3 things to think about today (July 5th)
1) It is time to look at the world geostrategically from China’s eyes, in the aftermath of the Communist Party’s 100th anniversary. For all their advantages, to be the dominant superpower in 2045 that Xi confidently proclaims, Beijing has to break out of its geopolitical cage, either overland (BRI), to the south (Strait of Malacca/India) or to the north (Taiwan) so its commercial and naval/strategic reach cannot be bottled up. This is the arena and these are the geopolitics that will determine the outcome of the new Sino-American Cold War.
2) Predictably, without foreign troops in place artificially keeping them in power, the Afghan government’s sway continues to rapidly fall apart. As the Taliban advance across Northern Afghanistan, over 300 government troops have fled to Tajikistan to avoid engaging them, making a lie of the notion that the corrupt and incompetent Ghani government was ever capable of standing on its own feet. This debacle is not cause to stay indefinitely (as some are incredibly claiming after two decades of experience), but rather is empirical confirmation that America’s longest war has been a tragic strategic and nation-building folly, as the government lacks fundamental local legitimacy.
3) Former South African President Jacob Zuma has lashed out at his country’s judiciary, which gave him a 15 month jail term for contempt of court, following his failing to appear before a formal corruption inquiry. Zuma’s appeal of the sentence is to be heard today. Hundreds of his supporters have gathered outside Zuma’s compound to prevent his arrest, throwing into relief fundamental divisions within the ruling African National Congress (ANC) between the ex-president’s followers, and the reformist supporters of Cyril Ramaphosa, the current chief executive. Zuma’s presidency was dogged by multiple sleaze and graft scandals between 2009-2018.