heap.
The US did train the Savak, The Shah's brutal secret police, the Iranians haven't forgotten this. The light from the shining city on a hill didn't reach as far as Tehran.
Certainly Russia and China will be making hay from US Foreign Policy missteps. Russia will avail itself of Iranian drones and China will strike sweet heart deals for Iranian energy. US credibility with Iran has taken a backwards step.
Let’s see what develops in the next 24 hours. I remain hopeful that the policies Trump stands for ... Diplomacy, and No Wars, will hold, and prevaile .
Due to America's strong backing of Israel, Trump's diplomacy will be viewed as subterfuge by the Iranians. I also doubt the US limiting military sales or funding to Israel, so his No Wars platform is looking shaky.
Misbah, I need to be brief, I am heading out for a busy afternoon and evening. Several things to address quickly...
Diplomacy could work if Trump uses Iran's, weaken state to secure a nuclear deal with sanctions relief, but escalation risk, driven by Iran's response to Israel's or future strikes may derail his efforts, The odds of success depend on Trump navigating these constraints without triggering a broader war, or alienating his basis. There is much going on behind the scenes and in privet, as should be. Trumps has great internal instinct as well as an ego to be seen as a Peacemaker and a Negotiator and to follow policies he was elected on. This will unfold, and I am sure in the true Donald Trump fashion be unpredictable. J ust my internal reaction, accessing the possibilities and some realism.
The US holds both and The UK as special friends. Countries also have the right to defend themself. I need to go... more tomorrow
Amen. Intervention is not in the best interests of the US. As others have rightly said below, the risks outweigh the rewards. And if regime change does occur, who is to say it will be for the better? The one guarantee is that the US will be in their crosshairs... picturing Steve Buschemi applying lipstick as he adds Americans to his "people to kill list"... amazing that Massie and AOC can agree on something, but this is apparently it... John, good speaking to you this morning, and look forward to seeing you next month in Bermuda.
Thanks JJ, I entirely agree, and we will fight the good fight to avoid just this calamity. Yes, great to talk and I look forward to hanging out for a proper chat in Bermuda.
I’ve listened to this podcast and looked at what gets published on Substack over the last year and wondered “What is it that this Israeli government can do that would be so damaging to the world and the reputation of its allies, that America would choke on assisting it?” ‘Cos, frankly, America, you look like Netanyahu’s patsy, at the moment. (Well, John, good to have your answer - with which I heartily agree). It is not before time. If the US really was on the verge of getting an effective deal with Iran - an achievement that would rank alongside Camp David - Israel’s action is very likely to change the Iranian position, to demanding - publicly - equivalent guarantees verifiably limiting Israel’s first strike capability. That puts this all back: you are right about the ‘stiffening’ effect of bombing on Iranian resolve. On the other hand, If the Iranians cave in: how will the US ensure that Iran sticking to the deal ends the attacks? America has a lot more hard leaning to do, if it wants to solve this one. Sadly, there is one thing we all know about the person of the President: his attention is fitful and wandering, he is easy to trip on inconsistencies, and we all see the direction of his fall. Another photo-op man-to-man chat with a smirking Netanyahu ain’t going to fix anything.
PS. When I went to the synagogue that still existed in Isfahan in 2018, I was told that there are 2,000 practising Jews in the city. Is that still true? Spare a thought for all the human collateral in the damage that Israel is inflicting.
I feel that there has been a lot of manipulation on Israel’s part concerning the timing of their attack on Iran. If a deal was finalized and enforced beforehand, there would not have been a need for Israel to attack. But Israel is not going to let go of this. They will seek and destroy as much of Iran as they can. It’s a frightening time right now.
This is just my opinion on the subject. I could be wrong..
John, no need to answer, I can’t imagine how busy you are. I have been trying to learn more about “the secret sauce” aka the history as to why Iran is not a fan of the US. Stumbled upon Operation Ajax … seems a pivotal event in my humble opinion
Hi Terri, I was looking at some of the US - Iran history this past weekend after learning Trump had reached out recently to Iran to curtail the Houthies striking cargo ships, which to no surprise China has been keeping a keen eye on how the US was maneuvering and our strategies, no surprise..
So on to my point, In 1953, maybe 1954 the US backed a coup to over throw the prime minister Mohammad Mossadegh, sorry for the spelling. The Prime Minister nationalize Iran's Oil Industry.. I am sure John has a lot more history.
"In the 19th century, diplomatic relations between the United States and Persia (later Iran) began with a treaty of friendship. This treaty, signed in Constantinople in 1856, marked the formal establishment of diplomatic ties. While the relationship was initially characterized by a lack of deep engagement, both nations saw potential in each other, particularly as Persia sought allies against Russian and British influence."
Unfortunately us dastardly Brits, needing to retain the revenue from Iran's oil convinced the US that Iran would go commie if left to its own devices.
I believe MI6, the CIA, and BP had a great deal to do with it. Funny (or not) how there’s always a price to pay, and perhaps we’re seeing that play out now. What was a strategic win then is now an unravelling.
I just have a very uneasy feeling right now. Different than 911, because we didn’t know it was coming. I am anxiously awaiting Trumps address to the nation
There may be a hidden scenario where Israel does what is in its primary interests and the USA faints disagreeing with that course of Israel, but otherwise cares very little about that.
Israel will have miscalculated if Iran succeeds at putting the two refineries out of operation (Haifa is shut for now; hits on the primary boilers or the primary distillations do it pretty much for ever): destroying the above surface parts of Negev (Israel's own nuclear bomb facility); destroying some of the energy infrastructure (power plants, transformer grids) as a pest disturbance; and hitting, why not, some of the physics department of Haifa (Technion) which is where people are trained in Israel - more psychological than real because many train in the USA, but psychology matters. Better than loose shots at Tel Aviv or Jerusalem.
Spot on, John. I hope the administration is taking note. Saying ‘no’ is a distinct kind of strategic power, and few truly have the strength or independence to wield it. I guess in the end it is not just the refusal that matters, but how it is delivered and what is offered in its place.
The more I think about it, the clearer it becomes, though I appreciate I could be mistaken. The rewards of a direct strike on Fordow are not commensurate with the risk for the US. Even with B2s, there is no guarantee of success. The defences are serious, and the target may lie beyond even the reach of the MOP. Imagine the implications of a failed US mission.
Hi Kieran, I learned last week Iran was building a second faculty like Fordow. This will be a never ending endeavor.
John is completely correct Russia and US could monitory a compliance of the civil enrichment programs.
Hey Dianne. Yes, they may just go deeper, so taking them out is only a temporary fix. Whack-a-mole. Better to remove the need for nuclear power entirely. Erik’s point about offering Western gas turbine tech could help, especially as they have the fuel readily available domestically.
I understand the Israeli view. If the enrichment were innocent, why the underground complexes? But there’s little talk about what comes next.
Correct, Absolutely Iran is not innocent, but with proper supervision and unified strategy with all in the region, not just Israel alone... with this could have taken a better course, and a better outcome for ALL.
Yes! Kieran, it is wack a mole:) on steroids!!!
Erik has excellent point and logical thinking. But what is playing out just strengthens Iran's resolve. I understand Israels problem with Iran having nuclear weapons but this path wasn't the best approach.
I listed my thoughts below on the backlash I see going forward . And John has also laid this out flawlessly.
Bravo, John!
So IF, its an "If", that Israels end game is a regime change in Iran, how did that work out when in 1953 with the CIA back the coup that overthrew Prim Minister Mohammad Mossadegh, Netanyahu , knows history... 1979 happened!!! Insanity.
I am in shock as to how this appears to be playing out
Intervention in the 50s to the Ayatollahs gaining power in '79 wasn't a straight path. There was already a revolution in the works in the 70s with a planned change of leadership, but unfortunately the religious clergy hijacked it and put themselves at the top of the heap.
Misbah, I am looking at why this will not work as well as the 1953coup. And that did not end well.
And John is totally ON POINTT with this.
#1 very likely there will be National backlash: against Israel for bombing and killing Iranian citizens
#2 Fragmented Opposition: With no clear alternative a regime collapse could likely lead to more chaos, and most anti Isreael and anti west
#3 Iran becomes more resilient
#4Regional Escalations: could bring in Russia and China
#5 Strengthens Irans Nuclear Incentive: Israel paradoxically Hardens Irans belief that Nuclear weapons are needed as a deterrence.
The US did train the Savak, The Shah's brutal secret police, the Iranians haven't forgotten this. The light from the shining city on a hill didn't reach as far as Tehran.
Certainly Russia and China will be making hay from US Foreign Policy missteps. Russia will avail itself of Iranian drones and China will strike sweet heart deals for Iranian energy. US credibility with Iran has taken a backwards step.
Let’s see what develops in the next 24 hours. I remain hopeful that the policies Trump stands for ... Diplomacy, and No Wars, will hold, and prevaile .
Due to America's strong backing of Israel, Trump's diplomacy will be viewed as subterfuge by the Iranians. I also doubt the US limiting military sales or funding to Israel, so his No Wars platform is looking shaky.
Misbah, I need to be brief, I am heading out for a busy afternoon and evening. Several things to address quickly...
Diplomacy could work if Trump uses Iran's, weaken state to secure a nuclear deal with sanctions relief, but escalation risk, driven by Iran's response to Israel's or future strikes may derail his efforts, The odds of success depend on Trump navigating these constraints without triggering a broader war, or alienating his basis. There is much going on behind the scenes and in privet, as should be. Trumps has great internal instinct as well as an ego to be seen as a Peacemaker and a Negotiator and to follow policies he was elected on. This will unfold, and I am sure in the true Donald Trump fashion be unpredictable. J ust my internal reaction, accessing the possibilities and some realism.
The US holds both and The UK as special friends. Countries also have the right to defend themself. I need to go... more tomorrow
Amen. Intervention is not in the best interests of the US. As others have rightly said below, the risks outweigh the rewards. And if regime change does occur, who is to say it will be for the better? The one guarantee is that the US will be in their crosshairs... picturing Steve Buschemi applying lipstick as he adds Americans to his "people to kill list"... amazing that Massie and AOC can agree on something, but this is apparently it... John, good speaking to you this morning, and look forward to seeing you next month in Bermuda.
Thanks JJ, I entirely agree, and we will fight the good fight to avoid just this calamity. Yes, great to talk and I look forward to hanging out for a proper chat in Bermuda.
JJ, I had same reaction to AOC and Maddie
I’ve listened to this podcast and looked at what gets published on Substack over the last year and wondered “What is it that this Israeli government can do that would be so damaging to the world and the reputation of its allies, that America would choke on assisting it?” ‘Cos, frankly, America, you look like Netanyahu’s patsy, at the moment. (Well, John, good to have your answer - with which I heartily agree). It is not before time. If the US really was on the verge of getting an effective deal with Iran - an achievement that would rank alongside Camp David - Israel’s action is very likely to change the Iranian position, to demanding - publicly - equivalent guarantees verifiably limiting Israel’s first strike capability. That puts this all back: you are right about the ‘stiffening’ effect of bombing on Iranian resolve. On the other hand, If the Iranians cave in: how will the US ensure that Iran sticking to the deal ends the attacks? America has a lot more hard leaning to do, if it wants to solve this one. Sadly, there is one thing we all know about the person of the President: his attention is fitful and wandering, he is easy to trip on inconsistencies, and we all see the direction of his fall. Another photo-op man-to-man chat with a smirking Netanyahu ain’t going to fix anything.
PS. When I went to the synagogue that still existed in Isfahan in 2018, I was told that there are 2,000 practising Jews in the city. Is that still true? Spare a thought for all the human collateral in the damage that Israel is inflicting.
I feel that there has been a lot of manipulation on Israel’s part concerning the timing of their attack on Iran. If a deal was finalized and enforced beforehand, there would not have been a need for Israel to attack. But Israel is not going to let go of this. They will seek and destroy as much of Iran as they can. It’s a frightening time right now.
This is just my opinion on the subject. I could be wrong..
John, no need to answer, I can’t imagine how busy you are. I have been trying to learn more about “the secret sauce” aka the history as to why Iran is not a fan of the US. Stumbled upon Operation Ajax … seems a pivotal event in my humble opinion
Hi Terri, I was looking at some of the US - Iran history this past weekend after learning Trump had reached out recently to Iran to curtail the Houthies striking cargo ships, which to no surprise China has been keeping a keen eye on how the US was maneuvering and our strategies, no surprise..
So on to my point, In 1953, maybe 1954 the US backed a coup to over throw the prime minister Mohammad Mossadegh, sorry for the spelling. The Prime Minister nationalize Iran's Oil Industry.. I am sure John has a lot more history.
"In the 19th century, diplomatic relations between the United States and Persia (later Iran) began with a treaty of friendship. This treaty, signed in Constantinople in 1856, marked the formal establishment of diplomatic ties. While the relationship was initially characterized by a lack of deep engagement, both nations saw potential in each other, particularly as Persia sought allies against Russian and British influence."
Unfortunately us dastardly Brits, needing to retain the revenue from Iran's oil convinced the US that Iran would go commie if left to its own devices.
Neat little video produced today about the relevant history of Iran moving from an Western ally to enemy https://youtu.be/o2eZKT81fWE?si=0Zof-1Tg7AiyvDnC
Kieran, Song I believe fits in now, Bowie Hero's ???
CCR Fortunate Son, not quite right..
Hey Dianne! Great song. The mood feels like: Changes 2Pac - Don’t do it again. There’s another way.
I understand, agree…but its a great song, never less, maybe kind of semi fit?
The oil..
Misbah, yes the UK was also involved in this for economical reason I remember reading. Thanks!
I believe MI6, the CIA, and BP had a great deal to do with it. Funny (or not) how there’s always a price to pay, and perhaps we’re seeing that play out now. What was a strategic win then is now an unravelling.
Who can get John to the White House?
This is half joking with a little truth… I would pick John up at the airport myself and wait outside the gate until the briefing was over
And FAST, Terri! Things are at a total melt down now.
Thank you Erik! As always, great explanation!
I just have a very uneasy feeling right now. Different than 911, because we didn’t know it was coming. I am anxiously awaiting Trumps address to the nation
There may be a hidden scenario where Israel does what is in its primary interests and the USA faints disagreeing with that course of Israel, but otherwise cares very little about that.
Israel will have miscalculated if Iran succeeds at putting the two refineries out of operation (Haifa is shut for now; hits on the primary boilers or the primary distillations do it pretty much for ever): destroying the above surface parts of Negev (Israel's own nuclear bomb facility); destroying some of the energy infrastructure (power plants, transformer grids) as a pest disturbance; and hitting, why not, some of the physics department of Haifa (Technion) which is where people are trained in Israel - more psychological than real because many train in the USA, but psychology matters. Better than loose shots at Tel Aviv or Jerusalem.
There are many nervous about the Leviathan platform.