Ideological delusion: a form of mental illness which leads to ever deeper engagement in a lost cause. And the Germans quite simply are gullible. It is part of their psyche, in remorse of the 2nd WW, they are now incorrigeably stuck in it.
The current generation of Union politicians is also nothing like Konrad Adenauer, Helmut Kohl or F.J. Strauss. Paradoxically, SPD Schröder (a bricklayer who did his Law Degree in the evenings) was the last of that make-up. Those who lived through the war had an understanding that an economy requires hard graft for recovery and growth. The current generation are a bunch of daisies.
Hi John, thank you as always for another fantastic podcast. I listen to you now more than any other media outlet. Might be time after 20plus years to cancel my Economist subscription, that gets less of my attention with every passing week! I echo Erik's thoughts really, here in the UK, our recent budget showed a shocking lack of understanding by Rachel Reeves as to how our economy actually works. 60% of our GDP comes from private consumption (70% in the USA) and her ideas are, rather than nurture this, is to tax it into poverty. When ideology is placed above sound economic policy nobody wins. We have made a difficult situation in the UK even harder with this budget. Don't even get me started on our energy policy.....
Hi Rob, Greetings from DC, where I am just about to begin the long slog home (I’ll be back in 24 hours, incredible we cannot do better) but wanted to write. Thanks so much about the podcast; we are thrilled we are becoming the community’s ‘go to’ media source (I cancelled my Economist subscription, too it’s not as well written as it used to be and is so brain-dead establishment). We take that charge very seriously, and will keep the quality and the quantity as high as we can. Yes, broadly I agree with you and Erik; there is no doubt (as we’ve said many times) that the UK and Europe are in decline, with a rising America set to retain its dominant place and Asia on the ups. The numbers back this up are irrefutable and staggering. I also agree that the Starmer government is even worse than I thought, on both Jeffersonian rights and basic economic competence. As you say, its a lack of understanding at the micro level how economics works plus the horribly wrongheaded socialist ideology that are dooming it. France is drifting with Macron just a placeholder, while Italy grows at next to nothing. I’d say (relatively only) German is in marginally better shape, but yes, overall, Europe and the UK are in terminal decline. This distresses me (the UK part) because in the bracing new era, more not less will be asked of them all, in terms of geopolitics, macroeconomics, defence issues, and even internal order. I too fear they will not be up to it; as Erik said part of it is historical-biographical and generational; simply put they are decadent. They will need a resilience they simply do not possess. History is a stern taskmaster. Take care, and speak on the other side, John
I wonder if there is a "shy AfD" voter? Together with redistribution of the seats given up by the parties which fail the 5% threshold, AfD could land 1 in 4 seats in the Bundestag as their current potential. It is besides the East particularly the strong South West Union Länder where they do well in the West (even in Bavaria now); less so in historic SPD heartland (Bremen; Hamburg, Niedersachsen...)
I am far less optimistic on Germany (as well as France and the UK). The place is bust. So much of the economy has been thrashed and quasi all investment of the past 2 decades was costly and negative productivity - doing things less well than before, just (meaningless) "green".
The Union is thoroughly indoctrinated with green and marxist ideology. Angela von der Leyen and Friedrich Merkel haven't convinced me at all that they saw the light, and even if they did, it would be an uphill struggle. Structural damage once inflicted in many ways is irreversible; a door was shut and it takes inhuman effort to trace back as all the levers suddenly work against you. It is in practical terms impossible: suppliers, logistics, skilled & visionary management, trained staff, even just the universities and technical schools where you can recruit - all gone. The ecology for businesses to work with is just gone. Other countries are now ahead and just better at those things.
The USA with Trump and team is going to be an incredibly competitive challenge to Europe, another compounding factor. So my investments go to the USA. What is left, goes to Asia, which does not need Europe anymore. Higher growth, better productivity and higher returns. Europe will not outperform inflation. Thanks, but no thanks.
Ideological delusion: a form of mental illness which leads to ever deeper engagement in a lost cause. And the Germans quite simply are gullible. It is part of their psyche, in remorse of the 2nd WW, they are now incorrigeably stuck in it.
The current generation of Union politicians is also nothing like Konrad Adenauer, Helmut Kohl or F.J. Strauss. Paradoxically, SPD Schröder (a bricklayer who did his Law Degree in the evenings) was the last of that make-up. Those who lived through the war had an understanding that an economy requires hard graft for recovery and growth. The current generation are a bunch of daisies.
Hi John, thank you as always for another fantastic podcast. I listen to you now more than any other media outlet. Might be time after 20plus years to cancel my Economist subscription, that gets less of my attention with every passing week! I echo Erik's thoughts really, here in the UK, our recent budget showed a shocking lack of understanding by Rachel Reeves as to how our economy actually works. 60% of our GDP comes from private consumption (70% in the USA) and her ideas are, rather than nurture this, is to tax it into poverty. When ideology is placed above sound economic policy nobody wins. We have made a difficult situation in the UK even harder with this budget. Don't even get me started on our energy policy.....
Hi Rob, Greetings from DC, where I am just about to begin the long slog home (I’ll be back in 24 hours, incredible we cannot do better) but wanted to write. Thanks so much about the podcast; we are thrilled we are becoming the community’s ‘go to’ media source (I cancelled my Economist subscription, too it’s not as well written as it used to be and is so brain-dead establishment). We take that charge very seriously, and will keep the quality and the quantity as high as we can. Yes, broadly I agree with you and Erik; there is no doubt (as we’ve said many times) that the UK and Europe are in decline, with a rising America set to retain its dominant place and Asia on the ups. The numbers back this up are irrefutable and staggering. I also agree that the Starmer government is even worse than I thought, on both Jeffersonian rights and basic economic competence. As you say, its a lack of understanding at the micro level how economics works plus the horribly wrongheaded socialist ideology that are dooming it. France is drifting with Macron just a placeholder, while Italy grows at next to nothing. I’d say (relatively only) German is in marginally better shape, but yes, overall, Europe and the UK are in terminal decline. This distresses me (the UK part) because in the bracing new era, more not less will be asked of them all, in terms of geopolitics, macroeconomics, defence issues, and even internal order. I too fear they will not be up to it; as Erik said part of it is historical-biographical and generational; simply put they are decadent. They will need a resilience they simply do not possess. History is a stern taskmaster. Take care, and speak on the other side, John
Thank you for taking the time to reply John. Have a safe journey home, hopefully you can get some sleep on the plane :-)
I wonder if there is a "shy AfD" voter? Together with redistribution of the seats given up by the parties which fail the 5% threshold, AfD could land 1 in 4 seats in the Bundestag as their current potential. It is besides the East particularly the strong South West Union Länder where they do well in the West (even in Bavaria now); less so in historic SPD heartland (Bremen; Hamburg, Niedersachsen...)
I am far less optimistic on Germany (as well as France and the UK). The place is bust. So much of the economy has been thrashed and quasi all investment of the past 2 decades was costly and negative productivity - doing things less well than before, just (meaningless) "green".
The Union is thoroughly indoctrinated with green and marxist ideology. Angela von der Leyen and Friedrich Merkel haven't convinced me at all that they saw the light, and even if they did, it would be an uphill struggle. Structural damage once inflicted in many ways is irreversible; a door was shut and it takes inhuman effort to trace back as all the levers suddenly work against you. It is in practical terms impossible: suppliers, logistics, skilled & visionary management, trained staff, even just the universities and technical schools where you can recruit - all gone. The ecology for businesses to work with is just gone. Other countries are now ahead and just better at those things.
The USA with Trump and team is going to be an incredibly competitive challenge to Europe, another compounding factor. So my investments go to the USA. What is left, goes to Asia, which does not need Europe anymore. Higher growth, better productivity and higher returns. Europe will not outperform inflation. Thanks, but no thanks.