The world’s three major political risks come into focus:
1) The Chinese Communist Party’s 100th birthday was quite a sight. Giving what can only be described as a fire-breathing speech while wearing a (none-too-subtle) Mao suit, Paramount Leader Xi Jinping did nothing to calm the horses, demanding the world let China do as it pleases in Xinjiang province, Hong Kong, and (especially perilously) Taiwan. He trumpeted that by 2045 China will be the globe’s dominant power. There can be no two ways about it: the Sino-American Cold War is in full bloom.
2) The parliamentary machinations over President Biden’s infrastructure bill should not obscure the larger political risk point that the ambitious administration is aiming to become one of the most consequential domestic presidencies of modern times (along with FDR, LBJ, and Reagan). The three major Biden bills—the already-passed Covid relief bill, the currently debated infrastructure bill, and a yet-to-be-determined Democratic wish-list bill—would put 6-8 trillion new dollars of government spending into circulation. This is sure to put gasoline on an already-raging fire of pent-up US demand. Biden seems likely to wake the beast of global inflation.
3) Lost in the lazy European summer is the key policy notion going forward of where consistent, two-percent GDP growth will be found. Germany, which is likely to remain in thrall to moribund Merkellism after the election of Armin Laschet as Chancellor in September, doesn’t have any policy answers, beyond getting through the day. A besieged Emmanuel Macron, fighting off both rising Gaullist Xavier Bertrand as well as Marine Le Pen, has halted his reform program, for fear of offending anyone. With the weak Socialist Spanish government mired in the Catalan issue, and both Italy and Poland inward-looking, there seems no viable engine for European growth on the horizon.
3 Things to Think About Today (July 2nd)
3 Things to Think About Today (July 2nd)
3 Things to Think About Today (July 2nd)
The world’s three major political risks come into focus:
1) The Chinese Communist Party’s 100th birthday was quite a sight. Giving what can only be described as a fire-breathing speech while wearing a (none-too-subtle) Mao suit, Paramount Leader Xi Jinping did nothing to calm the horses, demanding the world let China do as it pleases in Xinjiang province, Hong Kong, and (especially perilously) Taiwan. He trumpeted that by 2045 China will be the globe’s dominant power. There can be no two ways about it: the Sino-American Cold War is in full bloom.
2) The parliamentary machinations over President Biden’s infrastructure bill should not obscure the larger political risk point that the ambitious administration is aiming to become one of the most consequential domestic presidencies of modern times (along with FDR, LBJ, and Reagan). The three major Biden bills—the already-passed Covid relief bill, the currently debated infrastructure bill, and a yet-to-be-determined Democratic wish-list bill—would put 6-8 trillion new dollars of government spending into circulation. This is sure to put gasoline on an already-raging fire of pent-up US demand. Biden seems likely to wake the beast of global inflation.
3) Lost in the lazy European summer is the key policy notion going forward of where consistent, two-percent GDP growth will be found. Germany, which is likely to remain in thrall to moribund Merkellism after the election of Armin Laschet as Chancellor in September, doesn’t have any policy answers, beyond getting through the day. A besieged Emmanuel Macron, fighting off both rising Gaullist Xavier Bertrand as well as Marine Le Pen, has halted his reform program, for fear of offending anyone. With the weak Socialist Spanish government mired in the Catalan issue, and both Italy and Poland inward-looking, there seems no viable engine for European growth on the horizon.