Hi Efrem, the problem with john’s analysis is that he presumed (incorrectly) the Ukrainians wouldn’t fight in a unitary way, because of cultural differences between east and west in the country. He also comes close to the intellectual sin of blaming the victim. Yes, surely what is happening here is a tragedy; but this is primarily and overwhelmingly putin’s fault, not ours.
Hi John, thanks for the update and the summary of the changes that Russia’s aggression has insisted in Europe. I would be interested in getting your perspective on Germany’s actions so far. At the outset Germany looked as the big blocker to any meaningful action from the west, but that has changed now and they have certainly done more than I ever expected, but what’s your take on this? Regards, Gustaf
Hi Gustaf, thanks for your kind thighs about the recent work; rest assured we will keep it coming, though sleep would be great. I think the strategic awakening of Germany (and thus the EU) is the great unintended consequence of Putin's actions. After 20 years of me begging for Berlin to run a sensible foreign policy, the Scholz government delivered more in a week than the Merkel government did in 16years. Gone is the ruinous Nord Stream 2 (which would have left Germany 70 percent dependent on gas imports from Russia), agreed to at last is Germany finally meeting the 2 percent spending of GDP on defence that Nato stipulates (after free riding off the US for decades), agreed to is money to build gas terminals to take on board US shale and Qatari gas ultimately to diversify supply away from Russia, agreed to is 10 billion euros to upgrade Germany's antiquated weapons systems. Its a dizzying, decisive change. Russia, has awakened Germany from its long strategic nap and (as a result) has set Europe on an upward strategic course for the first time in my lifetime. Its that important and your question is on the money!
Hi John, thank you for your reply. Sounds as though Germany finally woke up. It integrates g to follow German politics one never ceases to be suppressed how fast they sometimes change their mind - for good and bad they are somewhat of a drunken elephant in a Porcelain shop.
What about France, you have talked about Germany and commented on the UK but how is France handling this. They clearly try to act as a spokesman for Europe. Is this internal positing in the upcoming election, just normal frech “we want a strategically independent Europe where we are the natural leader” or what are they up to?
Hi Gustaf, A lot of it is posturing, but very successfully posturing. I wrote a recent piece for Arab News on this; by adopting the Gaullist mantle Macron has successfully tapped into 5th Republic political culture and will coast to re-election. And France does matter as a full spectrum military power. Saying this, Germany is the economic motor of Europe. France's dream to take the lead (with Germany's check book) will always have limits. But Europe, with a re-arming Germany and a strategic France, is almost reborn by this.
Thank you for the analysis, Dr. Hulsman. Having said that, I watched a clip of a lecture given by John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago, predicting that Ukraine's hard line toward Russia would get their country wrecked. With the two year time frame Putin has for this, it is an utter tragedy. Western leaders cynically sit back congratulating themselves while Ukraine gets destroyed. Unbelievable.
Hi Efrem, the problem with john’s analysis is that he presumed (incorrectly) the Ukrainians wouldn’t fight in a unitary way, because of cultural differences between east and west in the country. He also comes close to the intellectual sin of blaming the victim. Yes, surely what is happening here is a tragedy; but this is primarily and overwhelmingly putin’s fault, not ours.
Hi John, thanks for the update and the summary of the changes that Russia’s aggression has insisted in Europe. I would be interested in getting your perspective on Germany’s actions so far. At the outset Germany looked as the big blocker to any meaningful action from the west, but that has changed now and they have certainly done more than I ever expected, but what’s your take on this? Regards, Gustaf
Hi Gustaf, thanks for your kind thighs about the recent work; rest assured we will keep it coming, though sleep would be great. I think the strategic awakening of Germany (and thus the EU) is the great unintended consequence of Putin's actions. After 20 years of me begging for Berlin to run a sensible foreign policy, the Scholz government delivered more in a week than the Merkel government did in 16years. Gone is the ruinous Nord Stream 2 (which would have left Germany 70 percent dependent on gas imports from Russia), agreed to at last is Germany finally meeting the 2 percent spending of GDP on defence that Nato stipulates (after free riding off the US for decades), agreed to is money to build gas terminals to take on board US shale and Qatari gas ultimately to diversify supply away from Russia, agreed to is 10 billion euros to upgrade Germany's antiquated weapons systems. Its a dizzying, decisive change. Russia, has awakened Germany from its long strategic nap and (as a result) has set Europe on an upward strategic course for the first time in my lifetime. Its that important and your question is on the money!
Hi John, thank you for your reply. Sounds as though Germany finally woke up. It integrates g to follow German politics one never ceases to be suppressed how fast they sometimes change their mind - for good and bad they are somewhat of a drunken elephant in a Porcelain shop.
What about France, you have talked about Germany and commented on the UK but how is France handling this. They clearly try to act as a spokesman for Europe. Is this internal positing in the upcoming election, just normal frech “we want a strategically independent Europe where we are the natural leader” or what are they up to?
Hi Gustaf, A lot of it is posturing, but very successfully posturing. I wrote a recent piece for Arab News on this; by adopting the Gaullist mantle Macron has successfully tapped into 5th Republic political culture and will coast to re-election. And France does matter as a full spectrum military power. Saying this, Germany is the economic motor of Europe. France's dream to take the lead (with Germany's check book) will always have limits. But Europe, with a re-arming Germany and a strategic France, is almost reborn by this.
Thank you for the analysis, Dr. Hulsman. Having said that, I watched a clip of a lecture given by John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago, predicting that Ukraine's hard line toward Russia would get their country wrecked. With the two year time frame Putin has for this, it is an utter tragedy. Western leaders cynically sit back congratulating themselves while Ukraine gets destroyed. Unbelievable.