You are spot on - Elon is absolutely right about that big, beautiful bill. Extremely disappointing that the Republicans rail on the Dems for four years for overspending and adding to the deficit, and then get back into power and try to do the same thing. And Thomas Massie and a few others are the only ones that have a backbone to stand up to the monolith... John G is on point by saying that Congress are all about cutting spending unless it impacts their own district; and so because they all act that way, nothing ever gets cut... just more 1,000 page bills and pork barrel spending... SAD!
Does this mean that some degree of personal sacrifice must be accepted for the greater good? Is that counterintuitive to realism on its own? Morgenthau needs to come along for the ride!
Kieran, in a mad rich here, but no I dont think personal sacrifice is counterintuitive to realism; you answer your own conundrum. Morgenthau certainly didn’t.
Hi John, hope all’s going well. Popcorn is out as Elon develops a nasty case of TDS. Perhaps some of the realism strategies feel like they’re beginning to tire, but only because they lack the effervescence of a Morgenthau collar. DOGE might be the perfect example.
Kieran, sorry again in a mad dash, but realism isn’t failing here; the dispute is personal, fiscal and domestic. It’s important to describe things as they are. Over foreign policy (and here Musk has little interest) both are surely realists. It’s been fax basting thanks; I’ll do a substack for the community on the trip once I’m back but a few intense days to go!
I know this has been discussed and shut down before, and I appreciate there is precedent for it failing, but perhaps we are now in uncharted waters. And since I have nothing to lose, I will say it. I believe it is remotely feasible that Elon could start a true centralist party, one that could push aside the Democrats and directly challenge the Republican Party. He has the resources to do it, and the sense of betrayal he may feel could be an incredible source of motivation.
Kieran, I think the personal sacrifice is Realism on the micro level and not counterintuitive. Elon is practicing his free speech, but I wish they would have this dispute behind closed doors, the world is watching and it makes us look weak.
I thought about what John G said when I read that tax credits for electric vehicles were excluded from the BBB…is that a reason for Elons public attacks on Trump? I think it’s a fair question….
Yes Terri. I agree. Very petty putting the laundry out in public. Still, it was quite predictable that a teenage tantrum would eventually be on the cards. Too many chefs in that kitchen.
Soros bills the federal government and then passes through that money to the democrats.
Not a cent of Soros $ goes to the democrats: it's all taxpayers money passing through, for cover-up, bribery. (In fact, he went bust on funding the "Soros university" in Budapest, since then, all the rest is a cover-up for government funding.)
Ultimately, it comes down to Trump. He can continue to set the focus and the program, the direction. So did Reagan. Trump has the right character for it: he does not like left or right, he looks in the mirror and makes decisions.
John and John, I had to revisit this again today. Over the last 24 hours this partnership has imploded, both exchanging barbs over policy and ego. I am not sure who has more to lose, but there will be some loss. Both are disruptors, and enjoy it. and both are passionate about their missions. Calm, non emotional interactions would have been a much better option for both men. I question is someone behind the scene starring the pot in this?
Hope the War Games have gone brilliantly!! I look forward to your next discussion on this deteriorating relationship.
Hi John and John. As you say, it is clear that his initial ambitions were set far too high and the promised savings have fallen well short of expectations. There is no doubt he is an incredibly talented individual but, as Erik says, he is needed back to steady his own ships.
His remarks about the “beautiful bill” are damning, even if emotionally charged, and they carry weight given his status as king of the private sector. When his memoirs eventually appear they will no doubt make for fascinating reading. It will be interesting to see how his omission influences Trump voters, given the power of the Elon badge.
Hey there Kieran, hope all is well:)... remember shoo t for the stars, and be happy with the moon? I do not think Elon has regrets nor do Trump and company... much more to evolve.
May I ask.. Where are the photo's of Lawrence's home?.. would like to see.. and what's on the current play list at the moment? Best to you, always.
Photo's and your journey are stunning...Kieran the weekend venture you took is absolute incredible. I am so thrilled for you:) Showing like you had the time of your life, beautiful on so many levels! Thank you for sharing with us.
Thank you, Dianne. It really was an incredible trip, although exhausting at times. Definitely good for the soul. I hope the resolution of the shots is high enough to make out the text in them. He truly was an enigmatic and reclusive figure. All the best,
Reprivatisation on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is being discussed now. I would toss in Ginnie Mae, which was never private in the past (even before the Credit Crisis).
With some guarantee to improve affordability of housing, but a 5% risk retention (as for securitisations, where originators need to retain at least 5% skin in the game).
I think Elon is needed back at his companies, they were losing momentum, growth, focus without his constant attention and drive. That is no surprise to me. This was always going to happen.
He has fierce competitors: just think about Toyota for Tesla. Tesla is nowhere near in the clear. Nor is Twitter/X: no profits really. Bought for a tonne of debt. The numbers were all of them turning south, he had in truth no choice. Private competition is fierce.
I think my hypothesis (that the Musk conglomerate is not doing that well financially) triggering Elon's exit from Washington DC to take charge of his own sprawling conglomerate. It has too much going on in too many different branches, is struggling with growth, income and profitability, and he is running out of cash left and right. He was with his back against the wall and cannot afford to holiday in DC for 4 years.
Twitter or X or whatever you want to call it was overpriced at $44 billion and the financing is a huge drain on Elon. Tesla sales struggle in a market where frankly everyone can make batteries, and it is not yet the bulk market (oil & gas still rule the world). The day the bulk car market switches to batteries, Toyota and Volkswagen make far more cars from a scalable global platform and it is simple to delay the switch for the market maturing.
Elon borrowed substantial loans at double digit % rates from a distressed debt fund in which I have a stake. I wish the man success though (but I expect to get my double digit interest rates paid on time).
Wow. I need to look up that work from Aristotle on how republics vote for too many benefits and eventually go into decline. This is exactly what I've believed for a long time about developed countries. We've already reached that situation where we've hit the point on the Laffer curve that we can't really gain much more money from taxes. Hearing that no one in Washington and probably Westminster really cares about this makes me want to give up on politics to be honest. And the situation is actually getting worse because populists are probably even less supportive of spending cuts. Better to invest in my time into other things like writing...☹️
Phil, there is plenty of taxation that gets uncollected. Huge amounts of tax evasion from onshore in the state of Delaware to places like the Cayman Islands. Also companies choose countries in the EU, like Ireland, to declare their profits as the corporation tax rate is the lowest. Companies like Amazon and Apple won't repatriate billions of dollars because they'll be hit by US taxes.
Looking forward to seeing your manifesto of less spending Phil. Who gets less? Health, Education, Defence or perhaps that pesky Judiciary who enforce business contracts? ;)
Most of the spending is taken up by three things: 1) pensions, 2) education and 3) health.
1) For starters, pensions are ludicrous. The triple lock means that pensions get increased above wages. This is ludicrous since many pensions also own properties, whereas younger people can no longer afford to buy a property. 99% of younger people in London cannot afford a property in London without help from parents. Problem is any government that tries to change this will lose votes from among the elderly. But this situation will have to change. The nature of demography means that in the next 20 years I believe there will not be enough people of working age to support all the pensioners.
2) In terms of the amounts of money that gets spent on education, I don't see it as necessary. For example: the situation with degrees is ridiculous. Most of what we are taught in degrees will never be of any use in the workplace. The situation has become crazy where you just have to pay for the “degree” status to get a job even though the degree was useless. I don't see why you can't be trained in the workplace whilst on the job. PWC is doing well with this kind of thing.
3) As for the NHS, well, both Switzerland and Israel have insurance-based systems that are exceptional and they save a lot more lives than the NHS. Moving to an insurance based system would definitely help the situation in the UK.
Unfortunately as Aristotle said, when countries start experiencing a lot of growth, they start demanding immense amounts of spending until the point that it stops growth. Unfortunately I'm starting to believe we can't reverse this. There's no manifesto for changing it because no government is able to bring these changes about because they will lose the votes.
Hi JohnH and John G..I do not see Musk's exit as a failure. Musk framed this as planned transition... working remotely while his team, lead with with figures like Ramaswamy, Gleason and Davis drive DOGE forward the vision and strategies and remain focused on disruption, audit, and CUTS, along with tireless efforts.The DOGE success depends on Trumps support and public demands.... As I see it the support for Elon remains strong., and this is important. I am not seeing this as an end, more of a beginning. Just my thoughts. More to come in my minds eye.
And an additional add on is the AI race and Energy needed to power, critical to the US dominance and success.... This is a fluid multi dimensional chess game.
That's a race we lost in Europe, with the most expensive energy and electric power in the world. Yet the fools cannot drop decarbonisation. Too much wind and solar money in politician's pockets.
I have mentioned this before that the debt frightens me and it truly does.
The house Republican just voted to add another 4 trillion to debt ceiling so we can pay the interest on the debt…. the INTEREST
I fully supported Elon, so disappointed for him
Those whining complainers who couldn’t take a few minutes to write a couple sentences about what they do… I do it every year for my job
“To be great is to be misunderstood..” Thank you Elon! And also thanks for Neuralink, another great company that will help a lot of people
You are spot on - Elon is absolutely right about that big, beautiful bill. Extremely disappointing that the Republicans rail on the Dems for four years for overspending and adding to the deficit, and then get back into power and try to do the same thing. And Thomas Massie and a few others are the only ones that have a backbone to stand up to the monolith... John G is on point by saying that Congress are all about cutting spending unless it impacts their own district; and so because they all act that way, nothing ever gets cut... just more 1,000 page bills and pork barrel spending... SAD!
Does this mean that some degree of personal sacrifice must be accepted for the greater good? Is that counterintuitive to realism on its own? Morgenthau needs to come along for the ride!
Kieran, in a mad rich here, but no I dont think personal sacrifice is counterintuitive to realism; you answer your own conundrum. Morgenthau certainly didn’t.
Hi John, hope all’s going well. Popcorn is out as Elon develops a nasty case of TDS. Perhaps some of the realism strategies feel like they’re beginning to tire, but only because they lack the effervescence of a Morgenthau collar. DOGE might be the perfect example.
Kieran, sorry again in a mad dash, but realism isn’t failing here; the dispute is personal, fiscal and domestic. It’s important to describe things as they are. Over foreign policy (and here Musk has little interest) both are surely realists. It’s been fax basting thanks; I’ll do a substack for the community on the trip once I’m back but a few intense days to go!
That would be great, John. I do not think it is failing. I just believe it could be far more effective with Morgenthau on board.
Also Kieran…please share your Friday soundtrack
This one is so laid back it is horizontal; https://music.youtube.com/watch?v=prnvf586V68&si=BHuZ-xwYDEflZ2Cl
Love that! Thanks for sharing!
I know this has been discussed and shut down before, and I appreciate there is precedent for it failing, but perhaps we are now in uncharted waters. And since I have nothing to lose, I will say it. I believe it is remotely feasible that Elon could start a true centralist party, one that could push aside the Democrats and directly challenge the Republican Party. He has the resources to do it, and the sense of betrayal he may feel could be an incredible source of motivation.
Hi Kieran,I was alerted that Khruangbin, will be playing in Gunnersbury Park London 15th of August 2025:)
Thank you, Dianne. I saw them in London last year and would absolutely love to see them again. I will definitely try to get tickets.
Kieran, I think the personal sacrifice is Realism on the micro level and not counterintuitive. Elon is practicing his free speech, but I wish they would have this dispute behind closed doors, the world is watching and it makes us look weak.
I thought about what John G said when I read that tax credits for electric vehicles were excluded from the BBB…is that a reason for Elons public attacks on Trump? I think it’s a fair question….
Yes Terri. I agree. Very petty putting the laundry out in public. Still, it was quite predictable that a teenage tantrum would eventually be on the cards. Too many chefs in that kitchen.
Soros does not give money to the democrats.
Soros bills the federal government and then passes through that money to the democrats.
Not a cent of Soros $ goes to the democrats: it's all taxpayers money passing through, for cover-up, bribery. (In fact, he went bust on funding the "Soros university" in Budapest, since then, all the rest is a cover-up for government funding.)
Ultimately, it comes down to Trump. He can continue to set the focus and the program, the direction. So did Reagan. Trump has the right character for it: he does not like left or right, he looks in the mirror and makes decisions.
correct!
John and John, I had to revisit this again today. Over the last 24 hours this partnership has imploded, both exchanging barbs over policy and ego. I am not sure who has more to lose, but there will be some loss. Both are disruptors, and enjoy it. and both are passionate about their missions. Calm, non emotional interactions would have been a much better option for both men. I question is someone behind the scene starring the pot in this?
Hope the War Games have gone brilliantly!! I look forward to your next discussion on this deteriorating relationship.
Hi John and John. As you say, it is clear that his initial ambitions were set far too high and the promised savings have fallen well short of expectations. There is no doubt he is an incredibly talented individual but, as Erik says, he is needed back to steady his own ships.
His remarks about the “beautiful bill” are damning, even if emotionally charged, and they carry weight given his status as king of the private sector. When his memoirs eventually appear they will no doubt make for fascinating reading. It will be interesting to see how his omission influences Trump voters, given the power of the Elon badge.
Hey there Kieran, hope all is well:)... remember shoo t for the stars, and be happy with the moon? I do not think Elon has regrets nor do Trump and company... much more to evolve.
May I ask.. Where are the photo's of Lawrence's home?.. would like to see.. and what's on the current play list at the moment? Best to you, always.
Hi Dianne,
All good here thank you. I put a link in the last Lawrence Substack, but here it is again, hopefully it works.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/csLnCmkhLbr6qqTJA
Photo's and your journey are stunning...Kieran the weekend venture you took is absolute incredible. I am so thrilled for you:) Showing like you had the time of your life, beautiful on so many levels! Thank you for sharing with us.
Thank you, Dianne. It really was an incredible trip, although exhausting at times. Definitely good for the soul. I hope the resolution of the shots is high enough to make out the text in them. He truly was an enigmatic and reclusive figure. All the best,
Kieran, you captured it all perfectly. Thank you again for sharing this journey
Thanks Kieran, I should have realized that's where it would be.
I will take a look now.
As for the play list; War on Drugs - Occasional Rain. Very topical for me right now!
Those photos are fantastic!
Hello Terri, What an amazing trip for Kieran. So happy for him!
Kieran, understood!. I really enjoy this bands music and lyrics. Thanks for introducing their music to me.
Not familiar with them, but love that you shared your soundtrack! I will look them up
Me too
Think back to the Reagan period.
You have to front Congress with huge deficits to force them to cut spend.
So cut taxes (and the economy grows: there is no harm in cutting taxes).
Then, with the back against the wall, there will be piecemeal reductions in spend, fought with tooth and nail.
Put Congress with their butt naked on the grass, that's the only way they will cut spending. This was always going to be the case.
Nonetheless keep on DOGEing, keep on pressing for cuts.
Reprivatisation on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is being discussed now. I would toss in Ginnie Mae, which was never private in the past (even before the Credit Crisis).
With some guarantee to improve affordability of housing, but a 5% risk retention (as for securitisations, where originators need to retain at least 5% skin in the game).
I think Elon is needed back at his companies, they were losing momentum, growth, focus without his constant attention and drive. That is no surprise to me. This was always going to happen.
He has fierce competitors: just think about Toyota for Tesla. Tesla is nowhere near in the clear. Nor is Twitter/X: no profits really. Bought for a tonne of debt. The numbers were all of them turning south, he had in truth no choice. Private competition is fierce.
I think my hypothesis (that the Musk conglomerate is not doing that well financially) triggering Elon's exit from Washington DC to take charge of his own sprawling conglomerate. It has too much going on in too many different branches, is struggling with growth, income and profitability, and he is running out of cash left and right. He was with his back against the wall and cannot afford to holiday in DC for 4 years.
Twitter or X or whatever you want to call it was overpriced at $44 billion and the financing is a huge drain on Elon. Tesla sales struggle in a market where frankly everyone can make batteries, and it is not yet the bulk market (oil & gas still rule the world). The day the bulk car market switches to batteries, Toyota and Volkswagen make far more cars from a scalable global platform and it is simple to delay the switch for the market maturing.
Elon borrowed substantial loans at double digit % rates from a distressed debt fund in which I have a stake. I wish the man success though (but I expect to get my double digit interest rates paid on time).
Wow. I need to look up that work from Aristotle on how republics vote for too many benefits and eventually go into decline. This is exactly what I've believed for a long time about developed countries. We've already reached that situation where we've hit the point on the Laffer curve that we can't really gain much more money from taxes. Hearing that no one in Washington and probably Westminster really cares about this makes me want to give up on politics to be honest. And the situation is actually getting worse because populists are probably even less supportive of spending cuts. Better to invest in my time into other things like writing...☹️
Phil, there is plenty of taxation that gets uncollected. Huge amounts of tax evasion from onshore in the state of Delaware to places like the Cayman Islands. Also companies choose countries in the EU, like Ireland, to declare their profits as the corporation tax rate is the lowest. Companies like Amazon and Apple won't repatriate billions of dollars because they'll be hit by US taxes.
Let's be honest, I'm very pro-tax evasion. It's a form of tax cut. Which I believe will stimulate growth. It's the spending that's the problem.
Looking forward to seeing your manifesto of less spending Phil. Who gets less? Health, Education, Defence or perhaps that pesky Judiciary who enforce business contracts? ;)
Most of the spending is taken up by three things: 1) pensions, 2) education and 3) health.
1) For starters, pensions are ludicrous. The triple lock means that pensions get increased above wages. This is ludicrous since many pensions also own properties, whereas younger people can no longer afford to buy a property. 99% of younger people in London cannot afford a property in London without help from parents. Problem is any government that tries to change this will lose votes from among the elderly. But this situation will have to change. The nature of demography means that in the next 20 years I believe there will not be enough people of working age to support all the pensioners.
2) In terms of the amounts of money that gets spent on education, I don't see it as necessary. For example: the situation with degrees is ridiculous. Most of what we are taught in degrees will never be of any use in the workplace. The situation has become crazy where you just have to pay for the “degree” status to get a job even though the degree was useless. I don't see why you can't be trained in the workplace whilst on the job. PWC is doing well with this kind of thing.
3) As for the NHS, well, both Switzerland and Israel have insurance-based systems that are exceptional and they save a lot more lives than the NHS. Moving to an insurance based system would definitely help the situation in the UK.
Unfortunately as Aristotle said, when countries start experiencing a lot of growth, they start demanding immense amounts of spending until the point that it stops growth. Unfortunately I'm starting to believe we can't reverse this. There's no manifesto for changing it because no government is able to bring these changes about because they will lose the votes.
Hi JohnH and John G..I do not see Musk's exit as a failure. Musk framed this as planned transition... working remotely while his team, lead with with figures like Ramaswamy, Gleason and Davis drive DOGE forward the vision and strategies and remain focused on disruption, audit, and CUTS, along with tireless efforts.The DOGE success depends on Trumps support and public demands.... As I see it the support for Elon remains strong., and this is important. I am not seeing this as an end, more of a beginning. Just my thoughts. More to come in my minds eye.
Thanks John, and John G, Enjoy the cigar's !
And an additional add on is the AI race and Energy needed to power, critical to the US dominance and success.... This is a fluid multi dimensional chess game.
That's a race we lost in Europe, with the most expensive energy and electric power in the world. Yet the fools cannot drop decarbonisation. Too much wind and solar money in politician's pockets.