You are entirely right, Jacqueline; as someone who has lived in Europe for nearly two decades (and has attended conferences here for longer) it has been beyond frustrating to watch the continent's lotus-eating elites become increasingly unaware of the perils of the world around them. The first step in dealing with a problem is to acknowledge that you have one. That Europe is so late waking up to its strategic folly is the fault of its gormless leadership. As for the imagery, we aim to keep it lively. Greetings from both me and the (battle-hardened) cats, John
Hey thanks Rob. Yes on one level its entirely understandable, given historically how long Europe and the UK have been central to world events; the muscle memory is there. But sadly, as you point out, the policies are not. The UK in particular must aspire to more than managed decline of a big over-regulated state, net zero lunacy, and limited aspirations. Here's hoping. Have a great weekend yourself!
The "Europe" that actually worked (with ups and downs), for a surprisingly long era, was the Holy Roman Empire. Heiliges Roemisches Reich Deutscher Nation was its official title. It included North Italy up to Rome (with the pope anointing the emperor and the emperor "fidei defensor" defending the catholic faith and Rome and Italy's safety). In certain eras it stretched deep into slavic nations (surviving for another century as the Austrian-Hungarian Koenig und Kaiser arrangement). The capital moved from Aachen to Nuernberg, Praha and Vienna amongst others. In other eras it included through Habsburg family crowns (though never legally) Iberia (Spain & some time Portugal; the greatest emperor Charles the V, born in Gent, Flanders, died in a monastery, San Jeronimo de Yuste, in Spain where he retired when the military horse & saddle which were his life became too much for his aging bones). It was immensely successful (despite having been affected by the religious discords - the Thirty Years War devastated Germany - and beaten on the battlefield a number of times - often enough by the competitive French, which was a Grande Nation once, times past!) It even expanded successfully (though never legally) to the British isles when the Hanoverians landed the top job in London.
It was intellectually and philosophically etched onto the earlier Roman empire and onto the catholic model of religion under a single church headed by the pope, with the emperor - primus inter pares supposedly - enacting defence, united economy (the landed estates - latifundia - for agricultural punch and Roman-wide trade across the Mediterannean, the rivers and the legionnaire roads in Europe) and political & social power, even Roman law everywhere. Outdoors of my London Wall office, there are the typical flat Roman bricks which made the Walls of Roman Londinium. You will find the same flat Roman bricks in (I-)stan-bul or (Con-)stan(-tino-)pol(-is) as here. Worth reading your Gibbon and your Mommsen again (which will take you the better part of 2025).
Let's skip the 3rd attempt, which militarily froze to death in Russia (bit like now) & the 4th attempt, which was over in a Blitz. Inbetween Klemens Fuerst von Metternich did a good job accommodating a somewhat consensual Europe of Nations (Kissinger's PhD thesis in case you are interested; Herr Dr. Kissinger became a lifelong balance-of-power practitioner following Metternich's diplomatic recipes).
The 5th attempt, self-destroyed in an obese expansion to the East (a Major and Blair plot to dilute the EU into an unmanageable mess) and picking a single currency, eliminating all economic resilience of the component parts, also destroying the best central bank ever - the original Deutsche Bundesbank of D-Mark fame.
Hey Kieran, yes, I must admit as a human it is if 20 years of crying in the wilderness has rather suddenly been vindicated; I don't quite know how to react to it. True, the only possible way forward for Europe is confederal, as that is the only option that has the political legitimacy to do the tough things to get the continent going again. Everything else is just a one-way ticket to nowhere and even more irrelevance. Vast swathes of Europe have voted for their nation first, the EU second. Only otherworldly Brussels bureaucrats disagree. Now is the time for choosing, but any other choice will end in disaster.
Well I do hope you are enjoying a few pints of Guinness. The wait was worth it, drink it in! As humans, if we can’t celebrate our successes what else can we do?
I can feel your sense of vindication, John. Many congratulations!
The nations that make up the EU can only function as a confederacy, never a federal state. That much is clear (proof in the voting pudding). But how can it be called a union when its members refuse to be bound like one? Maybe the EU should return to the EC once again. These nations must be recognised for their unique strengths and idiosyncrasies, not forced into an impotent, homogenised, and stifling federal model. This is a Rubicon moment for the EU, a time to get real and sort itself out.
With the US pulling the life support, Europe faces a cold plunge into reality. If it embraces its confederal nature and builds upon its diversity instead of continuing to straightjacket itself, maybe the European dream still has some legs. After all, Europe is still a magnificent place, even with the Parisians in it.
Will be fascinating to see the European response to this week’s work…
Thanks. It all sounds sadly accurate, especially EU leaders being completely blind to where they are. You left us with some quite memorable mental visions: you stabbing yourself in the eye whilst reading The Guardian, and you and the cats defending your front door against invaders!
Thanks John, another great podcast. A fairly sad reminder of how far Europe has fallen. I am not surprised though that they cannot accept the inevitable changes that are coming, it is the same in the UK. People don't like to let go of the past. Anyway, thanks again and have a great weekend :-)
I think end of the day Trump & Vance will be more interested in developing a good relationship or - in case too difficult - at least a modus vivendi & a modus operandi with China, India and Russia and quite simply drop Europe off the call list.
A BRICS with 4 members. I let Goldman Sachs look for the best acronym.
A (flawed) analogy with what Richard Nixon did with Viet Nam (but still useful): Vietnamization - declare it a local issue, hand over to the ARVN, pull the US out.
I think Putin wants to wear it out as much as he can, acquiring more territory and reducing Ukraine (in territory, in economy and in demographics). Czech baristas and cloak room girls are Ukrainian young ladies, who happily took up the war to leave the country (I tried speaking Russian seeing their Cyrillic mobile phones but they replied in the Ukrainian dialect).
Besides, the longer term is that Ukraine is useless to Europe (as it is to the US) and really only Russia has a vested interest in economically developing Ukraine, linking it up over the Black Sea to the Middle East, Asia and Africa. So it was for Stalin, so it is for Putin and so it will be for the next fellow. Ukraine in Europe is a border land, off the beaten track, not on anyone's roadmap to anywhere, but for Russia.
Same thing for the Baltics really, NATO or NOT-O. Those 3 countries are emptying, quickly, and the demographics and emigration lead to zero population, some time this century. Only Russian speakers remain (even increase with immigration), providing services and solutions to the larger Russian hinterland which is the only intrinsic economic driver there, barring massive EU subsidies (which land in corrupt pockets, what else could happen).
If Europe tries to integrate those territories harder, they waste no end of money with the outcome that the local population emigrates westwards more quickly, precipitating the outcome.
Short term, demographics does not matter. Long term, nothing but demographics matters.
Bottom line Erik, you are entirely right in that Ukraine will always matter more to Russia than it does to either Europe or the US. This interest-based realist view makes the Wilsonian clamouring about it so self-defeating; we look weak for absolutely no reason. The fault of Biden and Brussels, but there it is
Trump is moving Putin back into ... well, not the "Western" camp..., but into the US camp.
See, Trump's composure at the homecoming welcome in the White House of a US drugs trader (a US teacher in regular life) caught in Russia. Very diplomatic, very political and very, very smart.
That must worry Xi Jin Ping.
Wrapping up the Ukraine war may give this approach a lot more legs.
Yes, its surely the only way the Russia play can strategically over time even have a chance, a 'reverse Nixon' has been whispered about. That goes nowhere with the Ukraine War on. With it off.....
You are entirely right, Jacqueline; as someone who has lived in Europe for nearly two decades (and has attended conferences here for longer) it has been beyond frustrating to watch the continent's lotus-eating elites become increasingly unaware of the perils of the world around them. The first step in dealing with a problem is to acknowledge that you have one. That Europe is so late waking up to its strategic folly is the fault of its gormless leadership. As for the imagery, we aim to keep it lively. Greetings from both me and the (battle-hardened) cats, John
Hey thanks Rob. Yes on one level its entirely understandable, given historically how long Europe and the UK have been central to world events; the muscle memory is there. But sadly, as you point out, the policies are not. The UK in particular must aspire to more than managed decline of a big over-regulated state, net zero lunacy, and limited aspirations. Here's hoping. Have a great weekend yourself!
Bureaucracy is a bad European system of government, created by the use of
permanent public officials, a system that does not, should not, and cannot exist in England.
Palmerston to Queen Victoria, 1837
This hasn't aged well, but it does speak to us down the ages.
J.D. Vance at the Munich Conference quoting John Paul II: "Non tenete paura!"
The European elite is very afraid of its own voters.
The "Europe" that actually worked (with ups and downs), for a surprisingly long era, was the Holy Roman Empire. Heiliges Roemisches Reich Deutscher Nation was its official title. It included North Italy up to Rome (with the pope anointing the emperor and the emperor "fidei defensor" defending the catholic faith and Rome and Italy's safety). In certain eras it stretched deep into slavic nations (surviving for another century as the Austrian-Hungarian Koenig und Kaiser arrangement). The capital moved from Aachen to Nuernberg, Praha and Vienna amongst others. In other eras it included through Habsburg family crowns (though never legally) Iberia (Spain & some time Portugal; the greatest emperor Charles the V, born in Gent, Flanders, died in a monastery, San Jeronimo de Yuste, in Spain where he retired when the military horse & saddle which were his life became too much for his aging bones). It was immensely successful (despite having been affected by the religious discords - the Thirty Years War devastated Germany - and beaten on the battlefield a number of times - often enough by the competitive French, which was a Grande Nation once, times past!) It even expanded successfully (though never legally) to the British isles when the Hanoverians landed the top job in London.
It was intellectually and philosophically etched onto the earlier Roman empire and onto the catholic model of religion under a single church headed by the pope, with the emperor - primus inter pares supposedly - enacting defence, united economy (the landed estates - latifundia - for agricultural punch and Roman-wide trade across the Mediterannean, the rivers and the legionnaire roads in Europe) and political & social power, even Roman law everywhere. Outdoors of my London Wall office, there are the typical flat Roman bricks which made the Walls of Roman Londinium. You will find the same flat Roman bricks in (I-)stan-bul or (Con-)stan(-tino-)pol(-is) as here. Worth reading your Gibbon and your Mommsen again (which will take you the better part of 2025).
Let's skip the 3rd attempt, which militarily froze to death in Russia (bit like now) & the 4th attempt, which was over in a Blitz. Inbetween Klemens Fuerst von Metternich did a good job accommodating a somewhat consensual Europe of Nations (Kissinger's PhD thesis in case you are interested; Herr Dr. Kissinger became a lifelong balance-of-power practitioner following Metternich's diplomatic recipes).
The 5th attempt, self-destroyed in an obese expansion to the East (a Major and Blair plot to dilute the EU into an unmanageable mess) and picking a single currency, eliminating all economic resilience of the component parts, also destroying the best central bank ever - the original Deutsche Bundesbank of D-Mark fame.
Hey Kieran, yes, I must admit as a human it is if 20 years of crying in the wilderness has rather suddenly been vindicated; I don't quite know how to react to it. True, the only possible way forward for Europe is confederal, as that is the only option that has the political legitimacy to do the tough things to get the continent going again. Everything else is just a one-way ticket to nowhere and even more irrelevance. Vast swathes of Europe have voted for their nation first, the EU second. Only otherworldly Brussels bureaucrats disagree. Now is the time for choosing, but any other choice will end in disaster.
Well I do hope you are enjoying a few pints of Guinness. The wait was worth it, drink it in! As humans, if we can’t celebrate our successes what else can we do?
Entirely agree Kieran, it is essential to celebrate during victory and console during defeats (Guinness helps with both)
I can feel your sense of vindication, John. Many congratulations!
The nations that make up the EU can only function as a confederacy, never a federal state. That much is clear (proof in the voting pudding). But how can it be called a union when its members refuse to be bound like one? Maybe the EU should return to the EC once again. These nations must be recognised for their unique strengths and idiosyncrasies, not forced into an impotent, homogenised, and stifling federal model. This is a Rubicon moment for the EU, a time to get real and sort itself out.
With the US pulling the life support, Europe faces a cold plunge into reality. If it embraces its confederal nature and builds upon its diversity instead of continuing to straightjacket itself, maybe the European dream still has some legs. After all, Europe is still a magnificent place, even with the Parisians in it.
Will be fascinating to see the European response to this week’s work…
Thanks. It all sounds sadly accurate, especially EU leaders being completely blind to where they are. You left us with some quite memorable mental visions: you stabbing yourself in the eye whilst reading The Guardian, and you and the cats defending your front door against invaders!
Thanks John, another great podcast. A fairly sad reminder of how far Europe has fallen. I am not surprised though that they cannot accept the inevitable changes that are coming, it is the same in the UK. People don't like to let go of the past. Anyway, thanks again and have a great weekend :-)
Thanks John!!!! Can’t wait to read comment section and also for the shout out!!!
I think end of the day Trump & Vance will be more interested in developing a good relationship or - in case too difficult - at least a modus vivendi & a modus operandi with China, India and Russia and quite simply drop Europe off the call list.
A BRICS with 4 members. I let Goldman Sachs look for the best acronym.
A (flawed) analogy with what Richard Nixon did with Viet Nam (but still useful): Vietnamization - declare it a local issue, hand over to the ARVN, pull the US out.
I think Putin wants to wear it out as much as he can, acquiring more territory and reducing Ukraine (in territory, in economy and in demographics). Czech baristas and cloak room girls are Ukrainian young ladies, who happily took up the war to leave the country (I tried speaking Russian seeing their Cyrillic mobile phones but they replied in the Ukrainian dialect).
Besides, the longer term is that Ukraine is useless to Europe (as it is to the US) and really only Russia has a vested interest in economically developing Ukraine, linking it up over the Black Sea to the Middle East, Asia and Africa. So it was for Stalin, so it is for Putin and so it will be for the next fellow. Ukraine in Europe is a border land, off the beaten track, not on anyone's roadmap to anywhere, but for Russia.
Same thing for the Baltics really, NATO or NOT-O. Those 3 countries are emptying, quickly, and the demographics and emigration lead to zero population, some time this century. Only Russian speakers remain (even increase with immigration), providing services and solutions to the larger Russian hinterland which is the only intrinsic economic driver there, barring massive EU subsidies (which land in corrupt pockets, what else could happen).
If Europe tries to integrate those territories harder, they waste no end of money with the outcome that the local population emigrates westwards more quickly, precipitating the outcome.
Short term, demographics does not matter. Long term, nothing but demographics matters.
Bottom line Erik, you are entirely right in that Ukraine will always matter more to Russia than it does to either Europe or the US. This interest-based realist view makes the Wilsonian clamouring about it so self-defeating; we look weak for absolutely no reason. The fault of Biden and Brussels, but there it is
Trump is moving Putin back into ... well, not the "Western" camp..., but into the US camp.
See, Trump's composure at the homecoming welcome in the White House of a US drugs trader (a US teacher in regular life) caught in Russia. Very diplomatic, very political and very, very smart.
That must worry Xi Jin Ping.
Wrapping up the Ukraine war may give this approach a lot more legs.
Yes, its surely the only way the Russia play can strategically over time even have a chance, a 'reverse Nixon' has been whispered about. That goes nowhere with the Ukraine War on. With it off.....
So much to study