That’s just one good reason to pay for the service, John. To see what is and isn’t. Those soldiers sure did look the part though. I doubt they are too bothered about trans toilet jokes on twitter either.
No, true, but they haven’t fought a war since 1979 (which they roundly lost to Vietnam), and Xi is frustrated by both their corruption and (feared) lack of loyalty to the CCP
I want to add the following information I have from the Russian-Indian oil trade.
Ural September delivery selling two $ below Brent crude is a couple of $ above West Texas Intermediate. I.e. Russia makes market prices on their sales to India.
Thanks for this Erik. With a full cycle breakeven of about 30 USD per barrel, compared with Brent near 45 and US shale around 65, Moscow captures far more margin even if discounting to India. It’s money for old rope.
In the margin of the meeting in Bei Jing this past week, another gas pipeline (Power Siberia 2) was agreed between Russia and China, to run over Mongolia (Mongolia sat at the table too). So, maybe it was not all talk.
Increasing supplies through Siberia 1 is targeted as well, about 15% extra for 2026 compared to 2025.
India could buy more from the ME, but it would be a disadvantage not to use the leverage. Russia accepts rupees, has a diplomatic footprint in India, and its heavier crude suits India’s complex refineries, which can process it competitively for a wider product slate. It also gives Delhi leverage against OPEC, with Saudi Arabia at its core. For now, I reckon India’s crude purchasing reflects its deliberately neutral stance.
Last bit from me, Terri. Despite ultra low extraction costs, ME producers face high fiscal breakeven points from hydrocarbon dependence which limits how much they can sell at today’s prices. Gulf leaders are therefore desperate to diversify revenue streams beyond hydrocarbons, with Saudi’s Misvision 2030 as the flagship. Oil here is cheap to pump but costly to govern.
Kieran is right about Russia accepting rupees for its oil sales, but the rupee is not easily converted so Rosneft is investing these rupees in Indian refining capacity. India is the world’s second largest refined fuel exporter, behind the US at number one, so we are talking big money here.
No chasing rainbows or getting sidetracked with butterflies, really appreciated the focus here. This highlights the power of intuitive analysis for all of us; sometime its about a Deep Think, other times is just a wink/blink and a yawn, and most importanly knowing the difference. John, and Company, Thanks for steering the ship and keeping us focused. Yes, sometimes its like "herding cats".
John, which J Conrad book do you suggest to start with?
Peter Gabriel came to my ming this past weekend, Games without Frontiers.
The World War II party in China is not about the World in 1939-45 (or 1933-45 or something else still in Asia where Japan became expansionist much earlier) but about China in 2025.
So very much concur with you on this…
Keep friends close, enemies closer…that crowd is a pack waiting to unleash on the next omega wolf.
And John may have been rolling his eyes, but I was nodding my head.
That’s just one good reason to pay for the service, John. To see what is and isn’t. Those soldiers sure did look the part though. I doubt they are too bothered about trans toilet jokes on twitter either.
No, true, but they haven’t fought a war since 1979 (which they roundly lost to Vietnam), and Xi is frustrated by both their corruption and (feared) lack of loyalty to the CCP
I want to add the following information I have from the Russian-Indian oil trade.
Ural September delivery selling two $ below Brent crude is a couple of $ above West Texas Intermediate. I.e. Russia makes market prices on their sales to India.
Thanks for this Erik. With a full cycle breakeven of about 30 USD per barrel, compared with Brent near 45 and US shale around 65, Moscow captures far more margin even if discounting to India. It’s money for old rope.
In the margin of the meeting in Bei Jing this past week, another gas pipeline (Power Siberia 2) was agreed between Russia and China, to run over Mongolia (Mongolia sat at the table too). So, maybe it was not all talk.
Increasing supplies through Siberia 1 is targeted as well, about 15% extra for 2026 compared to 2025.
No other midstream option can compete with piped hydrocarbons.
Why can’t India get its oil from the Middle East? Cheaper from Russia? Mid east seems closer (according to my map! 😉)
India could buy more from the ME, but it would be a disadvantage not to use the leverage. Russia accepts rupees, has a diplomatic footprint in India, and its heavier crude suits India’s complex refineries, which can process it competitively for a wider product slate. It also gives Delhi leverage against OPEC, with Saudi Arabia at its core. For now, I reckon India’s crude purchasing reflects its deliberately neutral stance.
Last bit from me, Terri. Despite ultra low extraction costs, ME producers face high fiscal breakeven points from hydrocarbon dependence which limits how much they can sell at today’s prices. Gulf leaders are therefore desperate to diversify revenue streams beyond hydrocarbons, with Saudi’s Misvision 2030 as the flagship. Oil here is cheap to pump but costly to govern.
Kieran is right about Russia accepting rupees for its oil sales, but the rupee is not easily converted so Rosneft is investing these rupees in Indian refining capacity. India is the world’s second largest refined fuel exporter, behind the US at number one, so we are talking big money here.
Nayara situation interesting…
No chasing rainbows or getting sidetracked with butterflies, really appreciated the focus here. This highlights the power of intuitive analysis for all of us; sometime its about a Deep Think, other times is just a wink/blink and a yawn, and most importanly knowing the difference. John, and Company, Thanks for steering the ship and keeping us focused. Yes, sometimes its like "herding cats".
John, which J Conrad book do you suggest to start with?
Peter Gabriel came to my ming this past weekend, Games without Frontiers.
Note that Indians immigrate to the USA, but I have never seen one in Bei Jing, Shang Hai, Moscow or St. Petersburg.
The World War II party in China is not about the World in 1939-45 (or 1933-45 or something else still in Asia where Japan became expansionist much earlier) but about China in 2025.
Of course, Erik; its an excuse to plot, as the President said, and for a Chinese photo op to scare the credulous.