I started going to Koh Samui in '93 when it used to be just shacks on a beach. Nearly got attacked by an angry farang and his local pals in Chiang Mai for a drunken pub prank on a high school trip not received at all well - both have changed out of sight since then!
Bangkok has really come into its own as an international city (it's much cheaper than Hong Kong, with many more golf courses) and is also increasingly well known for it's high energy, entrepreneur friendly set up (albeit it's a little too hot and humid for half the year).
Glad to hear you got out there, hope you got some poolside down time with cheap Thai food and pina coladas in tow!
Has Europe scoffed so much socialist sugar that its natural insulin, the instinct to take risk, no longer works? Now reliant on artificial fixes like debt and stimulus, the system is slow, dependent, and unable to self correct. Type 2 economics. Is pure capitalism the only antidote, or has risk become so alien that even the cure looks like a threat?
And happy 21st to Sara! What a place to celebrate a birthday.
More capitalism is the only answer to a problem like Europe (and Argentina) - get the lefties, regulators, academics and intellectuals out of the way, take bold decisions (which aren't really bold, more just common sense) on regulation, net zero and mass migration etc, and let the market take over.
It really is shocking just how out of touch, and stupid, our governing class are (and how much they'll double down on society destroying "be kind" policies - Gad Saad's suicidal empathy defines this perfectly), but here we are.
At either end of the spectrum, either technocrats control the market on the left or the market runs wild on the right - if you had to pick one, you'd go right (see USA vs Soviet Union).
Yes, the fatal flaw of unregulated capitalism is exploitation and greed - the financial crisis as you point out - but the obvious things should be regulated, with rule breakers punished (like you said, nobody in the GFC really was).
So unless one wants communism (!), it's better to pick a spot as far to the right as is necessary (speak to people from Russia or Argentina and they'll say go as far right as possible - and the more you see situations like Britain is in today, or was in the late 70's, the same can surely be said).
Who controls the market?
The party voted in decides how free it should be (in theory anyway - the deep state / blob will naturally resist), which is why Milei really is the free market poster boy.
Likewise Trump, even though the USA has always been much freer than most, the difference being that Trump had to overcome the entire apparatus of the censorial left wing machine to win (the democratic party, MSM, socialist billionaires, the WEF inspired class etc).
I have no doubt history will shine on him for it.
Regarding pensions - a good thing of course, but they're even better in growing economies and stock markets, of which the UK has neither.
And if I've understood you correctly, free markets don't mean an economy devoid of sensible "socialist" ideas (although the degree to which these are implemented will always be up for debate), it more accurately refers to tax and regulation, and top down technocratic policies like net zero, mass migration and ESG / DEI.
Not sure if you've heard of the Foundations report but it puts the state of the UK today down to much of the above - https://ukfoundations.co/
Hi Simon, thanks for this. I’ll take a look. Unfortunately, I think the reality is that the system we favour often depends on our socioeconomic status at the time of choosing. We tend to decide based more on what we might lose than on what we could gain.
I see Milei as the free market poster boy because of where he started. When collapse wipes out the old order, the appeal lies in offering a radical clean break from a failing status quo. In that context, Argentina has chosen the only approach with the potential to propel it into something better. And fair play to them, just leave Port Stanley alone!
That kind of reset is not possible in the UK because it has not yet experienced a true collapse that would force a fundamental rethink.
I may get hammered for saying this, but I struggle to see how any saturated, mature capitalist economy could replicate the kind of primal capitalist freedom Argentina now enjoys. The system is too deeply rigged by institutionalised winners who have already gamed it to protect their power. That is not to say it is the wrong system, only that could it be wishcasting to believe it can be applied in primal form at this stage of the economic cycle?
The real challenge, I suppose, is how the system can be pruned and revitalised to foster healthy economic growth, while simultaneously equitably caring for those in the dawn, the shadows, and the twilight of life.
That's probably right about one's socioeconomic status, but there should be nothing about the current shower of leftism that suggests it's a winning proposition, so the answer definitely can't be more of it (see the UK, or California, but look at the guy running for Mayor of New York - clearly socialism has it's appeal, horribly misguided as it is).
Milei was 50 years overdue but he got there in there end, I just hope the UK can short cut its date with destiny because that's where we're headed (the Foundations reports is damning, and I cannot think of a single good thing to say about this government).
If Reform get in (and how much do I hope they will, assuming they stick with their right-er wing principles) then reform is coming - check out Zia Yusuf on x-Twitter, he is absolutely saying and doing the right things.
Donald Trump is taking a scythe to the deep state, because he knows better how it works having had 4 years' experience.
Dominic Cummings in the UK has just given an excellent speech on how to dismantle the blob as he was dealing with it first hand under Boris Johnson.
And the beauty of America is it's ability to reinvent itself - incredible that that can be said about such a large country - which is purely because it's such a dynamic, free economy (with externalities of course), so there's no reason the UK can't aim to be like that (this agility being a potential benefit of leaving the EU, which we failed to capitalise on).
Maybe I'm being a little idealistic(!), but if you sort people's housing and healthcare, free up the markets you then have Singapore on Thames ... and that is surely a very good thing.
Evening Simon. Yes I agree with a lot of what you said. I’m not yet totally convinced by Reform. Criticising is easy but leading is another matter. As for Singapore, we were promised Raffles but ended up with Greggs by the river.
America is a unique place in my mind. The UK can certainly take inspiration from it but it needs to find its own purpose and relevance in the modern world, grounded in its distinct history and identity. I so hope it can!
Can’t quite bring myself to listen to Dominic. Hard to take him seriously after the scenic eye test.
John, First off thanks for taking time out the long overdue family holiday to do this one. In a matter of minutes you distilled the always polarizing Tariff and Trade Deals of DJT and company, into a clear, logical and evidence based analysis. What may have may seem like thunderclaps were turned into a gentle snow fall, just a visualization on my part.. it's complex but there is a method. Additionally, thank you for the brief mention and thoughts on the BRICS nations and the current status. Please enjoy the remainder of the Holiday, and the Birthday celbrations for Sarah. Best!
Here's another comment that I think has not been absorbed adequately by the financial sector. The markets don't give a hoot about the tariffs - only the market strategists, traders and portfolio managers from the investment banks and the investment managers care. If anything, the markets are inspecting where to invest in the USA (sector/region/corporate).
Every commentator, every pundit projects disaster for the economy and for the market; in practice, the markets shrugged the whole story off by Monday 7th April, just 5 days after the announcement on Wednesday 2nd April and soon enough surpassed previous highs reached shortly after the November election. Monday 7th April was the day to invest, to commit fresh money. You are not going to see that interim low point any time soon.
Furthermore, while everyone is predicting a new economic dawn in Europe, even the downgraded growth rates for the USA (to 1.5% - which I believe is too low) easily outperform the upgraded growth rates for Europe and the UK (to an astonishing 1.0%). Is anyone far enough in their primary school arithmetics class yet to appreciate 1.5% > 1.0%? Apparently the analysts of Goldman Sachs are not. Mind you, the USA is growing further from a level that has long surpassed 2019 pre-Covid pre-lockdown (which Europe - with plenty of spare production gaps - has not) and is growing harder nonetheless.
Final point: with the illegal immigrant inflow blocked and first returns on their way, the labour productivity trends are bound to improve and GDP/capita will be even better. Social security costs will abate, illegal immigrants are notorious for not paying taxes and instead taking up huge social benefits and provoking other costs on society (such as necessary policing, costs of theft and violence, drugs abuse & dealing etc).
Note: all and anything that I say is simultaneously blatantly obvious and anathema to Harvard trained economists and Wall Streeters.
Very interesting, Eric. I wonder whether there’s also space to consider that not all capital follows pure return maximisation? Some investors do allocate capital not solely based on growth projections or headline numbers, but also to influence outcomes, align with values, or support strategic national interests.
The USA can still privatise media (PBS, NPR), the USPS and AmTrak. AmTrak in particular has not yet adapted to the jet age, 75 years in. USPS is at risk being totally outplayed in the age of electronics & email and internet shopping (where logistics is the future, not postal mail). Better to pull the trigger now, while there may be some residual value and some turnaround potential left. The money raised is less important than putting these companies through significant restructuring now rather than a later bankruptcy and shutdown. Delaying will only make it worse.
Besides this, I see Trump after putting the BBB through and into operation, returning to DOGE 2.0. Trump has the Oval Office and can appoint as he sees best fit. The deeper cuts would likely be used for a corporate tax cut, putting the USA at an even larger distance from Europe in terms of pro-business and pro-investment framework. The economy would continue to grow and deal with the deficit (as Reagan's tax cuts did by the 1990ies when the economy cumulatively ballooned past its earlier performance).
I started going to Koh Samui in '93 when it used to be just shacks on a beach. Nearly got attacked by an angry farang and his local pals in Chiang Mai for a drunken pub prank on a high school trip not received at all well - both have changed out of sight since then!
Bangkok has really come into its own as an international city (it's much cheaper than Hong Kong, with many more golf courses) and is also increasingly well known for it's high energy, entrepreneur friendly set up (albeit it's a little too hot and humid for half the year).
Glad to hear you got out there, hope you got some poolside down time with cheap Thai food and pina coladas in tow!
Hi John. Glad you found time for this.
Has Europe scoffed so much socialist sugar that its natural insulin, the instinct to take risk, no longer works? Now reliant on artificial fixes like debt and stimulus, the system is slow, dependent, and unable to self correct. Type 2 economics. Is pure capitalism the only antidote, or has risk become so alien that even the cure looks like a threat?
And happy 21st to Sara! What a place to celebrate a birthday.
More capitalism is the only answer to a problem like Europe (and Argentina) - get the lefties, regulators, academics and intellectuals out of the way, take bold decisions (which aren't really bold, more just common sense) on regulation, net zero and mass migration etc, and let the market take over.
It really is shocking just how out of touch, and stupid, our governing class are (and how much they'll double down on society destroying "be kind" policies - Gad Saad's suicidal empathy defines this perfectly), but here we are.
At either end of the spectrum, either technocrats control the market on the left or the market runs wild on the right - if you had to pick one, you'd go right (see USA vs Soviet Union).
Yes, the fatal flaw of unregulated capitalism is exploitation and greed - the financial crisis as you point out - but the obvious things should be regulated, with rule breakers punished (like you said, nobody in the GFC really was).
So unless one wants communism (!), it's better to pick a spot as far to the right as is necessary (speak to people from Russia or Argentina and they'll say go as far right as possible - and the more you see situations like Britain is in today, or was in the late 70's, the same can surely be said).
Who controls the market?
The party voted in decides how free it should be (in theory anyway - the deep state / blob will naturally resist), which is why Milei really is the free market poster boy.
Likewise Trump, even though the USA has always been much freer than most, the difference being that Trump had to overcome the entire apparatus of the censorial left wing machine to win (the democratic party, MSM, socialist billionaires, the WEF inspired class etc).
I have no doubt history will shine on him for it.
Regarding pensions - a good thing of course, but they're even better in growing economies and stock markets, of which the UK has neither.
And if I've understood you correctly, free markets don't mean an economy devoid of sensible "socialist" ideas (although the degree to which these are implemented will always be up for debate), it more accurately refers to tax and regulation, and top down technocratic policies like net zero, mass migration and ESG / DEI.
Not sure if you've heard of the Foundations report but it puts the state of the UK today down to much of the above - https://ukfoundations.co/
Hi Simon, thanks for this. I’ll take a look. Unfortunately, I think the reality is that the system we favour often depends on our socioeconomic status at the time of choosing. We tend to decide based more on what we might lose than on what we could gain.
I see Milei as the free market poster boy because of where he started. When collapse wipes out the old order, the appeal lies in offering a radical clean break from a failing status quo. In that context, Argentina has chosen the only approach with the potential to propel it into something better. And fair play to them, just leave Port Stanley alone!
That kind of reset is not possible in the UK because it has not yet experienced a true collapse that would force a fundamental rethink.
I may get hammered for saying this, but I struggle to see how any saturated, mature capitalist economy could replicate the kind of primal capitalist freedom Argentina now enjoys. The system is too deeply rigged by institutionalised winners who have already gamed it to protect their power. That is not to say it is the wrong system, only that could it be wishcasting to believe it can be applied in primal form at this stage of the economic cycle?
The real challenge, I suppose, is how the system can be pruned and revitalised to foster healthy economic growth, while simultaneously equitably caring for those in the dawn, the shadows, and the twilight of life.
That's probably right about one's socioeconomic status, but there should be nothing about the current shower of leftism that suggests it's a winning proposition, so the answer definitely can't be more of it (see the UK, or California, but look at the guy running for Mayor of New York - clearly socialism has it's appeal, horribly misguided as it is).
Milei was 50 years overdue but he got there in there end, I just hope the UK can short cut its date with destiny because that's where we're headed (the Foundations reports is damning, and I cannot think of a single good thing to say about this government).
If Reform get in (and how much do I hope they will, assuming they stick with their right-er wing principles) then reform is coming - check out Zia Yusuf on x-Twitter, he is absolutely saying and doing the right things.
Donald Trump is taking a scythe to the deep state, because he knows better how it works having had 4 years' experience.
Dominic Cummings in the UK has just given an excellent speech on how to dismantle the blob as he was dealing with it first hand under Boris Johnson.
And the beauty of America is it's ability to reinvent itself - incredible that that can be said about such a large country - which is purely because it's such a dynamic, free economy (with externalities of course), so there's no reason the UK can't aim to be like that (this agility being a potential benefit of leaving the EU, which we failed to capitalise on).
Maybe I'm being a little idealistic(!), but if you sort people's housing and healthcare, free up the markets you then have Singapore on Thames ... and that is surely a very good thing.
Evening Simon. Yes I agree with a lot of what you said. I’m not yet totally convinced by Reform. Criticising is easy but leading is another matter. As for Singapore, we were promised Raffles but ended up with Greggs by the river.
America is a unique place in my mind. The UK can certainly take inspiration from it but it needs to find its own purpose and relevance in the modern world, grounded in its distinct history and identity. I so hope it can!
Can’t quite bring myself to listen to Dominic. Hard to take him seriously after the scenic eye test.
John, First off thanks for taking time out the long overdue family holiday to do this one. In a matter of minutes you distilled the always polarizing Tariff and Trade Deals of DJT and company, into a clear, logical and evidence based analysis. What may have may seem like thunderclaps were turned into a gentle snow fall, just a visualization on my part.. it's complex but there is a method. Additionally, thank you for the brief mention and thoughts on the BRICS nations and the current status. Please enjoy the remainder of the Holiday, and the Birthday celbrations for Sarah. Best!
Here's another comment that I think has not been absorbed adequately by the financial sector. The markets don't give a hoot about the tariffs - only the market strategists, traders and portfolio managers from the investment banks and the investment managers care. If anything, the markets are inspecting where to invest in the USA (sector/region/corporate).
Every commentator, every pundit projects disaster for the economy and for the market; in practice, the markets shrugged the whole story off by Monday 7th April, just 5 days after the announcement on Wednesday 2nd April and soon enough surpassed previous highs reached shortly after the November election. Monday 7th April was the day to invest, to commit fresh money. You are not going to see that interim low point any time soon.
Furthermore, while everyone is predicting a new economic dawn in Europe, even the downgraded growth rates for the USA (to 1.5% - which I believe is too low) easily outperform the upgraded growth rates for Europe and the UK (to an astonishing 1.0%). Is anyone far enough in their primary school arithmetics class yet to appreciate 1.5% > 1.0%? Apparently the analysts of Goldman Sachs are not. Mind you, the USA is growing further from a level that has long surpassed 2019 pre-Covid pre-lockdown (which Europe - with plenty of spare production gaps - has not) and is growing harder nonetheless.
Final point: with the illegal immigrant inflow blocked and first returns on their way, the labour productivity trends are bound to improve and GDP/capita will be even better. Social security costs will abate, illegal immigrants are notorious for not paying taxes and instead taking up huge social benefits and provoking other costs on society (such as necessary policing, costs of theft and violence, drugs abuse & dealing etc).
Note: all and anything that I say is simultaneously blatantly obvious and anathema to Harvard trained economists and Wall Streeters.
Very interesting, Eric. I wonder whether there’s also space to consider that not all capital follows pure return maximisation? Some investors do allocate capital not solely based on growth projections or headline numbers, but also to influence outcomes, align with values, or support strategic national interests.
Some people want to lose money. Then others make all the more money, as they can hand over the losers to those who want to lose money.
I just passed up an investors lunch on DEI investing and ESG investing. I had the lunch, but then left before the following seminars.
I’m talking about real returns, just not the peaks. Hope the quinoa was fluffy.
The USA can still privatise media (PBS, NPR), the USPS and AmTrak. AmTrak in particular has not yet adapted to the jet age, 75 years in. USPS is at risk being totally outplayed in the age of electronics & email and internet shopping (where logistics is the future, not postal mail). Better to pull the trigger now, while there may be some residual value and some turnaround potential left. The money raised is less important than putting these companies through significant restructuring now rather than a later bankruptcy and shutdown. Delaying will only make it worse.
Besides this, I see Trump after putting the BBB through and into operation, returning to DOGE 2.0. Trump has the Oval Office and can appoint as he sees best fit. The deeper cuts would likely be used for a corporate tax cut, putting the USA at an even larger distance from Europe in terms of pro-business and pro-investment framework. The economy would continue to grow and deal with the deficit (as Reagan's tax cuts did by the 1990ies when the economy cumulatively ballooned past its earlier performance).