And I have been asking myself ever since this war began… when Americans say… “I stand with Ukraine….” what exactly does this mean? What do they want the US to do? Of course, peace is better than war, but what do they want the US to do?
This may sound naive, and I don’t even care. I am speaking for the innocent people who have died in this war. I listened to some of the phone transcripts between Nuland and Patty.. Tell me how Nuland sleeps at night??
As far as I can tell, Ukraines biggest “sins” are history and geography and I know because I looked at my map…
Thank you Kieran! It is definitely a very complicated situation and I agree with the feel good words being a reason for many.
I have thought about the kleptocracy as motivation for Putin, isn’t that a primary responsibility, keeping the oligarchs happy?
I feel that Putin thinks that Russia could be invaded, as history repeats itself. That is why he reminds me of Stalin.
It’s a terrible situation.
After the war started, Ukrainian flags were hanging everywhere, on everyone’s porch. It had a trendy feel to it. It’s easy to support a cause when you don’t have a personal stake.
Kieran, I hope you and yours are having a nice weekend!! I am make rye sourdough bread today. It’s my new hobby. I created the starter myself.
Here I will say something that you may hate me for.
Geostrategically, Stalin made the best decisions for Russia/the USSR at the outcome of the 2nd World War (he was Georgian himself, he was not ethnically Russian, Stalin is not his real name - Dzhugashvili, a typical Georgian name). Nothing new for Russia, Khruschev was Ukrainian, so was Gorbachev's wife Raisa, Shevarnadze, the last foreign minister of the USSR was also Georgian. The medieval Czars were actually Varangian Vikings, so was their pretorian guard which protected them in Novgorod and later in Moscow.
Stalin was no fool (although he was a tyrant and a criminal). His view of the world put the USSR on top for the next 45 years, his design held 45 years. Not exactly Rome, but if something survives you for decades... in one sense at least it worked. Just back from Japan, the consequences of Stalin are still being felt there, with Russia bearing on the Pacific (the Kuriles - 4 islands contain Japanese cemeteries which Japanese relatives try to visit to this day - forbidden again since 2022 at the outbreak of the hostilities in Ukraine; Sakhalin which was once Japanese Karafuto but now a very profitable gas operation with the gas being sold to Japan).
And another guy, today, makes the same calculations as Stalin did in 1945. So, Stalin's design cannot have been that irrational? Different ideology but same ambitions...? So Stalin was shrewd to say the least.
I see Putin recreating a good amount of the USSR, with a Black Sea and Caspian See free trade agreement (with Rubl and Russian banking), and establish a viable economy for it. Round it out with BRICS trading relationships, if not politically meaningful. Step by step, Putin is undoing the damage Gorbachev and Yeltsin inflicted, and I count on his successor approaching the matter no different. Should his successor do something else, let the Kreml know I'm available!
His Achilles heel is population growth, the birth rate. But that is the case for all of the developed world.
I think Russia has agency, more so than the EU does at the moment. No one loves them, but grudgingly, there is respect for their interests and viewpoints emerging. And they will not abandon a strategy that on the whole is working for them.
Hi Erik, swamped so pardon the brevity. I’d agree with some of this, though 2 codicils, one historical and one current. Do remember that Stalin was also capable of great strategic mistakes. At the beginning of Barbarossa he had a 10 day breakdown, so shocked was he at Hitler’s move. When he met the politburo he finally he thought they were coming to arrest him! So let’s not overdo him here.second, totally agree that Ukraine was led astray by Wilsonians and neos to think their pathway to the west would be effortless and smooth(again I’d commend this weeks article in compact by Reynolds, its excellent and I thought of you as I read it, detailing every stupidity (I was there frantically arguing against Georgia btw in person). But neutrality rather than merely falling into Russia’s pocket probably would have suited them best per Kieran’s comment. Sorry to stick my oar in and dash, but do read Reynolds!
Very true that Stalin was saved by the greater stupidities Hitler and the Japanese generals committed, which absolved him from his own.
As history unfolded, Stalin would rather not have had to fight Hitler. The 1939 pact (Molotov-von Ribbentrop) was meant for real by Russia/USSR and was going to be stuck to by the Russians.
He did not fight Japan much at all and declared war and concluded affairs and territorial acquisitions only in 1945.
Yes the irony historically is that Stalin, one of history’s greatest cynics, meant to live up to Molotov-Ribbentrop and was only saved by Hitler’s greater follies
Hey Terri. I think he turned the oligarchs from kingmakers into courtiers in the 90s, instruments of his power. The kleptocracy remained but under his control, and it is now in their interest to keep him happy, with the fate of those who defied him a constant reminder. Some escaped, and yes, to London. Rye bread sounds amasing, I was at the beach chasing the last of the sun here.
Their mansions in London are for sale (better than to wait for expropriation) or already sold.
They may be nominal owners of whatever they stole in the 90ies but the plans have to overlap with Russian strategic interests.
Just a handful escaped abroad with a bit of money, but they are worse off for it: their life is de facto over (Khodorkhovskii comes to mind). Skiing in Switzerland and yachting in Monaco and the Mediterranean are only fun for a short while.
Lovely turn of phrase Kieran, mind you definitely a relative drop in status from kingmaker to courtier. But then the hangman's noose or the executioner's axe is there to remind them of the new reality. An interesting thought experiment for all of us, do I stay silent and enjoy my ill-gotten gains or not? Khodorkovsky misjudged and hence paid the price, he'll be ruing the day he didn't hew to the realism school of thought.
He could have supported the Chinese strategy for Lukoil, which would have been economically right in the long run.
And how on earth do you think you can run an oil company without agreeing with the countries (in this case Russia) where you drill the stuff? It's a physical business. You live with the geological facts.
When some Americans say ‘I stand with Ukraine,’ in certain circles it must mean more than feel good words. Does it mean resisting Russian kleptocracy? In Britain we have seen what that looks like: polonium in a teapot, Novichok on a doorknob, and oligarch billions laundered through Londongrad, and abroad a 777 full of Dutch tourists blown out of the sky.
What exactly does the US expect Ukraine to do, especially after years of US and NATO meddling, surrender its backyard to an invader? The Cossack spirit does not allow for that. Cunning, perhaps, that the next move lies with Zelensky. He is now between a rock and something harder still.
Kieran, there was a whole tranche of UK/London society who were more than happy to facilitate Russian money for 30 years. The oligarchs had willing accomplices in the City to manage and cleanse their money. Real estate merchants fell over themselves to offer prime property and estates to them, private school admissions, yacht agents the list goes on. Ironically it was Putin's invasion that forced the City to scrutinize the London laundromat. It might be the 2nd generation in the US who get to go for the dream but in good old blighty money buys you a seat at the top table.
Absolutely, Misbah. London opened its arms to Russian billions, Chelsea FC proves the point and hardly anyone batted an eyelid. A stain on our society we could do without. But that is financial complicity, not polonium in a teapot or a 777 blown out of the sky. One is white collar corruption, the other is state murder and war, a false equivalence. Arrive with a boatload of money and the doors open just as quickly anywhere. EB-5s anyone?
Not suggesting an equivalence, the issues are in separate categories. But an influx of this kind of money does corrode our society and harm our democracy. Currently some sources of Arab and Chinese money could do with more scrutiny. Also the Ukrainian oligarchs have made good use of what London has to offer. Agreed that other places also welcome funds with open arms. The US dollar has been a safe haven for illicit funds for sometime.
It was always in the best interests of Ukraine to keep its relations with Russia at heart. That they did not was under US whispers in the ears, or worse. Nudelman (she calls herself Nuland to deflect from her dad the war criminal Nudelman), the ambassadors, State Department, Pentagon and CIA support.
So the Ukrainians do feel raw. They took the US bait and are now trapped and let down. Sure, there is logic in that position. To a stupid man who never realised that he was duped on purpose and that this was the trap all along.
Morning Erik. If that is right, and all this was truly premeditated, then it is not a good look at all.
I take a different view though. To me it feels less like a carefully laid trap and more a mix of incompetence and a bastardisation of ethics that ends up causing more harm than good. Perhaps more Hamlet?
Ukraine had its own reasons for turning westwards, not just US whispers but the reality of Russian pressure after Crimea and Donbas.
It is interesting to think what the implications would have been if the Ukrainians had not held hands with the Americans, but even then it is hard to see Russia ever respecting their sovereignty for long.
Senators Graham and McCann (who has now died of cancer) are on video discussing this with Ukrainian army officials. "We will be back" (in 2016) - but Clinton lost and Trump said "no new wars". A weak Biden was necessary in the Oval Office to move to implementation.
The phone calls between Nudelman and the US ambassador in Kiev in 2014 have been taped and published. Amazing the arrogance of Nudelman (Victoria Nuland), but then again, her dad never had any qualms on murdering indiscriminately either, although he specialised in murdering Romanians during the 2nd world war.
There are publications by RAND corporation (sponsored by the US defence industry) calling for the stretching of Russia so that other things could run elsewhere in the world with Russia distracted, more than 15 years old, and Ukraine is mentioned literally in these publications.
Merkel has said the same (literally) in the German press: Minsk was a trap to allow Ukraine to build up. Build up what? Their own arms, their own army, without Western support?
I don't believe for a second that Ukrainians succeed at intelligence and sabotage operations 2,000 kilometers deep in Russia without CIA and Pentagon intelligence and operational support. In fact, it is probably just Ukrainian signature to cover up what is CIA/Pentagon work to 99% and to spare the USA the public criticism for its actions, even today.
True, Russia sees this as a civil war between Russians who speak with a twot accent and other Russians who speak with a twit accent (Bilohorovka/Bilohorivka). You know what? They are right. Russians and Ukrainians have intermarried for centuries. They are doing so today (yes, in 2025). Most Ukrainian refugees (60%) have fled to family in Russia, not to Poland or Germany. They are staying with auntie in Volgograd for as long as the rockets and bombs are flying at home.
Yes, but others were saying other things at the time, such as myself and every realist I knew as is usual in dc there’s not one point of view, but a constant bureaucratic battle for supremacy. What the Reynolds piece does so well is show the victorious Wilsonians in the Democratic Party (the awful Nuland, and neocon Kagan’s wife to boot) totally continued this over policy (totally agree; it wasn’t a conspiracy they told me explicitly what they were doing and anyone else who would listen) and enhanced it! One of the best narrative pieces of the year in making this crystal clear; it reads like a thriller
If the strategy were really that coherent, why resort to tactics like forced child transfers that only undermine legitimacy and breed long-term resentment? Reliable counts show that the majority of refugees fled to Europe rather than to Russia.
How can the US credibly rally allies for its pivot against China when domestic politics are so polarised that foreign policy shifts so radically with each administration?
Nope, the United Nations stopped reporting in early 2023 because it was clear most refugees fled to Russia. This was not the story the UNHCR wanted to report, so they rather suppressed reports.
Yes, counting on the USA means that you are at risk with every US election, in particular the presidential elections. My chief reason to not give up optionality. I want something to do and good investments irrespective of who holds the upper hand in DC.
When I participated in Black Sea trade conferences, I was shocked by the hostility, or rather hatred, the Ukrainians openly showed toward the Russians. Not surprising, though, given Stalin’s program of mass murder, forced collectivization, deportation of kulaks and the Holodomor. Starting with the 2004 Orange Revolution which forced a runoff in the presidential election between pro-West Yushchenko [who was poisoned with dioxin] and pro-Russian Yanukovich, by 2013, Ukraine had become a playground for the US State Department. It was hosting thousands of US workers and affiliated NGOs working in every sector imaginable – defense, security, cultural preservation, cybersecurity, finance, agriculture, corruption monitoring, and of course - democracy and human rights! Meanwhile, crowds chanted daily for the release of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, the blonde braided “gas princess” whom Yanukovich had thrown into a dungeon. Then Yanukovich was booted and replaced by the US during the Maidan Nezalezhnosti revolt. After that, Russia took Crimea. Any rate – a long prologue and a nod to John’s allegiance to realism, to say: this is not a nice neighborhood.
Hi Ann, finally off to some much needed sleep after all this but wanted to highlight there’s a fine piece today in Real Clear Politics highlighting the neocon and Wilsonian follies in this tough neighborhood over the past generation. Not as pithy as you in laying things out, but still worth a read. Context and history are everything; thanks for this!
Yes, its timing is as perfect as it is well written. I was around for parts of this (the stupidity over Georgia in particular) but in narrative form it brilliantly lays out the totality of the debacle
Good take as always. One quote that really resonated was that diplomacy means talking to your enemies, not just your friends. It is quite frankly astonishing how this seems largely forgotten among western elites.
I fondly recall hearing - some twenty years ago - a very senior intelligence official - shocking a very liberal audience with this rather wonderful quote on the subject of negotiations with Iran: “When we are children we are told not to speak to the gypsies in the woods - but as adults we have to speak to the gypsies in the woods”.
Thanks Jens; yes, as your excellent quote/story implies, I think it says a great deal about utopian thinkers (neocons and Wilsonians) that they think talking to your enemies implies agreeing with them. It struck me then that they must be beyond arrogant in their position, if the view is that in merely recognising another point of view you give it credence, rather than merely accepting (as your gypsy quote makes clear) its existence. The former is a way to believe in performance art, that life is a fairy tale of good and evil and that one must never talk outside of one’s comfort zone. The latter (realism) involves being an adult, making the world better as one finds it
I am trying to say this diplomatically; I deeply respect Zelenskyy's commitment to Ukraines sovereignty and the EU's steadfast support for an ally. I grow inpatient that the stark realities, many of the truths that you, John have been discussing for over a year and half and , the current evidence in Russia's sustained military presence and resource advantages that a dificult fact, but realty...Compromise of territory concessions will end this. How and and when wiill Zelenskyy be able to come to this understanding?
Well, we ought to find out this key question Monday, when Zelensky and the Europeans meet with the President at the White House. If territory swaps (and the whispers are that for Donetsk Putin is prepared to freeze things in place I the two southern provinces) are not on the cards, it will be a very short and explosive meeting. So, analytically, things are moving
That is so true..On a foreign policy level, it is how treaties are created and enforced. What is Trump supposed to do, ignore Putin?
On a personal level, talking to “enemies” is the cornerstone of adulthood. There will always be the customer, the colleague etc. that you have to learn to deal with. Establishing boundaries, it doesn’t mean that person is in ones “inner circle of trust..”
Exactly, Terri, I fear Wilsonians and Neo-cons lack this key facet of being an adult; you have to deal with people outside the circle of trust all the time, to make the world work
I think the stumbling block is that the Russians are still winning territory, even at an increasing pace, and Putin (and all of Russia frankly) is not interested in a Minsk 3. He probably wants to settle the matter once and for all now that the window is open: acquire all he can now and establish fresh economy with inward Russian migration there to Russify it once and for all.
Zelensky has so far been very helpful to that point of view, in always holding out for a worse deal for him later - why settle now? I suppose what is good for Ukraine, isn't good for Zelensky?
The territory acquired is carefully studied for future economic viability, both for the acquired territory, the fully Russian hinterland, and even Belarus, with ready access to the Black Sea over fast railways to sea and ocean going ports being the crucial criterion. I do think some grand proposal on a Black Sea and Caspian Sea economic free area is in the wings.
So in a broad strokes amateur way, this whole war has mostly to do with the liberal hawks and neocons ridiculous strategy of expanding NATO beyond its original intent (to get Europe back on it’s feet after WW2) in order to “strengthen” the position of the US in the world? If yes, it’s not difficult to see why Putin felt threatened. To me he seems very much like Stalin. (Please keep in mind I am not a historian or foreign policy expert)
And I have been asking myself ever since this war began… when Americans say… “I stand with Ukraine….” what exactly does this mean? What do they want the US to do? Of course, peace is better than war, but what do they want the US to do?
This may sound naive, and I don’t even care. I am speaking for the innocent people who have died in this war. I listened to some of the phone transcripts between Nuland and Patty.. Tell me how Nuland sleeps at night??
As far as I can tell, Ukraines biggest “sins” are history and geography and I know because I looked at my map…
Thank you Kieran! It is definitely a very complicated situation and I agree with the feel good words being a reason for many.
I have thought about the kleptocracy as motivation for Putin, isn’t that a primary responsibility, keeping the oligarchs happy?
I feel that Putin thinks that Russia could be invaded, as history repeats itself. That is why he reminds me of Stalin.
It’s a terrible situation.
After the war started, Ukrainian flags were hanging everywhere, on everyone’s porch. It had a trendy feel to it. It’s easy to support a cause when you don’t have a personal stake.
Kieran, I hope you and yours are having a nice weekend!! I am make rye sourdough bread today. It’s my new hobby. I created the starter myself.
Here I will say something that you may hate me for.
Geostrategically, Stalin made the best decisions for Russia/the USSR at the outcome of the 2nd World War (he was Georgian himself, he was not ethnically Russian, Stalin is not his real name - Dzhugashvili, a typical Georgian name). Nothing new for Russia, Khruschev was Ukrainian, so was Gorbachev's wife Raisa, Shevarnadze, the last foreign minister of the USSR was also Georgian. The medieval Czars were actually Varangian Vikings, so was their pretorian guard which protected them in Novgorod and later in Moscow.
Stalin was no fool (although he was a tyrant and a criminal). His view of the world put the USSR on top for the next 45 years, his design held 45 years. Not exactly Rome, but if something survives you for decades... in one sense at least it worked. Just back from Japan, the consequences of Stalin are still being felt there, with Russia bearing on the Pacific (the Kuriles - 4 islands contain Japanese cemeteries which Japanese relatives try to visit to this day - forbidden again since 2022 at the outbreak of the hostilities in Ukraine; Sakhalin which was once Japanese Karafuto but now a very profitable gas operation with the gas being sold to Japan).
And another guy, today, makes the same calculations as Stalin did in 1945. So, Stalin's design cannot have been that irrational? Different ideology but same ambitions...? So Stalin was shrewd to say the least.
I see Putin recreating a good amount of the USSR, with a Black Sea and Caspian See free trade agreement (with Rubl and Russian banking), and establish a viable economy for it. Round it out with BRICS trading relationships, if not politically meaningful. Step by step, Putin is undoing the damage Gorbachev and Yeltsin inflicted, and I count on his successor approaching the matter no different. Should his successor do something else, let the Kreml know I'm available!
His Achilles heel is population growth, the birth rate. But that is the case for all of the developed world.
I think Russia has agency, more so than the EU does at the moment. No one loves them, but grudgingly, there is respect for their interests and viewpoints emerging. And they will not abandon a strategy that on the whole is working for them.
Hi Erik, swamped so pardon the brevity. I’d agree with some of this, though 2 codicils, one historical and one current. Do remember that Stalin was also capable of great strategic mistakes. At the beginning of Barbarossa he had a 10 day breakdown, so shocked was he at Hitler’s move. When he met the politburo he finally he thought they were coming to arrest him! So let’s not overdo him here.second, totally agree that Ukraine was led astray by Wilsonians and neos to think their pathway to the west would be effortless and smooth(again I’d commend this weeks article in compact by Reynolds, its excellent and I thought of you as I read it, detailing every stupidity (I was there frantically arguing against Georgia btw in person). But neutrality rather than merely falling into Russia’s pocket probably would have suited them best per Kieran’s comment. Sorry to stick my oar in and dash, but do read Reynolds!
Very true that Stalin was saved by the greater stupidities Hitler and the Japanese generals committed, which absolved him from his own.
As history unfolded, Stalin would rather not have had to fight Hitler. The 1939 pact (Molotov-von Ribbentrop) was meant for real by Russia/USSR and was going to be stuck to by the Russians.
He did not fight Japan much at all and declared war and concluded affairs and territorial acquisitions only in 1945.
Yes the irony historically is that Stalin, one of history’s greatest cynics, meant to live up to Molotov-Ribbentrop and was only saved by Hitler’s greater follies
Hey Terri. I think he turned the oligarchs from kingmakers into courtiers in the 90s, instruments of his power. The kleptocracy remained but under his control, and it is now in their interest to keep him happy, with the fate of those who defied him a constant reminder. Some escaped, and yes, to London. Rye bread sounds amasing, I was at the beach chasing the last of the sun here.
They are all back in Moscow.
Their mansions in London are for sale (better than to wait for expropriation) or already sold.
They may be nominal owners of whatever they stole in the 90ies but the plans have to overlap with Russian strategic interests.
Just a handful escaped abroad with a bit of money, but they are worse off for it: their life is de facto over (Khodorkhovskii comes to mind). Skiing in Switzerland and yachting in Monaco and the Mediterranean are only fun for a short while.
Lovely turn of phrase Kieran, mind you definitely a relative drop in status from kingmaker to courtier. But then the hangman's noose or the executioner's axe is there to remind them of the new reality. An interesting thought experiment for all of us, do I stay silent and enjoy my ill-gotten gains or not? Khodorkovsky misjudged and hence paid the price, he'll be ruing the day he didn't hew to the realism school of thought.
Khodorkhovskii in particular acted foolishly.
He could have supported the Chinese strategy for Lukoil, which would have been economically right in the long run.
And how on earth do you think you can run an oil company without agreeing with the countries (in this case Russia) where you drill the stuff? It's a physical business. You live with the geological facts.
Yes, I reckon the question of whether to turn a blind eye and bow to corruption has tested human morality since time immemorial.
When some Americans say ‘I stand with Ukraine,’ in certain circles it must mean more than feel good words. Does it mean resisting Russian kleptocracy? In Britain we have seen what that looks like: polonium in a teapot, Novichok on a doorknob, and oligarch billions laundered through Londongrad, and abroad a 777 full of Dutch tourists blown out of the sky.
What exactly does the US expect Ukraine to do, especially after years of US and NATO meddling, surrender its backyard to an invader? The Cossack spirit does not allow for that. Cunning, perhaps, that the next move lies with Zelensky. He is now between a rock and something harder still.
Kieran, there was a whole tranche of UK/London society who were more than happy to facilitate Russian money for 30 years. The oligarchs had willing accomplices in the City to manage and cleanse their money. Real estate merchants fell over themselves to offer prime property and estates to them, private school admissions, yacht agents the list goes on. Ironically it was Putin's invasion that forced the City to scrutinize the London laundromat. It might be the 2nd generation in the US who get to go for the dream but in good old blighty money buys you a seat at the top table.
Absolutely, Misbah. London opened its arms to Russian billions, Chelsea FC proves the point and hardly anyone batted an eyelid. A stain on our society we could do without. But that is financial complicity, not polonium in a teapot or a 777 blown out of the sky. One is white collar corruption, the other is state murder and war, a false equivalence. Arrive with a boatload of money and the doors open just as quickly anywhere. EB-5s anyone?
Not suggesting an equivalence, the issues are in separate categories. But an influx of this kind of money does corrode our society and harm our democracy. Currently some sources of Arab and Chinese money could do with more scrutiny. Also the Ukrainian oligarchs have made good use of what London has to offer. Agreed that other places also welcome funds with open arms. The US dollar has been a safe haven for illicit funds for sometime.
Spot on Misbah!
The USA tricked Ukraine into this war.
It was always in the best interests of Ukraine to keep its relations with Russia at heart. That they did not was under US whispers in the ears, or worse. Nudelman (she calls herself Nuland to deflect from her dad the war criminal Nudelman), the ambassadors, State Department, Pentagon and CIA support.
So the Ukrainians do feel raw. They took the US bait and are now trapped and let down. Sure, there is logic in that position. To a stupid man who never realised that he was duped on purpose and that this was the trap all along.
Morning Erik. If that is right, and all this was truly premeditated, then it is not a good look at all.
I take a different view though. To me it feels less like a carefully laid trap and more a mix of incompetence and a bastardisation of ethics that ends up causing more harm than good. Perhaps more Hamlet?
Ukraine had its own reasons for turning westwards, not just US whispers but the reality of Russian pressure after Crimea and Donbas.
It is interesting to think what the implications would have been if the Ukrainians had not held hands with the Americans, but even then it is hard to see Russia ever respecting their sovereignty for long.
It was premeditated.
Senators Graham and McCann (who has now died of cancer) are on video discussing this with Ukrainian army officials. "We will be back" (in 2016) - but Clinton lost and Trump said "no new wars". A weak Biden was necessary in the Oval Office to move to implementation.
The phone calls between Nudelman and the US ambassador in Kiev in 2014 have been taped and published. Amazing the arrogance of Nudelman (Victoria Nuland), but then again, her dad never had any qualms on murdering indiscriminately either, although he specialised in murdering Romanians during the 2nd world war.
There are publications by RAND corporation (sponsored by the US defence industry) calling for the stretching of Russia so that other things could run elsewhere in the world with Russia distracted, more than 15 years old, and Ukraine is mentioned literally in these publications.
Merkel has said the same (literally) in the German press: Minsk was a trap to allow Ukraine to build up. Build up what? Their own arms, their own army, without Western support?
I don't believe for a second that Ukrainians succeed at intelligence and sabotage operations 2,000 kilometers deep in Russia without CIA and Pentagon intelligence and operational support. In fact, it is probably just Ukrainian signature to cover up what is CIA/Pentagon work to 99% and to spare the USA the public criticism for its actions, even today.
True, Russia sees this as a civil war between Russians who speak with a twot accent and other Russians who speak with a twit accent (Bilohorovka/Bilohorivka). You know what? They are right. Russians and Ukrainians have intermarried for centuries. They are doing so today (yes, in 2025). Most Ukrainian refugees (60%) have fled to family in Russia, not to Poland or Germany. They are staying with auntie in Volgograd for as long as the rockets and bombs are flying at home.
Yes, but others were saying other things at the time, such as myself and every realist I knew as is usual in dc there’s not one point of view, but a constant bureaucratic battle for supremacy. What the Reynolds piece does so well is show the victorious Wilsonians in the Democratic Party (the awful Nuland, and neocon Kagan’s wife to boot) totally continued this over policy (totally agree; it wasn’t a conspiracy they told me explicitly what they were doing and anyone else who would listen) and enhanced it! One of the best narrative pieces of the year in making this crystal clear; it reads like a thriller
If the strategy were really that coherent, why resort to tactics like forced child transfers that only undermine legitimacy and breed long-term resentment? Reliable counts show that the majority of refugees fled to Europe rather than to Russia.
How can the US credibly rally allies for its pivot against China when domestic politics are so polarised that foreign policy shifts so radically with each administration?
Nope, the United Nations stopped reporting in early 2023 because it was clear most refugees fled to Russia. This was not the story the UNHCR wanted to report, so they rather suppressed reports.
Yes, counting on the USA means that you are at risk with every US election, in particular the presidential elections. My chief reason to not give up optionality. I want something to do and good investments irrespective of who holds the upper hand in DC.
Kieran, I think you will find this insightful.
https://www.compactmag.com/article/how-decades-of-folly-led-to-war-in-ukraine/#
Thanks Dianne.
When I participated in Black Sea trade conferences, I was shocked by the hostility, or rather hatred, the Ukrainians openly showed toward the Russians. Not surprising, though, given Stalin’s program of mass murder, forced collectivization, deportation of kulaks and the Holodomor. Starting with the 2004 Orange Revolution which forced a runoff in the presidential election between pro-West Yushchenko [who was poisoned with dioxin] and pro-Russian Yanukovich, by 2013, Ukraine had become a playground for the US State Department. It was hosting thousands of US workers and affiliated NGOs working in every sector imaginable – defense, security, cultural preservation, cybersecurity, finance, agriculture, corruption monitoring, and of course - democracy and human rights! Meanwhile, crowds chanted daily for the release of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, the blonde braided “gas princess” whom Yanukovich had thrown into a dungeon. Then Yanukovich was booted and replaced by the US during the Maidan Nezalezhnosti revolt. After that, Russia took Crimea. Any rate – a long prologue and a nod to John’s allegiance to realism, to say: this is not a nice neighborhood.
Hi Ann, finally off to some much needed sleep after all this but wanted to highlight there’s a fine piece today in Real Clear Politics highlighting the neocon and Wilsonian follies in this tough neighborhood over the past generation. Not as pithy as you in laying things out, but still worth a read. Context and history are everything; thanks for this!
Wow. wow wow - Michael Reynolds article in RCP is brilliant, A lesson in unwavering self-destruction brought to us by blinkered ideologues. Thanks
Yes, its timing is as perfect as it is well written. I was around for parts of this (the stupidity over Georgia in particular) but in narrative form it brilliantly lays out the totality of the debacle
Thanks John, This piece analyzes the historical and geopolitical missteps leading to the conflict. Well written and factual.
It took me a while to get through it..but it does explain the backstory
Thank you for this post Ann…
Good take as always. One quote that really resonated was that diplomacy means talking to your enemies, not just your friends. It is quite frankly astonishing how this seems largely forgotten among western elites.
I fondly recall hearing - some twenty years ago - a very senior intelligence official - shocking a very liberal audience with this rather wonderful quote on the subject of negotiations with Iran: “When we are children we are told not to speak to the gypsies in the woods - but as adults we have to speak to the gypsies in the woods”.
Thanks Jens; yes, as your excellent quote/story implies, I think it says a great deal about utopian thinkers (neocons and Wilsonians) that they think talking to your enemies implies agreeing with them. It struck me then that they must be beyond arrogant in their position, if the view is that in merely recognising another point of view you give it credence, rather than merely accepting (as your gypsy quote makes clear) its existence. The former is a way to believe in performance art, that life is a fairy tale of good and evil and that one must never talk outside of one’s comfort zone. The latter (realism) involves being an adult, making the world better as one finds it
It is indeed a form of fundamentalist extremism.
I should add that it remains unclear what offended the liberals in the room most: the dissenting point of view or using the word ‘gypsy’…
Probably the latter
I am trying to say this diplomatically; I deeply respect Zelenskyy's commitment to Ukraines sovereignty and the EU's steadfast support for an ally. I grow inpatient that the stark realities, many of the truths that you, John have been discussing for over a year and half and , the current evidence in Russia's sustained military presence and resource advantages that a dificult fact, but realty...Compromise of territory concessions will end this. How and and when wiill Zelenskyy be able to come to this understanding?
Well, we ought to find out this key question Monday, when Zelensky and the Europeans meet with the President at the White House. If territory swaps (and the whispers are that for Donetsk Putin is prepared to freeze things in place I the two southern provinces) are not on the cards, it will be a very short and explosive meeting. So, analytically, things are moving
That is so true..On a foreign policy level, it is how treaties are created and enforced. What is Trump supposed to do, ignore Putin?
On a personal level, talking to “enemies” is the cornerstone of adulthood. There will always be the customer, the colleague etc. that you have to learn to deal with. Establishing boundaries, it doesn’t mean that person is in ones “inner circle of trust..”
Exactly, Terri, I fear Wilsonians and Neo-cons lack this key facet of being an adult; you have to deal with people outside the circle of trust all the time, to make the world work
Espresso is never bad!
I think the stumbling block is that the Russians are still winning territory, even at an increasing pace, and Putin (and all of Russia frankly) is not interested in a Minsk 3. He probably wants to settle the matter once and for all now that the window is open: acquire all he can now and establish fresh economy with inward Russian migration there to Russify it once and for all.
Zelensky has so far been very helpful to that point of view, in always holding out for a worse deal for him later - why settle now? I suppose what is good for Ukraine, isn't good for Zelensky?
The territory acquired is carefully studied for future economic viability, both for the acquired territory, the fully Russian hinterland, and even Belarus, with ready access to the Black Sea over fast railways to sea and ocean going ports being the crucial criterion. I do think some grand proposal on a Black Sea and Caspian Sea economic free area is in the wings.
So in a broad strokes amateur way, this whole war has mostly to do with the liberal hawks and neocons ridiculous strategy of expanding NATO beyond its original intent (to get Europe back on it’s feet after WW2) in order to “strengthen” the position of the US in the world? If yes, it’s not difficult to see why Putin felt threatened. To me he seems very much like Stalin. (Please keep in mind I am not a historian or foreign policy expert)
https://www.compactmag.com/article/how-decades-of-folly-led-to-war-in-ukraine/