I am more than confident about the firm's months-old call for Trump for all sorts of reasons (inclduhg yours); but most of all due to the 'shy Trump voter,' present in both 2016 and 2020. If the effect is even half that of the previous two elections (and it is) then the thing is over.
The statistical power of being ahead in all of the battleground states MI PA WI AZ NC GA NV is stronger than being ahead in those states individually. The "p-values" or "uncertainty intervals" are computed for the individual samples. But 7 tests pointing the same way make the sample size about 7x larger, therefore the strength of the statistical test is stronger by about square root of 7 (2.6x).
And it disorients the Harris campaign from here: having to work - firefighting - on multiple fronts.
I am more than confident about the firm's months-old call for Trump for all sorts of reasons (inclduhg yours); but most of all due to the 'shy Trump voter,' present in both 2016 and 2020. If the effect is even half that of the previous two elections (and it is) then the thing is over.
The statistical power of being ahead in all of the battleground states MI PA WI AZ NC GA NV is stronger than being ahead in those states individually. The "p-values" or "uncertainty intervals" are computed for the individual samples. But 7 tests pointing the same way make the sample size about 7x larger, therefore the strength of the statistical test is stronger by about square root of 7 (2.6x).
And it disorients the Harris campaign from here: having to work - firefighting - on multiple fronts.